Hong Kong's third-quarter export index increased by 6.9 points Guan Jiaming: Before the rain has passed, the weather calls for the Chinese market

Financial News

Written by: Kwong Yueting

2020-09-14 17:52

Last update date: 2020-09-14 17:52

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council announced that the export index for the third quarter was 25.1, an increase of 6.9 points quarter-to-quarter, an increase of 9.1 points from the historical low of the first quarter, indicating a slight improvement in exporters’ sentiment, but the index is still deep in contraction.

Kwan Ka-ming, Director of Research at the TDC, said that although the export index has improved, it is only half of the previous value. It is a long way to go if it is to return to the level of close to 50 two years ago, or even to the boundary of 50.

The TDC predicts that Hong Kong’s exports will fall by 10% this year. Guan Jiaming said that if the current trend is followed, Hong Kong’s exports "may not drop to a low level." However, there are currently uncertain factors such as the US election and Sino-US trade friction. Unable to receive orders, some worry that the United States will impose tariffs on shipments, and they are afraid to accept orders.

"The manufacturers also don't mind lowering prices. They have done a good job with loudness, so they don't dare to say that it has been raining and sunny." He continued that the epidemic in the United States and Europe has not yet eased, and fortunately the epidemic near Japan and Hong Kong has eased slightly. Therefore, he believes that in the future, it is necessary to promote domestic demand to restart the economy, and suggests that manufacturers switch to China's domestic market, especially the Greater Bay Area market.

Guan Jiaming, Director of Research of the TDC, said that Hong Kong has never benefited from the preferential arrangements of the United States in international trade. Most of the trade arrangements are the treatment that regular members of the World Trade Organization can enjoy.

Hong Kong’s economic recession is expected to pass halfway

This quarter’s employment index fell by 2.3 points to 39.8, the lowest level in the past four years. Guan Jiaming believes that Hong Kong has entered an economic recession for three consecutive quarters. As the economic recession and the duration of the epidemic increase, the employment situation in Hong Kong will get worse. Employment prospects are pessimistic, but in the past economic recessions generally lasted five to six quarters, he estimated that the current recession should be half past.

For products that the United States requires to be produced in Hong Kong, the country of origin must be marked as "China" when exported to the United States, and the "Made in Hong Kong" label must not be affixed.

Guan Jiaming said that Hong Kong-made products exported to the United States accounted for only 0.1% of total exports. The above measures did not cause much impact. However, labels of production locations cannot be changed at will. Certificates of origin are required. Product processing and manufacturing procedures must also meet certain proportions. Hong Kong There is no right to issue the "Made in China" label, so the Hong Kong government is still discussing with relevant US authorities.

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