Political situation
Author: Zheng Baosheng
2020-09-16 07:00
Last update date: 2020-09-16 07:00
Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor led a group of officials to hold a press conference this (15) afternoon to announce the anti-epidemic fund 3.0.
After the government has introduced several rounds of support measures, the deficit this year is as high as 300 billion yuan, and the fiscal reserves have fallen to about 800 billion yuan, which is about 12 to 13 months of government expenditure, which is the level of the SARS period in 2003.
The Financial Secretary, Chen Maobo, said that now that the economy is facing difficulties, the government should introduce counter-cyclical measures to create more jobs, including the construction of hospitals and the preliminary study on Lantau tomorrow.
Some analysts pointed out that the Guishan Island reclamation and housing construction plan has recently been ruined, and the government needs to relaunch the Lantau tomorrow plan. The "epidemic cycle" has just become the most "successful" reason.
Last year, the Development Bureau announced that the cost of tomorrow's Lantau would reach 624 billion yuan.
Before the project is officially finalized, a preliminary study is required to study the feasibility of the plan and detailed arrangements.
According to the information submitted by the Government to the Finance Committee of the Legislative Council in July this year, the preliminary research on Lantau tomorrow will involve an allocation of 550 million yuan.
Chen Maobo said that because of the need to support the economy and benefit the society in the long run, the preliminary study on Lantau tomorrow will proceed as planned.
According to political analysis, the government wants to increase the bet on Lantau's entry tomorrow by saving the economy after the epidemic.
Since the Chief Executive Carrie Lam Carrie Lam proposed in the 2018 policy address, the Lantau Tomorrow project has been boycotted by the democrats. In addition to the anti-amendment law turmoil that raged across the city last year, the plan has become a lot of resistance. The central government's internal research was to reclaim land on Guishan Island in Zhuhai, south of Lantau Island, and "borrow the land" for Hong Kong to build houses. It was once popular. However, recently this "Guishan Island Blueprint" has suddenly become a breeze.
Under this situation, it seems that the Hong Kong government needs to go back to the original point and re-launch Mingshan Lantau. Under the epidemic, the counter-cyclical economy needs large-scale engineering support, which naturally becomes the most convenient justification.
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However, it is still unknown whether Lantau’s 550 million preliminary research funding will successfully pass the legislative council tomorrow, because the government has not yet "counted enough votes."
At present, there are only two "business parties" who are willing to publicly support the allocation of funds, the Democratic Alliance and the Liberal Party. The two "directly elected parties" within the establishment, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong and the Federation of Trade Unions, have not yet expressed their attitudes, and seem to be interested in angering the government. Maintain "1.5 meters of social distancing," at least "pull away" at this stage, in case you follow the car too closely and affect the election of the Legislative Council next year.
In addition, between the Guishan Island Project and Tomorrow's Lantau Island, some establishments are more inclined to support the former.
New Democrat Party Chairman Ip Lau Su-yee questioned in an interview with today's "Hong Kong 01" that the preliminary research funding of "Lantau Tomorrow" will not help fight the economic counter-cycle, because the 550 million yuan of funding cannot fall into the hands of the general public. "It is only the boundary of Lu Weiguo. Not (engineering) and senior consulting companies have benefited."
She also pointed out that the current review is only the preliminary research funding. It will take a long time to see economic results. In the process, there will be more opportunities for judicial review. "It will be delayed for two or three years at any time." Therefore, this project has certain reservations.
Guan Zhuozhao believes that continuing to promote Lantau tomorrow is "far water cannot put a close fire."
(Information Picture/Photo by Zheng Zifeng)
Guan Zhuozhao: Tomorrow Lantau's return is not high and will not return until decades later
Economists also questioned that continuing to promote Lantau tomorrow is "far water cannot put a close fire."
Guan Zhuozhao, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research of Crown Lands, said that Lantau tomorrow is a long-term project. The return on capital is not high, and the cost can only be recovered after reclamation, construction and commissioning. It is too long-term for the current stretched financial structure: "It will take decades for the project to return to its cost. To say that using Lantau tomorrow to promote economic growth is a very long-term thing."
Call for the reform of the fiscal structure to solve the immediate crisis
Chen Maobo expects that the fiscal deficit will fall to about 800 billion yuan, but it is still at a steady level. He also said that in the event of another outbreak, the government still has the ability to introduce support measures again.
However, Guan Zhuozhao has different views on the government's fiscal capacity and the future success.
He said that in the early stages of Lantau tomorrow, the main benefit will only be the construction industry, and it has failed to benefit the general public in times of economic difficulties: "The structural problem of the current economy is that the aging population has continuously increased government expenditures and the tax base is narrow. In the face of economic adversity, it is difficult to stimulate the economy on a large scale, and the government can do only limited things."
Guan Zhuozhao believes that the top priority of the government is to deal with the fiscal structural crisis that will deteriorate in the next few years, strictly control the overspending of infrastructure projects, and broaden the tax base, such as the introduction of a consumption tax, to solve the immediate crisis first, rather than focusing on a few decades later. This project.
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