Interview | Hong Kong University Gao Benen analyzes that the government has missed two good opportunities for epidemic control; the fourth wave is bound to come

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Author: Chen Qianting

2020-09-17 12:00

Last update date: 2020-09-17 12:00

The third wave of the local novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is still continuing. Looking back on the development over the past two months, Benjamin Cowling, director of the Epidemiology and Biostatistics Division of the School of Public Health of the University of Hong Kong, believes that the main cause of the outbreak may be related to epidemic prevention. The measures did not take effect in time. After the authorities implemented work-at-home, the number of cases will see a decline in about 7 to 10 days. Once the anti-epidemic measures are delayed by 4 to 5 days, the number of cases is enough to double.

He predicts that the fourth wave of the epidemic will definitely come, but it is only a matter of time before, the Hong Kong government needs to learn from experience and prepare.

The epidemic has eased slightly in recent days. Gao Benn originally estimated that based on the current trend, he is expected to "return to zero" by the end of this month. However, the government will further relax its measures on Friday (18th). There have been groups and there are certain risks. It may take a little bit of luck for Hong Kong to make a safe transition.

It didn't used to be... but it's a new world. (The past was not like this... the past was not like this, but this is the new world.)

Gao Benen, director of the Epidemiology and Biostatistics Division of the School of Public Health of the University of Hong Kong, expresses the great changes in the world under the epidemic

▼The group outbreak in Lek Yuen Village, Sha Tin▼

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Missed Opportunity

After Hong Kong experienced imported cases of new pneumonia from the Mainland and overseas, the epidemic returned to a stable level in May. However, at the end of May, residents of different floors in Luquan Building, Lek Yuen Village, Sha Tin were diagnosed successively. The authorities decided to test the entire building for the virus. Finally, 11 Guests have been diagnosed.

In an interview with "Hong Kong 01", Gao Benen, director of the Epidemiology and Biostatistics Division of the School of Public Health of the University of Hong Kong, believed that the outbreak had sounded an alarm. Since the building has detected sporadic cases, it means there may be other undetected cases in the community , Or a sign of a new wave of epidemics.

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Missed opportunity 2: Anti-epidemic measures will be implemented only 5 days after the outbreak

On July 5, the emergence of two local cases of infection aroused everyone's attention; until July 7, the Director of the Food and Health Bureau, Chen Zhaoshi, met with the media and only said that the situation would be reviewed and the situation adjusted for epidemic prevention measures.

Chen Zhaoshi announced the new measures two days later, including restrictions on the number of guests in restaurants, the number of people in indoor venues, and dietary restrictions. They took effect on July 11. There was a full five-day interval from the appearance of a local case to the tightening of epidemic prevention measures.

Gao Benen believes that after the third wave of outbreaks, the government's response to the introduction of epidemic prevention measures was too slow.

(Photo by Ou Jiale)

Confirmed cases can double within 5 days

Gao Benn pointed out that the government's response was slightly delayed or that the outbreak was more serious than before.

He explained that the data in July showed that after the government implemented new anti-epidemic measures, especially after announcing the arrangements for civil servants to work from home, about 7 to 10 days later, the number of cases turned down.

He believes that even when the epidemic is stable, the sporadic invisible transmission chain in society will be stopped by epidemic prevention measures.

He continued that if society lacks epidemic prevention measures, the number of confirmed cases can already double in only 4 to 5 days.

Even though most Hong Kong people wear masks, past experience has proven that wearing masks alone is not enough to control the epidemic, and timely epidemic prevention measures are required.

▼Reopening of premises and relaxation measures starting on September 18▼

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It is expected that the reopening of the bar K room is difficult to expect to "return to zero" at the end of this month

On the 15th of this month, it ushered in the third wave of zero local infections for the first time. There are not many hidden cases of Gaobenen. It was originally expected that the diagnosis could be “returned to zero” by the end of September. However, the government will push for a new round of relaxation, bars, karaokes and other places. Reopening, or prolonging the third wave of the epidemic, is difficult to estimate when it will end.

He confessed that he is worried about the reopening of bars and karaoke. Because groups of these places have appeared in the past, there is a certain risk of reopening, or the situation of "one pass one hundred" in bar groups will appear again. Hong Kong may need a little luck. A rebound of the epidemic can be avoided.

However, he agrees that Hong Kong's economy has been hit, so any measures should achieve the greatest anti-epidemic effect in the shortest time, so as to minimize the impact on the economy.

This relaxation does not include the gathering restriction order. Gao Benen believes that the original intention of the gathering restriction was the diagnosis after a group dinner, but he pointed out that bars, swimming pools, etc. have already been reopened, or the maximum number of gatherings is relaxed at the right time.

The fourth wave of revisiting Hong Kong government must respond more quickly

Experts from various places expect that the new crown epidemic will coexist with humans repeatedly. Gao Benen agreed that the fourth wave of epidemics will inevitably come. It is only a matter of time. He pointed out that the government should learn from the experience of the first three waves of epidemics, and that when the epidemic breaks again, it needs to respond more quickly. And institutions also need to be prepared to be affected by the epidemic.

In terms of border control, Gao Benn pointed out that the major principle of the tourism bubble discussed at present is that it can communicate with low-risk countries, covering countries with relatively stable epidemics and high reliability of epidemic data. The government can also adjust foreign countries according to the development of the epidemic within the mechanism. As for the high-risk areas, the government should implement more rigorous measures to prevent it.

▼Sampling situation of national inspection▼

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National testing must be mandatory to find all invisible patients　

The National Testing "Universal Community Testing Program" ended this Monday. After some unions and political parties called for boycotts, 1.78 million citizens participated in sampling, and a total of 32 confirmed cases and 10 related cases were found. The Hong Kong government spent 530 million yuan, mainly Used to hire local residents and medical staff to participate and work.

Gao Benen repeatedly questioned the cost-effectiveness of national testing. He said that he understands the government’s enthusiasm for fighting the epidemic and hopes to save the economy. However, he believes that the purpose of testing is vague. If the purpose of testing is to find all invisible patients and cut off the chain of transmission, everyone will Testing is required. If only 2 million people are tested, there are bound to be missed cases.

Gao Benen believes that in the future, resources should be concentrated on high-risk groups for testing. For example, hospital staff undergo weekly virus tests, hoping to protect the elderly who are particularly vulnerable under the new crown epidemic.

Gao Benen is a statistician who has explained the epidemic data and trend analysis to the public many times in the past few months.

(Photo by Ou Jiale)

Feeling that experts are hard to do: It's a new world

Gao Benen is a statistician who has explained the epidemic data and trend analysis to the public many times in the past few months.

At the end of August, Chief Executive Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor reprimanded "there are so-called experts and doctors" to discredit the national testing plan. Gao Benen believed that Lin Zheng was not referring to him, but he emphasized that he questioned the cost of testing and was calculated after calculation.

Gao Benen also mentioned that it has become more difficult to question policies now: "It didn't used to be... but it's a new world." (It was not like this in the past... It was not like this in the past, but this is the new world.) He admits that this situation is sometimes frustrating because the scope of his research involves judging whether public policies are good or bad. He is worried that if they tend to talk about good policies, the public will not be able to fully understand the policies and it will also increase the difficulty of their understanding.

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