09/17/2020 - 23:38
Clarín.com
Opinion
Miguel Pesce was concrete and forceful.
It occurred in an intimate meeting with the President, where he presented a categorical report on the dangerous drain on the Central Bank's reserves.
That document and the secret figures from the BCRA convinced Alberto to reinforce the controversial “super-stocks”.
The BCRA board's "paper" had hot data: it was whitewashing that net sales of dollars in August had climbed to 1,500 million.
He also warned that another 1 billion greenbacks evaporated in just a dozen days in September.
Thus, reserves tend to zero and that opens the door to the worst scenario: a Central Bank without reserves can lead to an uncontrollable inflationary acceleration.
According to the confidential data of the directory, the BCRA has only 7,600 million dollars freely available.
Pesce announced that he was not going to devalue and insisted that no more could be expected, as proposed by Minister Martín Guzmán.
The BCRA data included curious situations: the multiplication of accounts in two digital banks to buy tickets;
beneficiaries of social assistance - AFI - who bought dollars at the same time and card debtors who accumulated foreign exchange.
Also included among the arguments was the conspiracy theory to which the ruling party and Cristina is in love.
He accuses a dozen large operators of "acting against Argentina."
Thus, and in recent days, the Head of the BCRA imposed his criteria in Olivos.
Alberto replied: "The dollars have to be for production."
The measure tries to stop the exchange rate run, but does not attack the causes that generate the purchase of dollars.
Alberto did not stop capital flight this year.
The process was accelerated in the last government of Cristina and deepened in the management of Mauricio Macri.
These are antagonistic governments.
Both lacking ideas and with a similar end: in a decade, the Argentine political class was unable to put together a development plan that would generate genuine dollars.
The new turnstile slows down the exit, but also the inflow of foreign currency to the BCRA.
In addition, it affects investments.
Yesterday, the BCRA clarified that the "multis" can enter dollars without surcharge through the "cash with liqui".
These are measures with an “open flag” ending.
Because the underlying motives were not attacked.
The current exchange rate run is due to three factors that deepened the uncertainty.
The first and fundamental is political.
Cristina's advance on the Casa Rosada exacerbated fears that her pervasive ideas would take over Alberto's economy.
The President - in the last quarter - was very open to Cristina's suggestions and that frayed his mandate.
The vice president seeks revenge on her enemies and her old proposals scare away investments.
Cristina gets into everything: she objected and prevented the holding of a meeting that Guzman called with powerful businessmen.
The second influencing factor is undoubtedly the absence of a plan.
There is no roadmap and no one knows how Argentina is going to generate the genuine dollars to finance its growth.
The third factor that increases doubts is parsimony and lack of initiative in the Cabinet.
Many ministers are still "asleep" and are a drag on Alberto's administration.
The President - for this reason - takes refuge in a hard core to manage.
The decision to block the savings dollar had generated a strong internal debate and Pesce had - to prevail - the determined support of Cecilia Todesca and Mercedes Marcó del Pont.
Both - last week - endorsed the measure and the head of the AFIP proposed technical solutions for the tourniquet.
Marcó del Pont was one of the creators of the stocks in 2011.
Thus, Miguel Pesce twisted the arm of Martín Guzmán, who did not agree with the package.
Clarín exclusively anticipated - in mid-August - the dispute between the two over the implementation of the "super stock."
Initially, the BCRA had proposed the total elimination of the savings dollar.
Pesce had already warned about the dangerous drainage of bills.
It happened on Friday, August 14.
The following Saturday, Guzman demolished Pesce's ideas at a meeting in Olivos.
The minister told the President that a cut to the savings dollar implies a jump from the blue.
According to Economy it would go to 150 pesos.
Guzmán promoted a "more orthodox" solution.
He said that nothing had to hinder the closing of the foreign debt deal and that the certainty of the deal with the Wall Street “wolves” would ease the bill.
Alberto decided on a "Solomonic" truce.
That waiting time had a high cost in reservations.
In between, the Chief of Cabinet and the Palacio de Hacienda explored another idea: to unfold the exchange market.
During that period, the debt agreement was signed and the Government tried to give messages of confidence.
But nothing stopped the demand for dollars and the fall in reserves.
Pesce charged again.
It was last week when he spoke to the President.
Alberto blessed - in the end - the measure of the BCRA.
Before there was a negotiation, so that Guzmán would not be snubbed.
In the end, a hybrid came out.
Pesce managed to impose the restrictions and tighten the stocks to the maximum: 80% of those who bought savings dollars will not be able to do so again until the end of the year.
But Guzmán prevented the BCRA from implementing the original idea: totally eliminate the savings dollar.
On the other hand, the measures open a virtual exchange split: by placing strong restrictions on companies and forcing them to renegotiate 60% of their debts by the financial market.
Guzmán - the same - took distance from the package: the announcement was going to be joint and, in the end, Pesce put his face in a solitary way.
In other words: the BCRA and its president will be responsible for the final fate - success or failure - of the controversial decision.
Guzmán only appeared to send a message to the IMF: "we want exchange rates to converge."
Washington bureaucrats reject the multiple dollar.
Now, Argentina lives with the madness of having new exchange rates.
Luis Cubeddu and Julie Kozack have already admitted - in meetings with Argentine bankers - that the IMF considers that Argentina should have exchange control.
They say it because of the delicate situation of the reserves and the impossibility of unifying the market: it would go to an astral value.
Mauricio Claver Carone, on Sunday, spoke with the President.
It was after the Casa Rosada's strategy against his election as head of the IDB failed - in a resounding manner.
Carone was key for Mauricio Macri to obtain extraordinary help from the IMF.
Carone himself publicly admitted that the money was approved in Washington to support the frustrated re-election of the former president.
Trump's "hawk" - in the conversation - offered Alberto his influence and power in Washington.
Carone proposed as a mediator with the IMF.
The President would have spoken of the difficult economic situation.
Businessmen follow the issue closely.
As much as political movements.
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta will take a step to consolidate his national projection: shortly, he will speak in front of the establishment at the Mediterranean Foundation.
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