Until Friday, a month and a half before the US presidential election, each camp was refining its score and the polls in favor of Joe Biden were stable.
And then Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 87, died of pancreatic cancer.
The Democrats, who made this bespectacled little lady a heroine, had feared such news for years.
“Notorious RBG” (his nickname in a nod to rapper Notorious BIG) marked the history of American law by its relentless fight against discrimination based on sex.
At the Supreme Court, she was seen as a champion of the feminist cause, of minorities and of the environment.
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His death immediately sparked a standoff over the designation of a successor.
Until now, the Supreme Court has consisted of four progressive judges and five conservative judges.
The head of the institution, John Roberts, was the pivotal vote, sometimes rallying the opposite camp.
This balance, Donald Trump has promised to upset at the slightest opportunity, by permanently anchoring to the right the highest judicial institution in the country.
And that day came sooner than expected.
Race against time
The political color of the Supreme Court is of major importance in the United States.
It can dictate the direction of the country for an entire generation, since judges are appointed for life by the president.
The right to abortion, to firearms, migration policy, civil rights… the most burning issues are decided there.
Donald Trump, who has already appointed two conservative judges, now has the opportunity to appoint a third.
And thereby to prove once again to its base that it keeps its promises.
"We have this obligation (Editor's note:
to replace it
), without delay", tweeted the American president, in fact triggering hostilities with Camp Biden.
. @ GOP We were put in this position of power and importance to make decisions for the people who so proudly elected us, the most important of which has long been considered to be the selection of United States Supreme Court Justices.
We have this obligation, without delay!
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 19, 2020
It will then be up to the Senate to confirm the lucky winner to his post before January (when the senators appointed in November will take office).
The race against time has therefore begun.
The upper house has a majority of 53 Republicans out of 100 elected.
Three of them, rather moderate (including former presidential candidate Mitt Romney), could refuse to vote.
But the devout evangelical Vice President Mike Pence has the final say in the Senate in the event of a tie.
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Whatever happens, the sequence that opens will divert attention from the themes that work for Joe Biden: the mismanagement by his rival of the health and economic crisis.
The Democrat can however hope for a burst of mobilization at the polls, as was the case after the confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh (fiercely conservative) in October 2016. The midterm elections which took place a month later had given rise to the famous "pink wave": the House of Representatives had switched to the Democratic side, in particular thanks to the vote of women.