Donald Trump has all the assets in hand.
The death of Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg offers her an unexpected chance to appoint a third judge to the Supreme Court and irreparably switch the highest court in the country to the side of the Conservatives.
It would take four defections among Republicans in the Senate to prevent it.
For now, two moderate senators, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, have spoken out against the appointment of a Supreme Court justice in an election year.
In 2016, the Republican Senate leader, Mitch McConnell, refused for the same reason to hear the judge chosen by Barack Obama after the death of Antonin Scalia.
He has since changed his mind and intends to organize a vote quickly.
Democrats have no weapon to stop it.
Read also: The battle for the Supreme Court, a major issue in the race for the White House
"I think it will go very quickly,"
was also enthusiastic Donald Trump over the weekend.
The president plans to unveil the candidate's name at the end of the week, hoping for a nomination
before the presidential election
.
"We have plenty of time,"
the president said on Fox News.
The forty days remaining before the deadline may not be enough, however, given that the process lasts on average between 67 to 70 days.
Another obstacle could thwart his plan: the Senate was planning to take leave during the campaign - theoretically from mid-October.
The president's bet also places some Republicans in an embarrassing position while a third of the seats in the Senate will be renewed.
"Candidates in difficulty will cut themselves off from a precious fringe of their electorate, whether they vote in one direction or the other"
, estimates Jean-Éric Branaa *, lecturer at the University of Paris II Panthéon-Assas .
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- "Extraordinary", "Fierce": Trump and Biden Pay Tribute to Ruth Bader Ginsburg
Even if he does not achieve his goals by November 3, Donald Trump will still have two more months
after the presidential election
to submit his candidate.
The 45th president remains in office at least until January 21, at noon.
The delay will be reduced if the Democrats win the majority in the Senate.
Donald Trump will then have until January 3, the date on which the senators elected in November will take office, to act.
By then, the Republican majority could also shrink by one vote in favor of a by-ballot in Arizona, where outgoing Republican Martha McSally finds herself in a bad position.
The winner will be able to start sitting at the end of November.
“There is a catch,
relativizes Jean-Éric Branaa.
It is the leader of the Republican senators who decides the date on which the elected official will take the oath. "
Even
if Joe Biden is elected
on November 3, he will be able to watch without acting the appointment of the new judge to the Supreme Court before his possible inauguration.
The person concerned is well aware of this.
He also wanted to address Sunday
"to the handful of Republican senators",
who
"know deep within themselves what is good for their country"
.
Some Democrats have put forward the idea of expanding the number of Supreme Court justices to rebalance the forces involved.
The Democratic candidate has so far refused to hear about it.
“He could make appointments to the Federal Courts of Appeal
[penultimate level of the federal judicial system, before the Supreme Court, editor's note], advances Jean-Éric Branaa
.
This would indirectly reduce the number of cases handled by the Supreme Court. ”
* Jean-Éric Branaa is also the author of the book “The American Constitution and the institutions” published in August by Ellipses editions.