Beirut
“
We're going to hell.
This is the answer given a week ago by the Lebanese President, Michel Aoun, to a journalist asking him what would happen if Mustapha Adib's cabinet was not formed quickly.
Throwing in the towel this weekend, the prime minister designated to form the
"mission government"
promised to Emmanuel Macron during his visit to Beirut on September 1, confirms that the political impasse is total and the price to be paid for the Lebanese exponentially.
The community leaders who hold the reins of power did not agree on the composition of the Adib cabinet, which is supposed to surround itself with "
technicians
" to implement a roadmap whose broad outlines were blown out by the Elysee.
The negotiations stumbled, as always, on the community distribution of key portfolios, in particular that of Finance, which the
“Shiite tandem”
made up of the Amal and Hezbollah parties do not want to give up.
But, more fundamentally, on the clear refusal of the community leaders to give up the reins, each insisting on declaring in spite of everything that Adib's resignation did not spell the end of the “
French initiative”,
and accusing the other of hinder it.
Read also:
Lebanon is still without a "mission government"
In reality, what prevailed were the usual clientelist logics and foreign interference, coupled with Hezbollah's preference for the wait-and-see attitude, between now and the US elections supposed to open a new page in the relationship between Iran and the states. -United.
But also, the implicit choice of the politico-financial oligarchy in favor of the socialization of the losses revealed in broad daylight a year ago, with the outbreak of the economic and financial crisis.
This would be done to the detriment of a rescue plan distributing its losses equitably, with a large part falling in particular to banks and large depositors.
However, the more the scenario of the hyperinflation-devaluation spiral is confirmed, the more depositors are encouraged to accept increasing discounts on their savings (around 70%), de facto reducing the losses of the banking system, argues an economist.
"Social consequences"
This worst case scenario is the one that is unfolding, explains Alia Moubayed, economist and Middle East specialist.
“The prospect of an injection of capital and of international aid orchestrated around an IMF program is receding, with as a corollary the increasing use of printing money to monetize public deficits, which only makes aggravate the spiral.
Lebanon is still at the start of the hyperinflation cycle observed in other countries where it averages 125% per year
.
The social consequences are very serious, whether through the impoverishment of the population or massive emigration which depletes the human capital of the country.
Not to mention security threats, the exploitation of community loopholes by regional and international actors being probable in an increasingly turbulent geopolitical context
.
"
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In Lebanon, Emmanuel Macron tears off a roadmap for the new government
In the aftermath of the explosion in the port of Beirut, which knocked out Lebanese society, Emmanuel Macron's bet was precisely based on the desire to help Lebanon keep its head above water for a few months, the time for new regional balances to emerge.
For some, it was the only one possible, for political realism, the community system being, although weakened, unavoidable.
For others, the French initiative fails by its persistence in not asking the essential question of the legitimacy of the powers in place, even if the alternative has not yet been identified.
“The roadmap is known, the question that arises is that of the actors who will carry it.
It is time for the international community to realize that the powers that be are the antithesis of reforms, ”
insists Alia Moubayed.
Macron "takes note of the collective betrayal" of the political class
Emmanuel Macron said on Sunday that he had
"taken note of the collective betrayal"
of the Lebanese political class after its failure to form a government, contrary to the commitment it made in early September.
“The Lebanese political forces, their leaders, the leaders of the Lebanese institutions did not wish to respect the commitment made to France and the international community.
They decided to betray this commitment
,
"
added the Head of State, before insisting:
" They chose to favor partisan and individual interests to the detriment of the collective interest (...) to deliver the Lebanon at the game of foreign powers, to condemn it to chaos. "
"Last chance"
The French president attacked the Shiite Hezbollah party, which
“must not believe it is stronger than it is.
It cannot at the same time be an army at war against Israel, a militia unleashed against civilians in Syria, and a respectable party in Lebanon.
It is up to him to demonstrate that he respects the Lebanese as a whole.
In recent days, he has clearly shown the opposite. "
Read also:
Lebanon: Europe must designate Hezbollah as a terrorist organization
"The Lebanese leaders"
, estimated the French president, have a
"last chance"
for the commitments made at the beginning of September to be respected in order to form a mission government and obtain international aid.
“The roadmap of September 1st remains (…), it is the only initiative taken at national, regional and international level (…), it is not withdrawn from the table (…) but it now belongs to Lebanese officials to seize this last chance themselves, ”
said Emmanuel Macron.