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October surprise: Trump's contagion in Corona could reopen race | Israel today

2020-10-03T13:42:04.863Z


| United StatesWhile the spotlight is on Walter Reed Hospital, where Trump is hospitalized after contracting the virus, Biden still enjoys a slight advantage in the polls and is trying to generate alluvium from his opponent's disappointed camp. It is doubtful whether President Donald Trump has planned a scenario in which he will be forced to spend the last straight of the most important election of his life in


While the spotlight is on Walter Reed Hospital, where Trump is hospitalized after contracting the virus, Biden still enjoys a slight advantage in the polls and is trying to generate alluvium from his opponent's disappointed camp.

It is doubtful whether President Donald Trump has planned a scenario in which he will be forced to spend the last straight of the most important election of his life in the hospital.

Now Trump is reluctantly in a situation he has no control over.

That is, for the first time in four years, Trump is not setting the agenda but an external factor. 

President Trump Before Going to Hospital: "Good Conditions" // From Donald Trump's Twitter Page

But Democratic nominee Joe Biden will not be able to take advantage of the no man's land and campaign effectively because all the spotlight is now on Walter Reed Hospital.

Even if Biden tries to dance on the blood and do an accusatory campaign in the style of "we told him to put on masks," or "this is what happens when the plague is out of control" - it will not change anything and even hurt him.

He will be seen as trying to rake in political capital from the health condition of the U.S. Supreme Commander.

One of Trump's most powerful cards in the polls, especially among voters who "defected" from Democrats to Republicans in 2016, is his unapologetic power and attitude - both in his slanderous rhetoric toward Clinton and in his tough anti-immigrant policies and more.

These voters, and of course his base, liked this approach, even when many of the commentators said he was "crazy" and unfit to serve because of his presidential conduct. 

Eventually, even the independents who remained on the fence until the last minute in 2016 went in his direction (at least in key countries) - and won the election along with a small group of high-educated whites in the suburbs, who liked the new and uninstitutional approach he presented (and especially hated Hillary Clinton). 

In recent months, Trump has tried, without success, to form such a coalition again.

His strategy focused on "law and order," hoping that message would be dominant in the election, thus again gnawing at support for Democrats in key strongholds for victory in key countries.

It is not easy to recreate the "miracle"

In 2016 he managed to do so when on the one hand he persuaded enough independents to give him a chance, and in addition received about half of the votes of white voters in the suburbs.

But he did so at a rate of 70,000 votes in three key countries.

Restoring this "miracle" is not easy this year. 

Therefore, in the absence of a new message (and in the absence of Clinton provoking antagonism), in recent weeks he has been looking for momentum in his base, hoping that the built-in fervor of Republicans versus Democrats is a steady response to Biden's slight advantage in the polls. 

Indeed, in the last confrontation it was already clear that while Biden was trying to seek out the votes they defected in 2016 and form a coalition of Democrats with the "disappointed Trump," the president turned to his base to incite citizens who did not even think to vote and regret Democrats' socialism. Good luck to Hillary Clinton.

All this while demonstrating determination and power - as the voters of 2016 liked.

This effort was particularly difficult following his base shrinkage and in light of Biden's success in re-accepting many of those who defected to Trump in 2016. In fact, Biden has managed to rake in almost half of white working class support in polls, largely because of the candidate's background, Lost them to Trump by a double-digit margin.

Therefore, given Trump’s difficulty in closing the gap with Biden, the new situation is an opportunity for Trump to reboot his campaign, largely because his deteriorating health is likely to cause him to rise in the polls.

This is always the case when there is concern for the president's safety or when there is a national tragedy (as there was after the assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan, and when President Bush Sr. collapsed during dinner due to a stomach upset).

If Trump sees that he is fighting heroically against the virus - sympathy for him will last until November 3.

In polls it is called the Sympathy Vote. 

In addition, if he comes out healthy and whole and shows vitality and optimism after his recovery - he will be able to ride this energy wave to the end and take advantage of the momentum created for him.

Just as James Comey's letter in 2016, just before the election, changed all the dynamics and gave Trump momentum (and self-discipline), so the new situation will give Trump the energy shot that will give him an effective and optimistic message to ride with until victory.

The big question is whether he will take this opportunity for an effective and targeted campaign, as he did in the last two weeks of the 2016 campaign.

Source: israelhayom

All news articles on 2020-10-03

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