Paris and its inner suburbs are going well in
“maximum alert zone” on
Monday.
"There was little doubt ..."
we slipped Sunday morning in Matignon.
It has been several days since the three thresholds corresponding to the maximum alert zone (disease incidence rate; incidence rate for the elderly; occupancy rate of intensive care beds by Covid patients) were crossed, and
"This trend was confirmed during the weekend
,
"
said Matignon.
More restrictive measures will therefore be implemented from Tuesday, in Paris and in the three departments of the inner suburbs for a period of 15 days, after which they will be reassessed.
A health protocol will be put in place to allow restaurants to remain open.
Bars, on the other hand, so far allowed to open until 10 p.m., are expected to close completely from Tuesday.
A strengthened health protocol at the university is under discussion and Frédérique Vidal must present measures.
The ministers concerned are expected to clarify things on Monday, and the mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo to hold a press conference at the prefecture of Paris.
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Saturation in intensive care expected mid-November
But the primary concern continues to be the hospital and its capacity to cope with a new influx of patients.
Models carried out by the Institut Pasteur, based on data dated September 25, estimate that the occupancy rate by Covid patients of the resuscitation beds currently available should in mid-November exceed, sometimes very widely, the 60 % (health emergency threshold) in all regions except Center-Val-de-Loire (46%, on maximum alert) and Grand Est (the only region remaining “green” with 20% of intensive care beds occupied by of Covid patients).
The maximum number of resuscitation beds that can be mobilized should be exceeded in the first half of November in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Guadeloupe, Ile-de-France, Hauts-de-France and Nouvelle-Aquitaine (as well as in Normandy, but according to too fragile data).
These simulations were carried out assuming a continuation of the current epidemic dynamic: reproduction rate at 1.35, 29 hospitalizations per 1,000 cases, 14% of visits to intensive care, average stay of 14 days.
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