PM approaches another "exit point" from agreement with Ganz • The two considerations before him: the Corona and Bennett
This week, polls were published according to which the situation of the two main parties in the coalition, the Likud and Blue and White, is very bad.
On the one hand, the right led by Naftali Bennett rises in the polls and challenges Prime Minister Netanyahu, and on the other hand the polls show that blue and white led by Bnei Gantz dives and fails to win even 10 seats.
Although these parties seem to have a clear interest in keeping the government in this position, the discourse in the political system on elections is intensifying.
Photo: Knesset Channel
The Likud is beginning to show rifts, and an expression of them is Minister Katz's harsh statement against the Ministry of Health - and indirectly against Prime Minister Netanyahu. In blue and white, they decided to toughen the tone regarding the budget and the appointment of the state attorney. So we turned to several political experts. For the elections next year, let's say around March. We also asked which government has a chance to be seen after the election. Will Bennett sit with Netanyahu? Can there be a government composed of Bennett, Lapid, Lieberman and Blue and White?
"Netanyahu will go to the polls anyway"
Tom Wagner, political strategist and communications consultant, CEO of Wagner Strategy and Public Relations, estimates that Prime Minister Netanyahu will go to the polls.
"Netanyahu is between a rock and a hard place," he explains.
"His original plan was to take advantage of Gantz's declining popularity and the agreement with the Emirates and Bahrain to go to the polls and get rid of the threat of rotation. New - Gadi Eisenkot, and a new front has developed within the Likud against Israel Katz. "
"But despite all this - the big disappearance of the next election is the question of how the corona will affect the actual turnout. If at the time of the election, Israel is still in a similar morbid state, it will have a radical effect on voters' willingness and ability to go to the polls. Turning to the polls - and no one knows how this will affect the various parties. In Arab society, in the development towns? "
"On the one hand, it is difficult to make a political decision without answering these questions, and Netanyahu must take that into account as well. But on the other hand, if he does not go to the polls, he will lose the throne to Gantz in the rotation agreement. Therefore, I suppose Netanyahu will go to the polls. Gadi Izenkot, who does not appear today Clearly on the map of the polls, he could surprise them and take Gantz's electorate. Bennett's momentum will probably not be stopped, so contrary to Netanyahu's plan, he will face two strong candidates in this election, one on the right and one on the left, with Lieberman being a natural Libra - "One of the most likely scenarios for the results of such an election is a unity government between Bennett and Eisenkot, with Lapid, Lieberman and other parties."
"Netanyahu and Gantz not interested in elections"
Communications Adviser and Strategy Officer Tami Sheinkman, who led the public campaign for the release of Gilad Shalit and served as Communications Adviser and spokeswoman for Minister Binyamin (Fuad) Ben Eliezer in four different government ministries, believes there will be no elections soon.
"Two people are not interested in the election at this time, Benjamin Netanyahu and Bnei Gantz. This is despite the fact that they both do not believe in each other, do not trust each other and do not really think there is a chance for the partnership to continue. But they both have a common interest - timing. Gantz, on the other hand, sees that elections will crush his 'blue and white' party to a single-digit number, and his inability to influence the agenda. The latter needs like air, the continued protest that continues to grow and the fact that he has not yet been able to 'pull out' a plea deal To breathe to find a way to reach rotation without elections, and Netanyahu, like Netanyahu,
Looking for the right timing to go to the polls.
He therefore needs time to eliminate his current rival, Naftali Bennett, who is rushing up in the polls.
Therefore, we will not be surprised if his starting point starts with a sharp attack on the people around Bennett, all those 'right-wingers' who claim political right-wing extremism and all those right-wing extremists who claim religious extremism.
Bnei Gantz will be looking these days for any opportunity to realize the exchange in rotation without elections, so the main messages that came out of the white brush are: elections - no, change of government - yes.
To do this he needs to turn to the right potential partners for the people to accept this alternative as preferable to elections.
who are they?
"Lieberman, Bennett, Shas, Torah Judaism. In other words, any party identified with the Israeli public as a Yemeni, behind the scenes, will have to forge a 'future deal' with Yair Lapid, but only after he can appoint himself an incumbent prime minister."
"Only a vaccine for Netanyahu will lead to elections"
Ariel Sander, chief business officer at the Gilad Group and Donald Trump's campaign manager in Israel on behalf of the Republican Party, believes that asking whether there will be an election in March would be like asking which of the US presidential candidates will win in 20 days. " "M," says Sander.
"This assumption is a basic determination in every decision that Netanyahu makes in the end, from which Netanyahu examines only the less good options that are on his table.
Netanyahu, as the one who will ultimately be the one to decide on the election date, is today considering the same less good alternatives for the decision.
On the one hand, Naftali Bennett built himself in the opposition as a real alternative to the government, and another alternative and even a resemblance to Netanyahu himself.
In this respect, in the depths of the polls, Netanyahu is discovering that more and more people stop being afraid to go after another, interesting, embracing leadership like Bennett and are able to put Naftali Bennett's note on Election Day.
"It was clear in all the previous election campaigns that the public in the polls gave Naftali Bennett seats for the most part, but on the day of the order he returned to the Likudniks' sources."
Netanyahu sees this in examining whether to go to the polls today, or whether the least bad alternative is to let Bnei Gantz be the de facto prime minister, with Netanyahu often on the wheel and continuing to put his political finger on the government and the Likud.
The choice between bad options is the game theory that Netanyahu has been working with and with which he has been governor for the past decade.
"" If we try to play the same Netanyahu game theory, he has shown that there are no choices in the foreseeable future, until two positive data join the decision: Corona vaccine and Naftali Bennett polls. .
In any case, if you want to have fun thinking about going to the polls and there is a new mix of cards, in my opinion Naftali will not go to the connection with the center-left without the Likud and the ultra-Orthodox.
"Naftali came to replace Netanyahu, not to replace horses, so any other political constellation is not relevant to Naftali Bennett."
"There is no escape - the coalition is not functioning"
Amnon Shomron, a veteran public relations and strategy expert, one of the owners of the Shomron-Zeliger advertising agency, believes there is almost no way to stop elections in March.
"If there are no elections in March, it will be a miracle. Nothing connects the components of the government and the coalition. Trust in the floor and the joint functioning on significant issues is not possible. "But all this will end whether because of the budget, the expansion of the protest, the debate over the appointment of senior officials or because of some of the dozens of reasons. If there is anything that will make Netanyahu and the Likud want and attract time, it is the low polls that followed the Corona."
"If elections take place, Bennett is portrayed by the polls as a magnet for all the confused and confused in the Likud and in blue and white. "Every time for a party that makes sympathetic votes. This time it's Bennett, for now."
"Despite the natural connection between the Likud and the religious Zionist parties and the right, the heavy rainfall and hostility between Bennett and Netanyahu can create unpredictable scenarios.
"Milestone: Transferring the State Budget"
Strategic adviser and political expert Yossi Tatika, who works with the Labor Party, believes that the chances of an election are low at the moment.
"In my opinion, Netanyahu has not yet decided whether to go to the polls or not, and I am not sure that betting on an election is the best option for him. The agenda is dominated by the Corona plague and no one knows when the crisis will pass. Given that the morbidity situation will not allow for a return to routine as much as possible. In a boxed article it is important for me to note that it is not advisable to be impressed by the current polls - because they are crisp. The political system has not yet settled for the next election, and new players will change the numbers. Promoting the 2021 budget will determine whether Israel is on the road to elections. "
"Netanyahu will decide at the last minute"
Strategic Adviser Roni Rimon, one of the owners of the Ministry of Public Relations and Strategy Rimon Cohen, believes that the prime minister has not yet decided. "Netanyahu is in a dilemma, if not the most difficult in his life: he has to choose between two bad alternatives: holding elections when his public opinion is poor, or Maintain the rotation with Ganz.
True, the small gap between him and Bennett in the polls does not seem realistic on election day, but the risk still exists.
Continue with blue and white?
Netanyahu has confidence to serve as prime minister for another year, but then he knows for sure deliver the Premiership Gantz November 2021 ".
" Netanyahu decided last night in question, on 22 December, hoping that by then corona mode also improve the medical aspect and the economic aspect.
By the way, when Netanyahu goes on the Gantz track, he is guaranteed another year and a half of his term as an alternative prime minister.
This is the safe route.
And Netanyahu is not a gambler. "
