Brussels and London require reciprocal concessions before 48 hours to avoid Brexit harshly

48 hour ultimatum.

Brussels and London are demanding mutual concessions within that period as a condition for continuing negotiations on the post-Brexit era, which have practically stalled since their inception more than six months ago.

Boris Johnson's government has demanded clarification on the European position before Friday.

But the EU has indicated this Tuesday that it is up to the British side to "take decisive steps" in the most conflictive points (control of state aid, fishing quotas and supervision of the future agreement).

The European summit this Thursday and Friday will study the possibility of making a gesture to keep the negotiation alive.

The German presidency of the EU has warned of the very serious economic consequences of an abrupt break on December 31, when the transitional period for the United Kingdom to leave the EU expires.

The European chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has informed the Council of Ministers of General Affairs of the EU on Tuesday about the lack of real progress in a negotiation process that, in theory, should conclude several weeks before December 31 to allow time to the parliamentary ratification (in London and Brussels) of the most ambitious trade agreement ever signed by Brussels.

"The negotiation has entered a very critical phase and time is running out," said the Secretary of State for European Affairs of Germany, Michael Roth, after the intervention of the Council, meeting in Luxembourg.

According to community sources, Barnier, who until now had always been optimistic about the possibilities of an agreement, sees a negotiation as historic as it is delicate in danger.

The European Council will debate whether to give Barnier more leeway to seek an understanding with London until the end of October.

British sources warn that without a gesture from the European side, the British prime minister will immediately propose to the Westminster Parliament to end the negotiation with Brussels.

"Barnier has not asked us for flexibility as such nor have we debated it, but he has told us that when the end of the negotiation approaches, there must be concessions," said the Spanish Secretary of State for the Council of Ministers in Luxembourg. the European Union, Juan González Barba.

González Barba believes that the concessions will not arrive for this week's summit but in a final stretch that, in all probability, will require the convening of another extraordinary meeting.

But the reciprocal accusations of blockade by Brussels and London will force European leaders to pronounce on the state of the negotiation.

And Johnson will have to accept the offer to prolong the dialogue or break definitively and trigger an exit that he has defined as "Australian" in reference to the model of commercial relationship that London maintains with the country of the antipodes.

Germany, the country that presides over the Union this semester, continues to be committed to reaching an agreement that partially preserves the very close relationship that the United Kingdom maintains with the continent, not only in the commercial field but also in that of judicial, police or security cooperation.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel keeps communication channels open with London in a more fluid way than French President Emmanuel Macron, defender of a more demanding European position with the United Kingdom.

But the pragmatism of Berlin is also combined with the demand for concessions on the west bank of the English Channel.

"It is now up to the UK to take decisive steps [towards the deal]," Roth said after the General Affairs Council meeting.

In any case, the EU reaches this home stretch with unity intact despite the four and a half years since the Brexit referendum and successive British attempts to sow division.

"In the European Council there are no fissures", emphasizes González Barba.

And the Secretary of State attributes much of that cohesion to the work of Barnier "who has a very important technical knowledge of each part of the dossier and knows how to assess and explain the importance of details that to lay eyes may seem trivial."

Swords raised

The meeting this Tuesday has raised swords and diplomatic sources indicate that "in the next 24 or 48 hours there could be movements that encourage negotiation or bury it definitively."

The majority bet to exhaust the deadlines and seek an agreement at least until the end of October, to have almost two months for the ratification process in the British and European Parliament.

Brussels expects the Johnson Executive to accept a clear commitment to guarantee fair competition from January 1.

Community sources underline the risk that, once outside the EU, the United Kingdom will become a kind of tax and regulatory haven with privileged access to the European market, a possibility that would be to the detriment of European companies.

The risk of unfair competition, according to these sources, has increased as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, a health crisis that has triggered a barrage of public aid and an irruption of States in economic activity that could last for months or months. years.

In this scenario, the presence of a competitor as powerful as the United Kingdom (the third largest economy in the EU until its exit) just a few kilometers from the continent is interpreted in Brussels as a risk that should not be underestimated.

London, for its part, hopes the EU will accept that fishermen's access to British waters will have to be restricted, a concession Johnson needs to try to ingratiate himself with Scotland, where the majority of the population voted against Brexit.

The British Government also wants the EU to renounce its desire for regulatory alignment as of January 1, when the UK will definitely become a third country for the community club.

And that possible future disputes do not have the European Court of Justice as the last reference but rather be settled in a more neutral arbitration system for both parties.

The agreement does not seem impossible but not easy either.

Roth, on behalf of the German presidency, has asked "that the economic impact of a lack of agreement be not underestimated, for both parties, but especially for the United Kingdom."

And he recalled that the border and commercial disruption would add to the serious economic consequences already caused by the pandemic.

A catastrophic scenario just over two months from now that the European summit and the Johnson government will try to defuse before Friday.