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How many percentage points is Joe Biden ahead in Georgia?
How likely is it that Trump will lose Florida?
In constantly updated model calculations, the opinion polls in the USA try to predict the outcome of the presidential election to within a tenth of a percentage point.
Nobody bothered with this little one: With Allan Lichtman there is only yes or no.
Since 1984, the political scientist has always correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential election - including in 2016, when Donald Trump surprisingly won against Hillary Clinton.
Allan Lichtman, American University, Washington, DC
"I'm not a malicious person, but it was a pleasure to watch in 2016 how the experts contorted why something had happened that they never thought possible."
Ronald Reagan 1984, George Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Obama twice each.
And Lichtman was always right.
He bases his forecast on 13 key factors, such as economic development or social tensions.
Allan Lichtman, American University, Washington, DC
"It's about the fundamental things that affect the American presidential election. Not the polls, not the expert opinions, not the speeches and debates, the advertising, the fundraising or the dirty tricks of the campaign. These Superficialities don't play a role. (…) With me there are no probabilities. If I'm wrong, it will hurt a lot. But I can do that. Still, I'm always excited. "
Once again, Lichtman has made a clear commitment.
This time, however, several factors have clouded his view of the future.
Allan Lichtman, American University, Washington, DC
"The Republican electorate, they're white guys like me. You can't breed them anymore. Unfortunately, we don't live 150 years. So they're trying to keep the Democratic electorate from voting - young people and minorities. That worries me. The second is Russian interference. You're back. You've learned a lot over the past four years. You might even try to break into our technical systems for voting and voter registration. Donald Trump welcomes that Influencing again and using it for yourself. Obviously, these are much greater threats to our democracy than to my prediction. But they could also falsify a prediction. But I stick to my prognosis, I'm just warning. "
If you want to wait until the presidential election, you have to switch off now - for everyone else: This is how the race between Donald and Joe Biden will end - at least if Allan Lichtman has his way:
Allan Lichtman, American University, Washington, DC
"Donald Trump will be the first incumbent president not to be re-elected since George HW Bush in 1992. The party that controls the White House is suffering like never before in the history of the United States sudden and dramatic change of mood. Within a few months. This has never happened before. "