Eduardo Paladini
10/18/2020 1:17 PM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 10/18/2020 1:22 PM
It is a statistical test, perhaps of improbable concretion, but that serves to measure today how the
main figures
of Together for Change are at the electoral level.
In the midst of the public reappearance of Mauricio Macri, who revived the interns in the main opposition conglomerate, a consulting firm measured
how an intern would turn out today
between the former president, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, María Eugenia Vidal and Martín Lousteau, four references with national projection.
First reading of the results: the head of government won, the former governor was surprised, the former president was relegated but not so much, the radical senator did not come close.
The study that
Clarín
accessed
is from
Reale Dallatorre Consultores (RDT)
, a pioneering firm in measurements through social networks.
This is a nationwide survey of
2,450 cases
, surveyed between October 10 and 12.
The results are presented with a margin of error of +/- 3.8%.
Before entering the electoral field, the consulting firm makes an interesting score to describe the
political climate
:
- The approval to the
management
of President Alberto Fernández
fell by 17 points
in the last quarter.
- There are
criticisms
of how the
coronavirus
pandemic
is being managed
, dissatisfaction with the aid deployed by the State to the victims and
perception of weakness
in the authority of the president, as a result of the growing influence of Cristina Kirchner.
- Almost half of those surveyed consider quarantine a
"catastrophe"
for the economy and education.
General electoral numbers
RDT
was one of the first consulting firms to measure
general voting intention
for the 2021 legislative elections, thus allowing us to see an evolution of the data.
And, as a general conclusion, the fall in the President's numbers had its rebound in that field.
In July, when the firm asked
"if the legislative elections were tomorrow, who would you be closest to voting for?"
, the result was:
National survey of Reale Dallatorre Consultores.
The electoral scene in July and October.
- A candidate from Alberto Fernández 32.6%
- A candidate from Larreta, Macri and Vidal 18.3%.
In the last survey he repeated the study and gave like this:
- A candidate of Alberto Fernández 30%.
- A candidate from Larreta, Macri and Vidal 27.3.
The
gap
between the two main spaces
dropped from 14.3 points to 2.7
.
But there were other striking changes: the undecided ("ns / nc") also fell sharply, from 25.6% to 4%;
and the variant "anti-system candidate" grew (from 17% to 25.7%), and the center-right option (Espert, Milei), from 3.8% to 8.4%.
This would confirm, as this newspaper has been telling, a certain tiredness with the crack and with the political class in general.
It is anyone's guess, anyway, how this will end up being reflected in the ballot box.
The PASO is just under 10 months away.
The intern at Together for Change for 2023
At the end of the study,
RDT
asks directly:
"Who would you like to be the candidate of Together for Change for the next presidential election?"
.
He gave four variants.
The result:
1) Horacio Rodríguez Larreta 34%.
2) María Eugenia Vidal 31%.
3) Mauricio Macri 18.6%.
4) Martín Lousteau 2.8%.
5) Don't know 13.6%.
National survey of Reale Dallatorre Consultores.
They measured an eventual intern at Together for Change.
For Martha Reale, director of the consultancy, "one of the outstanding data of the survey is the
parity between Larreta and Vidal
, although the
head of the Buenos Aires government
is emerging as the best positioned, basically because he is the leader with the least negative differential in terms of credibility. This allows us to affirm that her
potential is greater
than that of Vidal. Although regarding the former governor of Buenos Aires, it is interesting to highlight her recovery, in terms of the evaluation of her figure. "
The analyst completes: "Another leader who does not appear among the options, because he still has a high level of ignorance, but has room to grow, is Alfredo Cornejo. Because of his vocation for power, but also, based on the public consideration that he made Mauricio Macri regarding his figure. It is clear that it was a tactical move by the former president,
to lower the price of the undisputed leadership of Larreta
, inside the space ".