What if Donald Trump does not recognize an election defeat?
The US constitution has dangerous loopholes - experts warn of chaos.
The military could be at the end of the chain.
On November 3rd, the US president will be elected.
Donald Trump
threatens not to recognize a possible defeat.
If so, chaos threatens the US - experts see dangerous loopholes in the US Constitution.
BuzzFeed News
USA
asked renowned experts
what “nightmare scenarios” threatened
.
BuzzFeed News Germany is part of the
Ippen-Digital network
- the text is now exclusively available in translation.
Washington
- The
2020 US presidential election
could be so close and the outcome so hotly contested that the losing party will refuse to give up - creating
chaos
in which Congress, the courts and, in the worst case, the military will Could determine election winners.
It may sound far-fetched, but the
U.S. Constitution
has huge loopholes when it comes to deciding a controversial presidential race.
The peaceful change of power after an election has never really been based on a rigid set of rules.
It's about the fact that the politicians were ready to admit defeat.
President Donald Trump *
however, has already refused to commit to surrendering the White House in the event former Vice President Joe Biden wins.
US election in November 2020: Suddenly “wild scenarios” are on the agenda
Meanwhile, Trump is giving big speeches about wild, unconfirmed conspiracy theories about election manipulation through postal votes.
Mind you, at a time when Trump's unsuccessful response to the
Covid-19 pandemic
is forcing tens of millions of people to cast their votes by mail.
And he urges his supporters to show up at the polling stations, fueling fears of voter intimidation.
So what if Trump claims he was cheated out of victory?
Talks with
constitutional
experts show how the decision of a single governor on both sides could culminate in an escalation spiral and
prevent
the other side from moving into the
White House
.
This scenario is made possible by the
twelfth amendment to the US Constitution
.
"We have an advantage if we have to go through Congress," Trump told his supporters at a rally in Pennsylvania in late September.
And he's right.
The 12th Amendment paves the way for the possibility that a minority of Republicans in the House of Representatives could hand over the presidency to Trump, even if Biden
wins
the statewide vote and
Electoral College
.
Such
occurrences
would be
historically unprecedented in the United States
and likely never will.
But when both sides are really ready to fight for the White House, then suddenly wild scenarios are on the agenda - such as the dismissal of congressional delegations in the states or the contestation of two-year-old election results.
US election in chaos?
So it could come to that
Assuming the election results are tight and are made
even more opaque
by
counting days or weeks and recounting
postal ballot papers.
Then
Biden *
wins because of victories in so-called swing states with republican-controlled parliaments such as
Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
.
For simplicity, let's assume that a single state is critical to victory.
And let's assume it's
Florida *
, for obvious reasons.
Trump could start
spreading
unproven theses or far-fetched
conspiracy theories
- like claims that China interfered to manipulate Florida with fake ballot papers in Biden's favor.
Or that Democrats voted multiple times.
Or that election officials threw away Trump votes.
Outraged Trump supporters would demand from local Republicans,
something
to do.
And you would have two main options.
The US president is not elected by popular vote.
Just because a candidate gets the most votes doesn't mean they've won - as Trump and
George W. Bush have
already demonstrated.
Instead, voters vote on each state's electoral roll, the people who cast the votes for the Electoral College, which decides on the presidency.
Trump threatens an election defeat in the event - this is how the path to the dilemma would start:
Electors must be approved by their state executive, either the state secretary or the governor, depending on the state.
In Florida, it's the Secretary of State.
The
Florida
Republican
Secretary of State
could declare the results falsified and refuse to certify the electorate, preventing them from voting for Biden.
In essence, Florida would
withhold
the 270
Electoral College
votes
he needed to win from
Biden
by refusing to submit his results.
Alternatively, the Republican-controlled state parliaments could invoke electoral fraud, vote in favor of removing the electorate, and then appoint their own group.
Congress would then have to decide whether these
electors
should be counted.
In either case, the question of who won the election would fall into Congress's lap.
“I don't know how plausible that is.
It seems like one of the unlikely scenarios, and yet Florida gave it some serious thought during the 2000 election campaign, ”said
Keith Whittington
, Professor of Politics at
Princeton University.
"In these highly competitive competitions, the apparently implausible things can suddenly be on the agenda."
US election 2020: Trump sees himself as having an “advantage” in an emergency - that's what it's about
If no candidate receives a majority of the Electoral College's votes, the House of Representatives will elect
the President from the top three
under the 12th Amendment
to the Constitution.
This also happens if there is a tie of 269-269 in the Electoral College.
The
new Congress
, which will begin its work in January, will decide on the presidency.
The Democrats now control the House of Representatives and have a chance to retain their majority after the November election.
According to the wording of the twelfth amendment to the constitution
, however, it is not a majority of the members who elect the president
- but a majority of the federal delegations.
This means that US MPs from each state come together to cast a single vote.
The 53 MPs from California, 45 of whom are currently Democrats, would have the same weight as the vote of the only Republican MP from Wyoming *.
This is the
"benefit" that Trump was referring to
.
There are fewer Republicans in the House of Representatives overall;
the Democrats are in the majority at 232 to 197.
However, in terms of individual states, Republicans have a majority of 26 state delegations, while Democrats control 22.
(Pennsylvania is divided, and in Michigan the balance of power depends on Liberal MP Justin Amash.)
Spokeswoman Nancy Pelosi
uses this scenario to win support for the Democrats in the swing states.
"If Trump can not win at the ballot box, he wants the House of Representatives to give him the presidency," she wrote in a letter to her electoral committee, which
BuzzFeed News * USA
has received.
If Trump refuses to concede the election there is no paybook.
The country could quickly spiral into both parties shattering norms to keep the other from gaining power.
“The question is not what's reasonable or fair.
The question is what's possible. "
https://t.co/BVT9nXpGBx
- Paul McLeod (@pdmcleod) October 13, 2020
US could face historically unprecedented election chaos
The election of the next president by the House of Representatives would of course be unprecedented in today's world.
The only time the Twelfth Amendment decided on the
US presidency
was two centuries ago, in 1824, when four potential candidates ran and none won a majority.
The
Democrats
had a rarely used means of striking back.
Pelosi could use her majority and Section 5 of Article 1 of the Constitution to reverse the situation and ensure that the Democrats control more federal delegations than the Republicans.
Here's how it would work: Each House of Congress - the House of Representatives and the Senate - has the power to decide whether to contest the
elections of its own members
.
Today such battles are mostly decided by the courts, but Pelosi could reclaim that power.
Trump against Biden: Power struggles in Congress threaten - also across "red lines"
Democratic candidates who have lost close races could challenge the results.
Their challenges would eventually be put to a vote in the House of Representatives, where the Democrats are likely to be in control.
By
challenging
a few key races in states like
Pennsylvania
,
Florida,
or
Montana
and then voting in their own favor, the Democrats could cement their majority of the state delegations and ensure they control the keys to the White House.
This maneuver was widely used in the early 19th century to bolster majorities.
However, that would be a drastic violation of modern norms.
Dan Carpenter
, Professor of Politics at Harvard University, argues that while this scenario would be deeply regrettable for the country, a reconstitution of Congress could be justified if Republicans exclude a presidential candidate from the majority of the Electoral College.
“When this happens, we will have crossed a
red line in the history of the republic
.
A republican government is about the will of the majority.
So we're
already in some kind of nuclear war
by the time the election ends up in the House of Representatives, ”Carpenter told
BuzzFeed News
.
"Usually twice wrong doesn't mean even right - but in this case maybe it does."
US Election: "At this point we ask: Who has the keys to the military?"
If the election result stripped Republicans of the majority of their state delegations in the newly elected Congress, the party could try
to force
the
current Congress to rule on the presidency
.
The possibility to contest election results does not expire.
Pelosi could begin overturning the 2018 polls and overturning Republican Congressmen who have sat in the House for two years to immediately give the Democrats a majority of the state delegations.
The Republican-dominated
Supreme Court
, which would then also include Trump's candidate
Amy Coney Barrett
, could step in and declare Pelosi's actions unconstitutional.
But Pelosi could ignore them, saying that the Constitution assigns these decisions to their house, not the court.
"At this point we ask, okay, who has the keys to the military?" Says Carpenter.
"Again, I don't want it to happen."
Presidential election 2020: “nightmare scenario” leaves scientists at a loss - “we have no prognosis”
Now let's look at the alternate scenario from above, where the Florida Parliament
replaces
the
pro-Biden electoral list
with a
pro-Trump electoral list
.
Congress oversees the Electoral College vote count.
Both sides of the Florida electorate - those ready to vote for Biden and those who vote for Trump - would surely show up in Washington claiming to represent the true will of the people.
Who can decide which votes are counted?
Some say it's
Vice President Mike Pence
in his role as Senate President.
But most experts agree that the decision is up to Congress.
What happens when a divided Congress cannot agree on which votes should be counted?
The constitution gives no answer to this.
In a true
nightmare
scenario, Pelosi invalidates the electoral lists, refuses to count the votes, and claims in the scenario outlined above that the House of Representatives has the power to declare Biden the winner.
Then Senate Republicans rally behind Trump while
Pelosi and the Supreme Court argue over who is in charge
.
"When it comes to a contest between Nancy Pelosi and the Supreme Court, we have no forecast," says
Lawrence Lessig
, Professor of Law and Leadership at
Harvard Law School
.
"At a certain point the decision rests with the military - because if Trump refuses to leave, who will show up at the White House on the day of his inauguration and show him out?"
2020 US election: Trump or Biden? How a disaster can be avoided
In principle, a solution
does not come from the wording of the law, but from the people who make up America's institutions.
The aforementioned nightmare scenarios only occur when the
election result
is
close
and politicians use the uncertainty to secure power for their own party.
Election crises in the US have recently been averted by one side declaring its readiness to withdraw.
In 2000,
Al Gore
accepted
the Supreme Court ruling in the
Bush v. Gore
case
instead of taking the fight to Congress.
When the Republicans in 1960 claimed that electoral fraud
John F. Kennedy
to his
narrow victory over Richard Nixon
had helped, they tried to overturn the results in eleven states.
But Nixon eventually gave in instead of continuing this fight.
Election in the US: Would Trump have the support of the Republicans in the dispute?
Trump has refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power.
In doing so, he obviously lays the foundations for
contesting the election
.
But he can't do it alone.
Trump needs the
state and federal republican establishment
behind him to stand a chance of success.
The Republicans in the Senate have insisted that there will be a peaceful transfer of power.
Senate Majority Whip John Thune, a Republican, even says his party will stand up to Trump if the president tries to break the constitution in order to stay in power.
That may be little consolation.
Because the
Republicans can
look back on a long and colorful
history of changing direction of their standpoints and surrendering to Trump
, with only a few predominantly symbolic exceptions.
Extreme
polarization
means that Republicans too will face pressure from the Make America Great Again grassroots.
She equates defeat with the possible end of democracy.
US election dispute up to military action?
Expert warns of permanent damage to democracy
Whittington does not expect the country to take this route, however, as the consequences of a generalized impression of election theft would be utterly disastrous.
He claims the extreme scenarios of
Trump
maintaining
power by the military
would undoubtedly lead to rioting in the streets that would be far more
violent - and violent
- than the protests that are already sweeping the country.
"That's one reason I think we won't let it happen - because everyone understands how bad that would be," says Whittington.
“It's not something that disappears after it's resolved.
This is something that is permanently damaging the functioning of our constitutional system. "
Trump versus Biden: Turbulent US election looming - courts could save the situation early, but concerns remain
An active Supreme Court could also prevent measures aimed at electoral theft before the battle reaches the House of Representatives.
Courts tend to be reluctant to make decisions about elections.
In 2000, the Supreme Court tried not to participate in the Florida recount before stepping in.
But if state executives refuse to approve their electoral lists, the
Supreme Court
could
step
in
and rule that they
have no choice
but to do so.
Lessig believes the courts would eventually
step in to avoid
the
appearance of a stolen election
.
“These are people who think about history.
Her entire life is all about that, ”he explains.
Nevertheless, are loud Lessig at a time to be blown up in the norms and the President speaks openly about the ability of the
US mail
,
millions of postal ballot papers
to count * restrict, unimaginable scenarios have become very conceivable.
“The question is not what is reasonable or what is fair,” he says.
"The question is what is possible."
Paul McLeod, Buzzfeed News USA
Also interesting: You
can read in
detail at
Merkur.de
*
why the upcoming elections are the "most important election in US history"
.
The
political scientist Stephan Bierling
also stated in an interview with the ribs Digital Zentralredaktion which has left its mark Trumps Presidential already.
* Buzzfeed News and Merkur.de are part of the Ippen-Digital network.
List of rubric lists: © Mandel Ngan / AFP