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Donald Trump and Joe Biden during their TV duel on September 30th: In the polls, the Democrat has been consistently ahead for a long time
Photo: BRIAN SNYDER / REUTERS
SPIEGEL
: Mr. Borick, what are the most important conclusions that you have drawn from the polls on the US election over the past few weeks and months?
Christopher Borick
: Most noticeable is the consistency and breadth of Joe Biden's lead.
He has been leading for some time, and that leadership has grown slightly, nationwide as well as in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Florida.
Another important feature of this election cycle is that most polls show that there are significantly fewer undecided voters than in 2016.
SPIEGEL
: What does that mean for Donald Trump's prospects?
Borick
: First of all, it explains the stability of the values.
These suggest that it will be an uphill battle for the president to repeat his success of 2016, when he won the election with very narrow victories in some swing states.
SPIEGEL
: What role did the undecided voters play in the last presidential election four years ago?
Borick
: There are a number of reasons why the 2016 polls were wrong - although they were basically not as far off as some have
suggested
.
One important factor: a significant proportion of the electorate were undecided and did not like either candidate.
Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have historically had high levels of rejection.
In the end, these voters had to make a decision and a disproportionately large number of them voted for Donald Trump.
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