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Agreement with Sudan

The agreement with Sudan will not help Trump in the election, but perhaps the legacy

It is not certain that the average American voter at all knows where Sudan is, and the last two presidents who did not win a second term - Bush Sr. and Carter - have lost despite achievements in foreign policy.

The president may already be thinking about the day after and the Nobel Peace Prize, in addition to trying to sandal Biden in negotiations with Iran

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• Donald Trump

• Sudan

• Joe Biden

Prof. Eitan Gilboa

Sunday, 25 October 2020, 13:48 Updated: 22:03

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In the video: Netanyahu's statement on the sale of the F35 aircraft to the Emirates (Photo: GPO)

The Trump administration has been negotiating a package deal with Sudan for several months - a tripartite arrangement that will include compensation for American citizens affected by terrorist acts in Africa with Sudanese involvement, and normalization of relations with Israel, in exchange for removing Sudan's name from the list of supporting countries.

A country on this list is having difficulty raising investments and loans from international companies, funds and banks.

Sudan is ruled by military officers and civilian politicians who disagree on the proposal.

The officers wanted to accept her, but the politicians objected to the Israeli part.

Last Thursday, Trump gave the Sudanese rulers an ultimatum - to accept the United States' offer for all its parts within 48 hours or it is canceled.

The leaders decided to accept the arrangement.

What burned Trump so much about using such a rigid means of pressure as the ultimatum he gave to Sudanese rulers?

Since the presidential election campaign has entered the very last line, and in the polls Trump is lagging behind his rival Joe Biden, the suspicion immediately arises that this is Trump's desire to establish his status as a peacemaker and thus garner votes of undecided.

At the signing ceremony of Israel's normalization agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, Trump solemnly announced that more Muslim Arab countries were on their way to joining his regional peace initiative, and he wanted to prove he was keeping his word.

More on Walla!

NEWS

Trump has recorded a diplomatic achievement in the Middle East, but that is not enough for a victory in the United States

To the full article

On Friday, in a conversation with Netanyahu and the Sudanese rulers who accompanied the announcement of the agreement, Trump tried to drag Netanyahu to criticize Biden when he asked him if President Biden was capable of reaching such an agreement.

In the previous two election campaigns, Netanyahu publicly supported Republican candidates, but this time he evaded and contented himself only with expressing gratitude to Trump.

Perhaps he, too, estimates that this time Trump will lose and Biden will remember him supporting Trump at a critical stage, in addition to all the toxic sediment that has accumulated in recent years in the relationship between Netanyahu and the Democrats.

Peace does not interest the American voter.

Trump talks with Sudanese leaders Friday (Photo: AP)

The problem with the argument that Trump put pressure on Sudan and Netanyahu for election purposes ignores the historical experience.

Generally, foreign policy achievements have little effect on the American electorate.

The state of the economy is the most influential factor, and when the economy is in a severe recession, peace moves evaporate.

In the last 50 years, only two presidents have failed to be elected for a second term, although they have been credited with significant foreign policy achievements: Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George W. Bush Sr. in 1992.

Carter was behind the Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement, which was a significant breakthrough in Israel's relations with the Arab world.

Bush Sr. defeated Saddam Hussein, liberated Kuwait from the Iraqi occupation and initiated an international peace conference to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict.

In both of these cases, the economic situation in the United States was difficult and the achievements of Carter and Bush did not help them, and they lost after only one term.

This is also Trump's situation today.

If Trump thought the agreement with Sudan would help him win the election, then he was wrong.

It is not certain that the average American voter at all knows where Sudan is, and it is certain that the agreement with the United States and Israel does not interest him.

The most important issue for him today is how to get out of the health and economic corona crises as quickly as possible.

Maintained neutrality in contrast to past elections.

Netanyahu on the agreement with Sudan, yesterday (Photo: GPO)

The agreement with Sudan may be related to the election, but in a completely different sense.

Maybe Trump thinks he will lose to Biden and then he needs to base his legacy - in the face of all the difficult disagreements about his personality, behavior, actions and omissions, ending with peace achievements always looking good in the world.

It is also possible that an agreement with Sudan and other Muslim countries will also strengthen his candidacy for the Nobel Peace Prize next year.

There is another aspect related to the election results.

Biden has announced that if he wins and is elected president he will negotiate with Iran on a new nuclear deal.

It is widely believed that it will be similar to the nuclear deal signed by Barack Obama in 2015.

Following the Iranian presidential election in 2009, protests and riots erupted amid opposition allegations of large-scale counterfeiting.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad suppressed the demonstrations with great force and caused thousands of wounded and killed.

Obama's response to the attempt to bring more democracy to Iran has been weak.

The reason for this was Obama's fear that a more aggressive position in favor of the protesters would undermine the negotiations he was conducting at the time on the nuclear deal.

If Biden chooses, a similar situation could develop in the alliance sector that Trump has promoted between Israel and Arab and Muslim countries that now includes Sudan.

The alliance is based primarily on the need to halt Iran.

Biden may stop joining other countries so as not to upset the rulers of Iran, with whom he intends to negotiate.

If so, Trump's goal is to join as many countries as possible and as quickly as possible: Morocco, Oman, Qatar and the diamond in the crown - Saudi Arabia, and in any case he will have time to realize that goal by at least January 20, 2021.

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