Front of All vs. Together for Change: what the last five electoral polls say for 2021

Eduardo Paladini

10/26/2020 11:20 AM

• Clarín.com

• Politics

Updated 10/26/2020 11:20 AM

While a sector of the Frente de Todos embraces the economic crisis and the coronavirus pandemic to promote the suspension of the PASO, and from Together for Change they do not rule out the exception, the consultants continue to take the temperature of the central fight of the Argentine politics.

How is the struggle between the two dominant forces today?

accessed the

that, in different ways, measured the electoral pulse for the 2021 legislative elections.

The studies, all national in scope, are from

,

,

,

and

.

Consultants of different sizes who worked on both sides of the crack.

The results of its polls, released in the last week, show an attenuated polarization compared to 2019 and a certain fatigue with the crack.

Here is the review of each poll:

​

CIGP: loss of votes, with the ruling party up

She is a small consultant, who has been measuring and disseminating her studies for several elections.

Between October 10 and 15, he surveyed

.

The firm asked:

.

He led the

with

(reached 48% in 2019), followed by

with

(40% last year), 15% "none", 11% "liberals", 7% "ns / nc", 5% "other" and 3% "left".

And in his summary of results, he highlighted the electoral panorama:

- "The

the country present, facing the 2021 elections, a

(compared to 2019)".

v 1.5

Electoral poll 1

Based on a national survey of 890 cases.

October 2020. In%.

Tap to explore the data

Source:

Infographic:

- "Regarding the transfer of votes in the

, it focused mainly on 'none', which would mark a

on the part of the voter, or else that the vote in 2019 of these voters was more strategic than ideological ".

- "On the side of Juntos por el Cambio, the

of voters is

 whom have turned to the 'liberal' sector represented in our survey by José Luis Espert and Javier Milei".

Giacobbe: the rejection of the Government is extended

Jorge Giacobbe

(son) was the first to broadcast electoral polls this year, based on a particular question:

.

v 1.5

Electoral poll 2

Based on a national survey of 2,500 cases.

October 2020. In%.

Tap to explore the data

Source:

Infographic:

He originally investigated it in June and, since then,

.

In their latest measurement, a survey of

from October 13 to 15,

said they want

against 32.4% who wanted it to win.

He completed 14.2% of "I don't care" and 2.2% of "ns / nc".

The

thus reached

, when in June it was only 5.6: 37.3% wanted an official victory against 42.9% who preferred an opposition victory.

Management & Fit: opposition majority

The consulting firm that

runs

, and works with different political parties, conducted a survey of

between October 17 and 21.

The electoral chapter also addressed it in a general way.

"If there were elections again tomorrow, would you feel more inclined to vote for a candidate favorable to the Alberto Fernández government or for an opposition candidate?"

asked M&F.

The

, against 36.4% of the ruling party and 12.9%. 

The firm also presented the results by

.

In this last cut is where more differences were counted.

v 1.5

Electoral survey 3

Based on a national survey of 2,200 cases.

October 2020. In%.

Tap to explore the data

Source:

Infographic:

- Among

, the ruling party added 37.5% and the opposition 47.4%.

Among

, 35.2% and 54.5% respectively.

- Among those

, the ruling party got 34.3% and the opposition 53.3%.

Among those

, 38.5% and 48.2%.

- Among those with

, the ruling party reached 46.4% and the opposition 36.4%.

Among those with

, 33.1% and 52.9%.

Among those with

, 28.3% and 66.5%.

Synopsis: fourth fall of the Front of All

It is another of the consulting firms that began months ago with its electoral measurements.

He is already in his fourth study and the

was repeated in all the polls.

v 1.5

Electoral poll 4

Based on a national survey of 1,206 cases.

October 2020. In%.

Tap to explore the data

Source:

Infographic:

Between October 8 and 12,

surveyed

.

He repeated the question he has been asking since July:

The option" other political force "reached 54.7%, against 33.2% of the" ruling party " : a

.

In

, that gap was only

(46.3% vs. 38.6%);

in

was increased to

(47.5% vs. 36.8%) and in

it was already at

(48.7% vs. 35%).

This last month it made the most important leap and it was enlarged almost 8 points more.

Opinion: tie, with light polarization.

It is one of the pioneering firms in online measurements.

Between October 9 and 20, he did a study of

.

And he asked:

.

There was an

between the

, which added

each.

A light polarization, taking into account that between the two they were around almost 90 points just a year ago.

The rest?

Awakening (Espert) 7%, Non-Kirchnerist PJ 4%, Left Front 3%, NOS (Gómez Centurión) 1%, None 11%, Does not know / does not answer 24%.

v 1.5

Electoral poll 5

Based on a national survey of 1,800 cases.

October 2020. In%.

Tap to explore the data

Source:

Infographic:

In another part of the study,

evaluated the

of the two main forces.

And there they were also very even.

- The

combined

, with 19% of "I could get to vote for him" and 28% of "I would surely vote for him."

- While

had

, 27% of "I could get to vote for it" and 22% of "I would surely vote for it".

These rejection numbers, plus the two digits that the "none" variant usually achieves or the growth of anti-system options like Espert's reflect

: a certain tiredness with the crack and politics in general.

In any case, according to the analysts and transmit the same numbers,

, more than 9 months before the STEP (will they be done?) And before a legislative election, which usually shows a greater dispersion of the vote.