The US president is not directly elected.
This is why surveys are often difficult to evaluate.
We provide an overview of developments before and during the 2020 US election.
On November
3rd,
the Americans can elect their new president.
Predictions
based on
polls
ahead of
2020 presidential election
.
In the
2020 US election
, Donald Trump and Joe Biden are direct competitors.
Munich / Washington, DC - One week before the
2020 US election
on November 3, the
survey tools
on social networks are slowly getting hot.
What expressiveness can be attributed to this is controversial.
Depending on the circles in which the questioner moves, the results are all different.
The 45th President of the United States,
Donald Trump (Republican)
, has collected a large number of polls on his Twitter page over the past few weeks.
The striking thing about them is the clear lead that Donald Trump has over competitor
Joe Biden
in most cases
.
If you look
around
the
Democratic
camp instead
, the picture looks different again.
Here Joe Biden usually leads Donald Trump.
This assessment also most closely matches the official surveys carried out by universities, for example.
US election 2020: Trump wants the polls to speak for themselves - and gets a direct counterattack
A user on Twitter points out to
Donald Trump
that it is not really meaningful
to pick out
a
suitable survey
.
Finally, you could then choose one of the polls in which
Joe Biden is
way ahead of him.
The Twitter user thinks it makes more sense to take all votes into consideration - and let everyone vote.
Not to say you are wrong, but picking 1 recent poll out of 20+ polls might be selection bias.
We could also pick Biden +12 in the USC poll but that would be just as wrong as picking one poll with a favorable result.
Everyone should vote.
And let all the votes be counted.
pic.twitter.com/whTDva8DPx
- Bob McNab (@mceconomist) October 27, 2020
2020 US presidential election - will Americans vote for Biden or for Trump?
The
USC Dornsife department of
the
University of Southern California (USC)
studies and tracks the opinions of 6,000 Americans about the
2020 presidential election
in the
USA
and how these will change over time.
The numbers for a day are based on the assessments of the last fourteen days.
The
USC Dornsife
poll
shows a strong tendency towards a
majority
for
Joe Biden
.
He has been between nine and twelve percent ahead of Donald Trump since the end of August.
The last five assemblies follow (as of October 27, 2020, 2:41 p.m.):
Day | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | head Start |
|---|---|---|---|
10/26/2020 | 42.5 | 53.28 | +10.78 |
October 19, 2020 | 41.87 | 53.51 | +11.64 |
10/12/2020 | 41.29 | 53.97 | +12.68 |
05/10/2020 | 42.25 | 52.8 | +10.55 |
09/28/2020 | 42.18 | 51.57 | +9.39 |
Biden before Trump?
Surveys show a clear picture - but how meaningful is it?
Due to the
electoral system in the USA
, however, the individual votes are not relevant for winning the election.
The
Americans
choose so-called election People / electors, not the president directly.
To win the
presidential
election, a candidate must win a majority of the electorate.
The technology company Morning Consult conducts over 4,000
surveys
with potential voters
every day
and has achieved the following
results
:
At the
national level
, Biden (52%) leads with nine percent ahead of Trump (43%).
In the
“unsafe” states
, Biden leads in Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - while Trump only got a lead in South Carolina.
The following are still unsafe: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.
According to the results of
Morning Consult
leading
Democrats
even in the
congressional elections in 2020
against the
Republicans
.
This is particularly relevant after the 2018 elections, as Donald Trump had to give up some power even then.
Congress is crucial when it comes to implementing political ideas in the
US
.
Click
here for the old ticker about the US elections 2020.
(jey)
List of rubric lists: © Montage Merkur.de: Harald Tittel (via dpa / picture alliance)
