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Does he command or does she command? The five polls that contradict Cristina Kirchner's letter

2020-10-27T20:29:58.815Z


The vice said that in Argentina the president always leads. Do people think the same? The debate on power and leadership.


Eduardo Paladini

10/27/2020 17:15

  • Clarín.com

  • Politics

Updated 10/27/2020 5:15 PM

The question appeared on May 18, 2019, in future mode, as soon as Cristina Kirchner decided that the candidate for president of the Frente de Todos would be Alberto Fernández and that she would accompany him as vice president.

Will he command or will she command?

And the question became present version on December 10, 2020, since they took office.

Who makes the decisions in the Government?

This Monday, the vice president gave her look, perhaps to detach herself from what she herself described as a "overwhelming" situation.

He said it like this: "If something is clear to me, it is that the decision-making system in the Executive Branch makes it

impossible for the President not to make

government

decisions

. He is the one who removes, puts or maintains officials. He is the one who sets policies. You may or may not like who is in the Casa Rosada. It may be

Menem, De La Rúa, Duhalde or Kirchner

. But it is not factually possible that the opinion of anyone other than the President prevails when making decisions ".

But

do people think the same?

No. And even the trend goes against the CFK theory.

Since the new management started,

public opinion was awarding more and more power to the vice

, to the detriment of its formal boss.

In their own way, the polls contradict the opinion of the former president.

Clarín

accessed and analyzed five national polls released in October that address the issue.

Synopsis: increasing incidence of CFK

The consultancy that

Lucas Romero

directs

, and who has been working for the world of politics since 2015, presented a comparative chart in its latest study.

It has

three scales

: May, June and October.

This month, it was a survey of

1,205 cases

, surveyed between 8 and 12. He repeated the questions he had been asking in the previous measurements:

National Synopsis Survey.

October 2020.

1.

Who takes the decisions in the Government of the Front of All?

2.

How much do you think Cristina Kirchner is influencing the decisions of the Alberto Fernández government?

To answer, he offered a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is "no incidence" and 5 is "high incidence".

The evolution was as follows: while variants 1 and 2 (with low incidence of CFK) never reached 30 points, remaining relatively stable,

4 and 5 (high incidence) grew by almost 14 points

: from 43.5% in May to 57.4% in October. 

Management & Fit: insufficient AF leadership

The firm led by

Mariel Fornoni

, with clients on both sides of the rift, presented a recent survey of

2,200 cases

, surveyed between October 17 and 21.

He made two proposals related to the Alberto-Cristina relationship.

National Survey of Management & Fit.

October 2020.

On the one hand, he asked:

"Who do you think currently has more power within the ruling party and the national government?"

.

The vice-winner

again

, with 51.8%

of the responses, against 34.8% who elected the President.

In the cut by gender, age and socioeconomic level,

those who see more influence

of the former president are

men

(53.3%), those

over 40

(52.4%) and those with

a high economic level

(62.8 %).

National Survey of Management & Fit.

October 2020.

On the other hand, M&F inquired:

"Do you think that President Alberto Fernández has enough leadership to carry out the leadership of the country?"

.

The

51.9% said "no"

, against 39.9% who said that "yes".

Those who

saw it as weakest

, again, were

men

(53.6%), those

over 40

(51%) and those with

a high economic level

(64.2%).

Opinion: what the government is like and how it should be

This consultancy, a pioneer in online measurements, tackled the issue in an original way.

Since February he has been asking

"how is the government"

and

"how should it be"

, always from the perspective of the respondent.

In October, the firm surveyed

1,800 cases

between 9 and 20.

In the evolution of these responses it is also seen how

the majority was perceiving more incidence of Cristina and they do not like it

.

In the last measurement, 53% thought that it is "a government close to Kirchnerism and CFK" (how it is), while 63% would like "a government with its own style" (how it should be).

National survey of Opinaia.

October 2020.

Only in April,

at the start of the pandemic and the best moment for Alberto Fernández's image, there were

more people who saw a management with "their own style"

than "close to Cristina."

Opinaia also asked the most direct question about

"who takes the main government measures?"

.

And there, according to the consultancy firm in its report,

for the first time more respondents chose Cristina

(40%)

over Alberto

(35%);

16% opted for the "both equally" variant and the rest "ns / nc".

Reale Dallatorre: can't or won't he?

This consultancy with origin in Mendoza, specialized in measurements in social networks, has also been monitoring the power relationship in the Government duo.

And, like the rest, his studies show the

greatest influence of the vice president

, in the general look.

National survey of Reale Dallatorre Consultores.

October 2020.

Between October 10 and 12,

RDT

surveyed

2,450 cases

.

He repeated the question from previous polls:

"At this moment, who do you think has more power in Argentina?"

.

It showed the results of the last month, but also those of May and July.

Alberto and Cristina's curves intersect

.

While the president went from adding 56.3% in May, to 42.5% in July and 31.5% in October, the vice president started at 20.4%, rose to 30.3% and finally reached 40.6 %,

coming first

.

The option "both equally", meanwhile, always remained stable, around 20 points.

National survey of Reale Dallatorre Consultores.

October 2020.

Another interesting picture of the work is when it was

inquired about Alberto Fernández's campaign promises

.

Did you comply or not comply?

And in both cases, why?

There also appeared the shadow of his running mate.

-

43.8% answered that the vice president "does not leave it"

: of that total, 24.3% warn that "there is also inefficiency in their government (Alberto's)";

while the remaining 19.5% argue that Cristina "forces him to prioritize his legal problems."


Giacobbe: more power from her

Jorge Giacobbe & Asociados

, meanwhile, the consulting firm headed by Jorge Giacobbe (son), one of the analysts with the most presence in the media, also measured

2,500 cases

in October

(surveyed between 14 and 15) and asked:

"Who has more power in government decision-making?"

.

Cristina got more than 20 points

from Alberto F.: 56.9% vs.

34.6%.


Jorge Giacobbe & Asociados national survey.

October 2020.

Source: clarin

All news articles on 2020-10-27

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