Is Latin America protected for a second wave?

Covid-19 infections increase in Europe 2:56

(CNN Spanish) -

Several Latin American countries top the list of nations with the most coronavirus infections, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

In this episode, Dr. Elmer Huerta analyzes whether there is a relationship between a high number of infections and greater protection of the population by the antibodies generated in those who have overcome the disease.

You can listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast platform, or read the transcript below.

Hello, I am Dr. Elmer Huerta and this is your daily dose of information about the new coronavirus.

Information that we hope will be useful to take care of your health and that of your family.

Today we will see if the Latin American countries that are past the first wave will be in danger of a second wave like the one we are seeing in Europe.

And if it is true that the fact that they have had high levels of contagion, it can protect them in the future.

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The second wave of coronavirus in the world

First, and knowing that we are facing a new disease and that science is learning as it faces the infection, it is very important to be cautious with the predictions.

Second, it is also very important to realize that the pandemic is advancing in waves through the different countries of Latin America, which are at various times in their evolution.

In this regard, each country in Latin America is at a different time in its epidemic.

When looking at the curves for new cases and deaths, no two countries have similar curves.

However, it is possible that, in the coming weeks, as happened in Europe, new cases and deaths will begin to progressively decrease, and there will be a situation of being in danger - as is also the case in Europe - of a second wave, of a resurgence of infection.

The case of Europe

At the time of writing this episode, Spain declared a state of national alarm.

And it is possible that it could be extended until May 2021.

France has its main cities under a curfew.

Belgium is severely affected, while Italy has imposed severe restrictions to save its economy.

Faced with this reality and looking in the European mirror, what care should Latin American countries have to avoid falling into the same problem, that is, a severe resurgence of the disease?

From what is known, when the numbers of new cases and deaths decreased, the European population perhaps thought that the problem had been overcome and solved and took to the streets seeking to alleviate what we described in the episode of October 20 as fatigue pandemic.

This attitude was facilitated by the provisions of the governments, which in their eagerness to stimulate the economy, allowed the opening of bars, restaurants and other types of businesses that favored the crowding of people.

The result has undoubtedly been the reality that the European continent is going through, a strong resurgence of the infection, which according to the WHO affects 80% of European countries.

Health policies in the face of a second wave

Without a doubt, the health policies that governments design for the coming weeks will be vital to avoid second waves.

In the same way, the personal responsibility of citizens will also be very important.

But there is an aspect that some political authorities think they can protect their countries from a resurgence of the disease: the belief, still unproven, that the numbers of infections have been much higher in Latin America than in Europe and therefore the population is already immune.

The fact is that, since it is not known for how long the natural disease protects, it is difficult to assert that the high frequency of infection in the population can be protective against a second wave.

Since it is not known how long one is protected and the true frequency of reinfections is unknown, it is risky to say that countries that have had a high frequency of infections will be protected from a possible second wave.

In that sense, a study, published on October 26 in Nature Microbiology by researchers from King's College of London, found that the level of protective antibodies against the new coronavirus decreases very rapidly and profoundly before three months in people with mild disease.

The decrease being less intense, but important, in people who had a more severe disease.

In summary, we believe that no country will be free from a second wave and that its severity will depend on the health policies that are designed, the responsibility of its inhabitants and the protection time provided by the antibodies after the initial infection.

Do you have questions about the coronavirus?

Send me your questions on Twitter, we will try to answer them in our next episodes.

You can find me at @DrHuerta.

If you think this podcast is helpful, help others find it by rating and reviewing it on your favorite podcast app.

We will be back tomorrow so be sure to subscribe to get the latest episode on your account.

And for the most up-to-date information, you can always head to CNNEspanol.com.

Thanks for your attention.

If you have any questions you can send them to Dr. Elmer Huerta via Twitter.

You can also head over to CNNE.com/coronaviruspodcast for all episodes of our “Coronavirus: Reality vs. Reality” podcast.

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