The US president is not directly elected.
This is why surveys are often difficult to evaluate.
We provide an overview of the developments before the 2020 US election.
On November
3rd,
the Americans can elect their new president.
Predictions
based on
polls
ahead of
2020 presidential election
.
In the
2020 US election
, Donald Trump and Joe Biden are direct competitors.
With our free US election newsletter you are always well informed.
Update from October 27, 10:28 p.m.:
A week before
the
US
presidential election
, more than
69 million Americans
have already
cast their votes.
That corresponds to more than half of all the votes that were cast in the election four years ago, according to data from the
US Elections Project
by political scientist Michael McDonald of the University of Florida
on Tuesday
.
According to the FEC election commission, around
137 million Americans
voted in
2016
.
Because of the
coronavirus pandemic
, it is expected that more Americans than usual will make use of the opportunity to vote in person or by
postal
vote before the actual election day
.
According to the project's data, significantly more registered
Democrats
than
Republicans appear
to have cast their votes early.
Registering with a party does not necessarily say anything about voting behavior.
US election 2020: Trump and Biden with new campaign spots before the decisive phase
Update from October 27th, 7:24 p.m.:
Joe Biden
and
Donald Trump
want to
score points
with very different campaign
spots
in the last days before the
US presidential election
.
The Biden team presented a series of commercials on Tuesday in which the challenger, among other things, implored the unity of the deeply divided country and
affirmed
his support for the
"Black Lives Matter"
movement.
He also turned to the voters and called on them to end the "dark, angry politics" of recent years under President Trump.
In
contrast,
President Trump's
election campaign team
published a new spot accusing Biden of “lighting up the flames” in “burning cities” in the United States.
The advertising alludes to isolated outbreaks of violence in the wake of the protests against
racism
and
police violence
in recent months.
Just a week before the
November 3rd
US election
, Biden has
a clear advantage over
Trump in
terms of
campaign donations
and the associated
advertising budget
.
According to observers, he spends significantly more money on TV advertising in the contested states than the incumbent.
US election polls: decision is made in swing states
First report from October 27, 2020:
Munich / Washington, DC - One week before the
2020 US election
on November 3, the
survey tools
on social networks are slowly getting hot.
What expressiveness can be attributed to this is controversial.
Depending on the circles in which the questioner moves, the results are all different.
The 45th President of the United States,
Donald Trump (Republican)
, has collected a large number of polls on his Twitter page over the past few weeks.
The striking thing about them is the clear lead that Donald Trump has over competitor
Joe Biden
in most cases
.
If you take a look
around
the
Democratic
camp instead
, the picture looks different again.
Here Joe Biden usually leads Donald Trump.
This assessment is more in line with the official surveys carried out by universities, for example.
US election 2020: Trump wants the polls to speak for themselves - and gets a direct counterattack
A user on Twitter pointed out to
Donald Trump
that it was not really meaningful to
pick
a
suitable survey
.
After all, you could then choose one of the polls in which
Joe Biden is
way ahead of Trump.
Not to say you are wrong, but picking 1 recent poll out of 20+ polls might be selection bias.
We could also pick Biden +12 in the USC poll but that would be just as wrong as picking one poll with a favorable result.
Everyone should vote.
And let all the votes be counted.
pic.twitter.com/whTDva8DPx
- Bob McNab (@mceconomist) October 27, 2020
2020 US presidential election - will Americans vote for Biden or for Trump?
The
USC Dornsife department of
the
University of Southern California (USC)
studies and tracks the opinions of 6,000 Americans about the
2020 presidential election
in the
USA
and how these will change over time.
The numbers for a day are based on the assessments of the last fourteen days.
The
USC Dornsife
poll
shows a strong tendency towards a
majority
for
Joe Biden
.
He has been between nine and twelve percent ahead of Donald Trump since the end of August.
The last five assemblies follow (as of October 27, 2020, 2:41 p.m.):
Day | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | head Start |
|---|---|---|---|
10/26/2020 | 42.5 | 53.28 | +10.78 |
October 19, 2020 | 41.87 | 53.51 | +11.64 |
10/12/2020 | 41.29 | 53.97 | +12.68 |
05/10/2020 | 42.25 | 52.8 | +10.55 |
09/28/2020 | 42.18 | 51.57 | +9.39 |
Biden before Trump?
Surveys show a clear picture - but how meaningful is it?
Due to the
electoral system in the USA
, however, the individual votes are not relevant for winning the election.
The
Americans
choose so-called election People / electors, not the president directly.
To win the
presidential
election, a candidate must win a majority of the electorate.
The technology company Morning Consult conducts over 4,000
surveys
with potential voters
every day
and has achieved the following
results
:
At the
national level
, Biden (52%) leads with nine percent ahead of Trump (43%).
In the
“unsafe” states
, Biden leads in Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - while Trump only got a lead in South Carolina.
The following are still unsafe: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.
According to the results of
Morning Consult
leading
Democrats
even in the
congressional elections in 2020
against the
Republicans
.
This is particularly relevant after the 2018 elections, as Donald Trump had to give up some power even then.
Congress is crucial when it comes to implementing political ideas in the
US
.
Click
here for the old ticker about the US elections 2020.
(jey)
List of rubric lists: © pa / Evan Vucci / Patrick Semansky
