Trump's rejection puts Arizona in line with Democrats

Peg Bohnert assures that the friends she goes out with have decided to vote for Democrat Joe Biden, like her, next Tuesday.

There is another that doesn't, he says, but they don't talk about it.

Bohnert is 73 years old, a widow, and lives in a nice neighborhood in Scottsdale, a wealthy neighborhood in North Phoenix, Arizona.

This corner of the United States is deeply Republican, like her, who voted for Donald Trump in 2016. But when she decided to support Biden this year, she told her parish priest, who assured her that there was no reason to worry, that she had to stay firm even if some people turned their backs on him for backing the Democrat.

Bohnert is not looking forward to voting for a man older than her (Biden is 77 years old), but she wants some "decency, honesty, kindness and empathy."

The State of Arizona has had a contradictory relationship with the Trump phenomenon.

It was here that for the first time, in the summer of 2015, the candidate was seen to be able to fill the precincts with people enthusiastic about his racist comments.

People who, however, did not attend the events of other Republican politicians.

Republican Senator John McCain went so far as to say that Trump had "turned the madmen on fire" in the party.

What happened next is known.

An offended Trump replied that McCain was not a war hero because he "had been captured" in Vietnam.

The comment outraged the Republican Party, but it didn't matter.

And those "crazy" took the tycoon to the White House.

Meanwhile, the relationship between Trump and McCain deteriorated, to the point that, as president, Trump was not invited to the senator's funeral in September 2018.

It is difficult to understand, outside of Arizona, the political significance of McCain's figure in this southwestern US state. The former hero of the Vietnam War, a congressman for four years and a senator for three decades, was also the presidential candidate. from Republicans to the White House in 2008. The videos of his speeches in that campaign, how he addressed his rival, Barack Obama, contrast with Trump's aggressive tone.

In 2016, Trump won Arizona by 90,000 votes, the smallest advantage for a Republican president in this state.

There were 100,000 people who voted for McCain, who was running for reelection as a senator in those same elections, and not for Trump on the same ballot.

Peg Bohnert did vote for Trump.

“I was not excited by either of the two applicants [Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump].

But I thought it was time to end the Clinton and Bush dynasties, career politicians, and give a businessman who seemed to know what he was doing.

She was convinced that she was intelligent and that, even without knowing anything about governing, she would know how to surround herself with capable people, "Bohnert explains in her living room.

He says he realized his mistake on the first day of his presidency, January 21, 2017, when the White House stunned the country by saying that Trump's inauguration was the presidential inauguration with the most attendees in history, “period ”.

That was just the beginning.

Bohnert is part of a trend of Republicans that supports Biden (Republicans for Biden, it's called) and that includes Cindy McCain, the senator's widow and one of the most prominent figures of the Republicans, among more than a hundred known names .

Mrs. McCain is even making pro-Democrat announcements.

Grant Woods, former Arizona attorney general and former McCain chief of staff is also on the list: "I thought Trump was an existential threat to the United States, and it has been 100 times worse than I feared," Woods tells EL PAÍS .

"There are a lot of Republicans, independents, and conservative Democrats who support Biden," he continues.

The Republican who voted for McCain now has "serious problems" supporting Trump, he illustrates.

Biden's candidacy, coupled with rejection of Trump, may have forged the most ideologically broad electoral alliance this southern state has ever seen.

“It is very encouraging to see people who disagree on many things, put those disagreements aside and come together to defend what is right at a key moment in our history,” Woods says.

“I think it is a laboratory.

If Biden wins Arizona, he wins the race. "

There are several arithmetic combinations in the Eastern states that make Arizona's 11 electoral votes the key to this election.

The data supports it.

Polling median over the past month gives Biden a 2.4-point lead in Arizona, a state that has only voted for four Democrats in a century.

This advantage in votes seems to be supported by a strange experiment that serves as a thermometer for the rest of the country.

It's hard to gauge the true strength of this group of Republicans who support Biden.

All those interviewed for this report make one thing clear: they have not stopped being Republicans.

They vote for the Democratic Party as something exceptional.

"If the candidate was Jeb Bush or John Kasich, or any other decent Republican, I would vote Republican," Bohnert says.

In Arizona, that winning combination is becoming a reality that can decide the outcome in the suburbs of the cities, and in the country.

This was exactly the bet of the Democrats when they chose Biden in the primaries, rather than other candidates with a more risky profile.

Also retired judge Dan Barker, a Republican and leader of a Mormon church, has been printing posters since the summer that read "Arizona Republicans for Biden."

He has formed a group called "Arizona Republicans Who Believe in Treating Others with Respect," alluding to the wishes of the late McCain.

Now he regrets that some tear the posters from the gardens where they put them.

"We have an opportunity to heal as a nation and become stronger if Joe Biden is president."

Adding to the push of the Republican group that supports Biden is an electorate that has been changing in Arizona for a decade.

Latinos in the state, bordering Sonora (Mexico), already make up 23.6% of the voters.

This is a generation that became involved in politics as a result of Law SB1070, a racist law passed in 2010 that allowed the police to ask for documentation only because of the appearance of a person.

The mobilization it provoked among Latinos in the state explains why in 2016 voters fired

racist

Joe Arpaio and that in 2018 Arizona elected Democratic senator Kyrsten Sinema.

So Arizona became a

state

.

Eduardo Sainz is one of those who got into politics precisely because of that law.

Today he leads the organization Mi Familia Vota in Phoenix, dedicated to registering Latino voters.

"This year alone we have already registered 150,000 voters," he said in an interview in Phoenix in late September.

"This year, Arizona is key to the elections and Latinos have the key to the White House."

Lorna Romero, who was the communications chief for McCain's last campaign, agrees to highlight the independent profile of the Arizona center-right voter.

He agrees that the dynamics seem to favor Biden, but he misses realism.

"The question here is what the numbers are," says Romero.

“Rural Arizona is very different from Maricopa County [the Phoenix metropolitan area].

We forget the rest of the state, and we forget that the Phoenix suburbs are Republican. "

That is the question.

What are the numbers.

"It's not done," says Romero of Biden's choice.

In addition, he warns that the voter, especially the independent, likes to be asked for the vote.

Biden has barely set foot in Arizona.

To win an election "you have to fight it every day, you can't take it for granted, that was [Hillary] Clinton's mistake."

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