Natasha Niebieskikwiat
10/29/2020 18:42
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 10/29/2020 6:42 PM
"Sorry that I cannot offer a more optimistic vision. But to be more optimistic, you should see a macroeconomic plan, consensus within the Alberto Fernández administration and a shared vision of society,"
Benjamin Gedan,
Director of the Project “Argentina” and Deputy Director of the Latin American Program at the
Woodrow Wilson Center,
one of the most influential think tanks in the United States today and a consultant for Joe Biden's team.
Minutes earlier, he had given a brief overview of the presidential elections that will take place in the United States on Tuesday the 3rd and how he saw Argentina today.
They were harsh definitions of who worked for the White House of Barack Obama, and is expected to return to power if Democrat Biden is elected president.
"From my perspective it is a quite serious situation in macroeconomic terms because I do not see that the Argentine government has a transparent macroeconomic plan with enough content to reassure the markets, investors and more importantly, the Argentines, who do not have it now. confidence in their own currency. Nor do they have the minimum consensus within the same government coalition to be able to build a vision for the future of the country and the management of the economy, "Gedan began in a virtual exhibition from Washington, which he presented in Buenos Aires. Aires,
Luis Ruvira
, president of the Fundación Diálogo Argentino Americano.
Gedan even argued that in the face of this scenario there were few possibilities for Argentina to have the capacity to reach an agreement with the IMF, and to access international financial markets.
"That is why Argentina has no alternative. It has to print pesos and worsen inflation and, at some point the Central Bank will run out of reserves necessary to defend the national currency. We can see a strong devaluation that would generate even more inflation and less trust in the entire political-economic system, "said Gedan, who in addition to different academic positions maintains one foot in politics.
He was
Director for South America of the National Security Council of the White House
, responsible for the Argentina Desk in the State Department, he covered Central America and the Caribbean as an international economist in the Treasury Department.
Although the Wilson Center maintains a neutral position, it is said that Gedan could have an important position in an eventual government of Democrat Joseph Biden.
"I saw what the former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, the vice president, wrote a few days ago talking a bit about the need to build consensus within society, to generate a space for national dialogue. It would be very valuable. But at the same time I I know that she was an important source of the famous rift. I don't know if she and the current president are the right people to build this national consensus or at least a vision within Peronism. "
Faced with the questions from
Clarín and
other attendees at his presentation, Gedan considered Argentina a "somewhat isolated" country from the interests of the United States.
"This has to do with the lack of opportunities for multinational companies because obviously we do not see economic growth in Argentina", which is seen in its third year of recession.
"For this reason, if the largest companies are not very interested in the country, I also do not see in the government that it seeks to have a very close relationship with the United States"
Regarding the elections and the panorama that opens for Argentina before the victory of Donald Trump or Joe Biden on Tuesday 3, Gedan recalled the
little importance that Trump gave to Latin America even to make international alliances,
something that with the democrat Biden It would be very different given his expertise in foreign relations and his tenure in the White House, where he was Barack Obama's vice president for eight years.
However, the opportunity was not lacking to recall the differences that exist with the United States on the Venezuela issue, an issue that would not be minor either for Biden.
"Argentina
has
now
shown no interest in facing democratic challenges and defending the human rights of the Venezuelan people
, in coordinating with the Lima group other countries that are very involved in the issue, or in taking advantage of its relationship with the Caracas regime to promote negotiations or generate a vision for democratic transition, "he said.
"Argentina is not a regional partner to solve the crisis."
This year, Martín Guzmán (Minister of Economy), Sabina Frederic (Security), Felipe Solá (Chancellor), and Gustavo Béliz, Secretary of Strategic Affairs, paraded through the Wilson Center this year in different virtual exhibitions.