Corona in Germany: soon up to 800 corona deaths per week? Experts with gloomy prognosis

The latest forecasts from a research group from Göttingen (Lower Saxony) do not bode well.

Up to 800 corona deaths per week are therefore possible. 

• Corona

  * research: Worrying findings from

  Göttingen

  (

  Lower Saxony

  ).

• Research team led by

  Viola Priesemann

  from the

  Max Planck Institute

  publishes new findings.

• The

  deaths

  will rise in the next two weeks, according to the researchers.

Göttingen - The number of deaths from

in

could

double in the first two weeks of November.

It would then be 500 to 800 cases per week.

The increase may be even greater.

The result is a team led by Viola Priesemann, head of a research group at the

for Dynamics and Self-Organization (MPIDS) in Göttingen.

The researchers in

came to this conclusion through a model-based analysis.

Corona research in Lower Saxony: the death rate increases with the age of the infected

The researchers in Göttingen have been observing the

developments since March.

In their observations, the researchers paid special attention to the effect of the countermeasures.

The

-

spread by the end of September, especially among the under-60s from.

This is also the reason for the currently comparatively low number of deaths, according to the research team in

.

Other research institutions in

came to this conclusion.

Since the end of September the number of sick people over 60 has been increasing again.

"With a delay of around two weeks, this also leads to an increase in deaths, which can already be clearly observed"

Göttingen research team led by Viola Priesemann

Corona research in Göttingen: This is how the death rates differ in comparison

During the first wave of

-

died in the week of 13 to April 19, 2020 in Germany almost 1,600 people with or at

-

.

The number of new infections with

had peaked with more than 35,000 reported cases in seven days for two weeks.

In the video: cold, flu or corona?

These symptoms indicate a corona infection

In the week from October 21 to 28, there were

more than 85,000 confirmed new infections

in

; in the same period, 335 people died of or with

.

The research group in

analyzed the increase in reported new infections by age group.

From the observed mortality in the respective age group, the team in

how the number of deaths from

developing.

Model calculation by the researchers in Lower Saxony: Development of deaths occurs with a delay

In their model calculations, the researchers in

also assumed that the development of deaths follows the number of reported new infections with a 14-day delay.

Study: End of school has reduced the spread of Corona by 40 percent

Göttingen study by a team around Viola Priesemann.

There it was examined what effects coronavirus measures in Germany had on the spread of the coronavirus. # Laschet # COVID19https: //t.co/oFWDuieIUV

- 𝕁Üℝ𝔾𝔼ℕ 🍀🍀 (@Ein_Edelweis) June 5, 2020

“The results of our model calculations agree very well with the observed developments in all age groups.

Therefore, our forecasts for the next two weeks should also be reliable. " 

Viola Priesemann

Corona research in Lower Saxony: The course of fatal diseases depends on age

Any predictions beyond that are difficult, according to the research team from

.

The development of the number of deaths in connection with a

depends heavily on the infection rate in people over 80.

One of the current problems is the contact persons in the younger age groups. These could no longer be consistently pursued by the health authorities, let alone isolated, according to the researchers from

.

“The number of unreported cases, i.e. the number of undetected carriers of the virus, is obviously increasing.

We have thus passed a tipping point in the infection process in many districts, from which it becomes difficult to control the epidemic. " 

Viola Priesemann

The number of cases would have to be reduced immediately, otherwise even stricter measures to contain the

and protect the

would be necessary.

According to the research team from

, this is necessary at the latest when the hospital capacity reaches its limits

.

(Thomas Kopietz and Lucas Maier)