Whoever wins the presidential elections, the fear seems to grow among citizens and experts that party polarization and mistrust in the political system will fuel an outbreak of violence in the streets.
Federal security forces and election officials, including those in charge of voting and counting center security, are taking extra precautions in the face of troubling signs.
Militias and extremist groups have been honing themselves since the summer not only to intervene in protests but even to kidnap political leaders, according to a report by analyst ACLED.
And gun sales have exploded: Eight of the top 10 weeks since the 1990s have been in the past eight months, according to The New York Times.
Buyers are both left and right, conservative and liberal.
Walmart withdrew weapons and ammunition from direct sale at thousands of centers across the country on Thursday due to the risk of "civil unrest," although hours later it reversed its decision, claiming they were isolated incidents.
The election has also increased the anxiety and fear of citizens, above the levels of 2016, according to a survey by the American Psychological Association (APA, in English), for fear that the result will impact their lives and safety.
About 70% of Americans say that choice is a stressor, according to this survey, up from 52% in 2016. Some groups, such as African Americans and people with health problems, pressure is felt more acutely , with issues such as racial equality and access to health at the center of the electoral agenda.
What is seen on the ground
The number of hate groups increased from 918 in 2016 to 941 in 2019, according to a map produced by the Southern Poverty Law Center.
“The Trump presidency has turned them on.
It's very difficult to reverse that process now, ”Raúl Moreno Campos, political science professor at Cal State Channel Islands, explained to the Los Angeles Times.
Trump Refuses To Condemn White Supremacists During First Presidential Debate
Sept.
30, 202002: 48
In the summer, as thousands of people took to the streets demanding police reform and an end to racial injustice, radical groups trained in urban and rural combat and honed their tactics.
This is indicated by a report by ACLED, a non-governmental organization that analyzes data on possible armed conflicts and that has tracked more than 80 militias in recent months.
The report concludes that some key states in the electoral dispute are at increased risk of violence and unrest, especially in state capitals and peripheral, rural and suburban areas.
The threat is high in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while North Carolina, Texas, Virginia, California and New Mexico are at moderate risk.
There are very active far-right groups seeking to align with the security forces, and others with a strong presence on the streets, such as the Proud Boys, whom Trump has avoided publicly condemning.
There are also libertarian groups with a history of fighting against security forces, such as Boogaloo Bois.
Both the Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Bureau of Investigation identified far-right groups and racist movements as a risk factor in November, according to recent reports from The Nation and The New York Times.
These threats have put federal and state agents on alert, a report by NBC News indicates.
Although there are positive signs.
The ACLED report indicates that some groups are more receptive to de-escalation requests and avoiding conflicts.
The impact on voters
Not only the pandemic, which has already claimed more than 220,000 lives in the United States, has undermined the emotional well-being of Americans in 2020. In this election year, dissent and hostilities between antagonistic groups have reignited.
To this cocktail we must add the repeated episodes of racial violence, the economic crisis and the natural disasters that intensify with climate change.
"The result is an accumulation of stressors, and Americans are paying a price physically and emotionally," explains Arthur C. Evans Jr., CEO of APA.
How the Latino vote can decide which candidate wins these key states
Oct. 29, 202002: 03
For some Latinos with first-hand experience of political violence, revolutions, and stolen elections, this election can spark even more anxiety and rekindle old fears.
Scenarios of violence and political instability are precisely those that many Latinos who immigrated to the United States seek to avoid.
And some also fear being targeted by anti-immigrant and white supremacist groups, according to a Los Angeles Times report.
"You feel fear, because it is a threat to the community, to the country's democracy and, of course, it reminds me of what happened in Guatemala, because by wanting to use weapons, you want to impose your ideas by force," he told the newspaper. Aldo Waykan, a Guatemalan businessman and translator.
Waykan arrived in the United States in 1990 seeking refuge precisely from the civil war that destroyed his native country.
Will there be a social outbreak?
The recent history does not imply that episodes of violence are impossible, but it does give favorable indications for a peaceful continuation or transfer of power.
Ninety-five percent of the 12,607 politically motivated demonstrations in the United States between May 24 and September 19, 2020, were peaceful, according to an analysis published by The Conversation.
[Can there be violence on Election Day? Here's what the experts say]
The protests over the death of George Floyd were largely peaceful.
Still there are those who fear that there will be violent incidents in possible marches in the elections (Archive) .AP
Another way to predict institutional instability is by analyzing what happened in historical cases in different countries, says Ore Koren, a professor at Indiana University.
Studies of this type reveal three factors to take into account, he points out in a report for The Conversation.
First, the United States has strong institutions, even though Trump has refused to accept the election result.
Second, Koren indicates that the United States has the capacity to prevent violence.
Although the civilian militias are loved, he says, they are not a real match for the National Guard or the Army.
Finally, the country does not have, like others, a recent history of an armed conflict.
After the 2016 elections, there were massive protests and some riots, but there were no fatalities.
Misinformation and false data on COVID-19 have Trump as a common factor, study finds
Oct. 1, 202002: 38
With information from The Conversation, The New York Times, The Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times.