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Why is Europe unable to stop the second wave of the coronavirus?

2020-10-31T15:51:18.789Z


Cases are increasing relentlessly in almost the entire continent and in many countries they already exceed the peak of March-April. Errors and new measures.


The vanguard

10/31/2020 12:39 PM

  • Clarín.com

  • World

Updated 10/31/2020 12:39 PM

Europe is once again the global epicenter of the pandemic, for the first time since April.

46% of the new coronavirus cases detected throughout the planet in the last week are concentrated in this continent, which accounts for 9.6% of the world's population.

Of the 15 countries with the highest incidence rate –the number of cases in the last 14 days out of 100,000 inhabitants– only Argentina, at number 12, is not European.

The ranking is led by Andorra, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Armenia, the Netherlands, Slovenia, France, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Switzerland and Montenegro.

Since mid-October,

Europe has once again overtaken America as the continent with the most new cases

.

This Thursday added 239,085 infections, almost double the 143,411 in the entire American continent.

There are still more people dying, but Europe is hot on its heels.

On Thursday there were 2,952 American and 2,482 European deaths.

Seven months after the first wave of the coronavirus ravaged Europe, the second ruthlessly attacks the old continent, breaking down the protective barriers erected during the summer truce.

They suffer regions that already had a very bad time in spring and others that came out almost unscathed.

The lockdowns and curfews are back

.

Empty bars in the center of Freiburg, Germany.

They are closed from this week to avoid more Covid infections.

Photo: AP

What has happened?

Why has Europe failed again?

The case evolution curves draw a pattern that is repeated from country to country.

Some before (Spain was the first) and others later (Eastern and Central Europe), but the trajectory is almost identical, says biophysicist Daniel López, a member of the Biocomsc research group on Covid at the UPC.

"At the end of summer there is a slow but sustained growth of the cases, linked to the change of habits, until a moment comes when the control capacity is exceeded and the infections soar explosively", he says.

The data indicate that one by one all epidemiological surveillance systems, the capacity to detect cases and trace contacts, are being exceeded.

Even the German, so reputed, that it allowed the country to weather the first wave much better than its western neighbors.

This week, announcing the closure of restaurants and bars, Angela Merkel said that Germany is no longer able to track 75% of infections.

The map of deaths from coronavirus in the world, updated to October 31.

/ AFP

It has also happened in countries like Italy, which after the spring debacle seemed to be doing everything right.

"The Italians have carried out a high-quality control, lengthened the state of emergency and maintained strict measures for a long time," says López.

"They have taken longer, but in the end they have also seen how the infections exceeded the control threshold", adds the expert.

Where is that threshold located?

It depends on the sanitary and epidemiological surveillance capacities of each country, but according to Biocomsc calculations it is in the range that goes from an incidence rate of 100 to 150 cases in 14 days.

Above these levels, it is impossible to trace contacts.

In Europe, only Greece, Norway, Finland and Estonia are below.

Andorra exceeds 1,700, the Czech Republic and Belgium, 1,200.

The speed at which the infection is progressing in countries such as Luxembourg and Slovenia raises concerns that they will exceed the 1,000 threshold soon.

Global balance of the pandemic, updated until this Saturday. / AFP

The European shortcomings have been in evidence

.

Experts had been warning since the summer that precious time was being lost and not enough had been invested to reinforce the tracking structures, much less powerful than in Asia.

Asians were the first to be hit by the virus but, with more experience in epidemics than Europeans, they have been much more successful.

With 273,678 deaths from Covid-19,

Europe accumulates 23.43% of global victims, compared to 7.8% in Asia and Oceania

.

Some people minimize the explosion of European cases, arguing that many more tests are now being carried out.

The explanation is valid when comparing with spring, when only those who arrived at the hospital were tested and all the rest escaped, but not so much with the end of summer, when a large proportion of asymptomatic patients were already detected.

The percentage of tests that are positive is unappealable: in Belgium, they have gone from 2% in mid-September to more than 18% now;

from 4% to 30% in the Czech Republic.

Mortality remains below the marks of March and April

, but the figures do not stop growing: in the last week in many countries as many people died as in the weeks before the spring peak.

This is the case of France and the United Kingdom, which in the last week have added about 1,200 deaths, a figure very similar to the 1,500 that had two weeks before reaching the peak of 6,000 deaths in spring.

The Czechs, who in spring did not exceed 52 weekly deaths, are at 725.

The Spanish Civil Guard controls the accesses to the city of Navacerrada, near Madrid, where circulation is restricted.

Photo: REUTERS

Saturated hospitals

Hospital saturation worsens in all countries.

Hospitalizations have risen 88% in Belgium, where half of the ICU beds are occupied.

Ten hospitals have positive but asymptomatic health workers working.

"It is very important that we act quickly," warns Bruno Ciancio, who heads the team dedicated to the coronavirus of the European Center for Disease Control (ECDC, in English), which points out that both infections and deaths are increasing.

The average incidence has grown in a week from 250 to 360 cases, and has gone from 17 to 25 deaths per million inhabitants.

The priority, Ciancio stresses, is to strengthen hospitals, including intensive care units.

"Today we have better treatments and severe cases are less likely to die than in spring, but first we must make sure that everyone has a bed," he says.

To curb the high levels of transmission,

many countries will have no choice but to re-confine,

admits Ciancio.

Belgium, France, Ireland or Wales have already done it.

The doctor compares it to the use of a broad-spectrum antibiotic.

“You kill all the bacteria, also the good ones, and reduce the effectiveness of future antibiotics.

Confinement is something similar.

You lower the transmission of the virus, there is no doubt about that, but you damage children's access to education, the treatment of chronic patients or the economy.

And each confinement increases the resistance of the population to the measures.

That is why we recommend very surgical and time-limited confinements ”, he says.

The ECDC expert calls for reflection on the

errors

that have led Europe to this situation, so as not to repeat them: “In July and August, the virus was there, although transmission was low as a result of the strong measures taken in spring.

If the virus is established in the community, its transmission only depends on our behavior, on whether or not we respect certain measures, ”says Ciancio.

“Now we will eventually manage to lower the cases, albeit at a high price.

Therefore, when the situation is under control, we must maintain certain measures for a long period of time.

It is very clear what they are: they include

physical distance, wearing a mask and avoiding meeting in closed places

.

These measures, strictly adhered to, are equally effective in keeping the virus at bay.

People must understand that this pandemic is like a marathon and is won by keeping the same pace until the end, not sprinting and then relaxing ”, he concludes.

By Gemma Saura and Laura Aragó

Look also

“Difficult winter”: Europe exceeds 10 million cases of coronavirus and is once again the epicenter of the pandemic

Coronavirus breaks a world record for daily cases, with Europe at the epicenter

Source: clarin

All news articles on 2020-10-31

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