Paula lugones
11/04/2020 4:37 PM
Clarín.com
World
Updated 11/04/2020 4:38 PM
Americans and those who were awaiting the outcome of the US elections went to sleep Tuesday with the feeling that Donald Trump would stay another four years in the White House.
But they woke up to a completely different scenario, with a Joe Biden with a greater chance of winning
. What happened in the middle?
Trump opened the night with a resounding victory in Florida and then Ohio, two key states that are generally on the road to victory.
It had strong advantages in Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin, plus the states that are usually Republican.
When the scrutiny in those districts progressed, they reached almost 80% or more of the count and it seemed an irreversible advantage,
Trump was proclaimed the winner publicly, while Biden asked for patience.
But then
early vote counts began to come in
, most by mail in those key states.
As in general the votes by mail are from urban centers, from people concerned about the contagion of the coronavirus in the electoral headquarters, it is estimated that the vast majority are Democrats.
That's why the numbers in those states began to change rapidly at dawn: Biden went on to lead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada, which opened the doors to reach the White House, even without Pennsylvania.
What can happen now?
With a record turnout, 100 million people voted in advance.
With nearly 70 million votes, Biden is on his way to being the most voted president in history
, 3 million ahead of his rival.
It is very possible that the few votes that remain to be counted (some will only be counted on Friday, we will have to wait) are Democrats because they are by mail.
In Pennsylvania, Trump maintains an advantage, but the remaining votes are from districts like
Philadelphia and surrounding areas that are overwhelmingly Democratic
.
Even without Pennsylvania, Biden could win with Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.
"Surprise vote"
Aware that his second term is threatened, Trump has been tweeting since last night
that there is fraud
, that they are stealing and that "surprise votes" appear that are Democrats.
That is true, they may be surprising for him, but they are legal votes that "appear" now because the court determined that they should be counted at the end, the scrutiny could even be extended until Friday, as long as the postmark indicated that it had been issued before Tuesday.
According to experts, it
is possible to ask for the recount only when there is a difference of less than 1%
and this is the case in Wisconsin, although it would be difficult for a new recount to turn 20,000 votes, the advantage that Biden has there.
"They would have to discover a tremendous error,"
electoral legislation specialist Louis Caldera
told
Clarín
.
Until now there has been no complaint of irregularities
, only Trump sought to install the issue with his statements, something very typical of him.
The insistence of certain "alternative facts" - a term coined by former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway - is to foreground a story that will benefit you should you ultimately lose.
The strategy is also to ask for the vote counting to be stopped.
But, as in any democracy, you just have to wait for all the votes to be counted.
Look also
Elections in the United States: Trump will ask for the counting of votes in Wisconsin and suspend the count in Michigan, two key states
Joe Biden beats Barack Obama's vote record and is the most voted candidate in the history of the United States