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Green chief Annalena Baerbock, Robert Habeck
Photo: Patrick Pleul / DPA
Basically, the calculation is simple:
A new edition of the grand coalition?
Politically undesirable.
Black and yellow or red and red?
No majorities in sight.
The AfD in the government?
Inconceivably.
One thing seems to be inevitable - at least for the moment, about ten months before the federal election: Anyone who wants to rule in Germany after the decision in autumn 2021 cannot avoid one party: the Greens.
After its soaring in recent years, the eco-party holds second place in the polls, behind the Union and ahead of the SPD.
And the Greens do everything for their part that they could with everyone if the worst comes to the worst.
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Success frenzy: Habeck and Baerbock after their election to the top of the Greens in January 2018
Photo: Bernd von Jutrczenka / dpa
In social and societal politics, the party retains its large overlaps with the left camp.
At the same time, the Grünenspitze recently started a real flirting offensive towards the Union - including a languishing congratulatory message on the CDU birthday.
At the weekend the Greens want to adopt their new basic program at their party congress.
This is unlikely to change their party-political flexibility.
But while the Greens may have a free choice of partners after the general election, they are confronting potential coalition partners with a dilemma.
Much sought-after partner and biggest competitor
Both in the conservative and in the left spectrum you need the strengthened Greens for power.
The Union could either govern alone with the Greens or, if it is not enough, in a Jamaican alliance with the FDP.
The left only hope for red-red-green.
In addition, the SPD could at best speculate on a traffic light coalition with the FDP.
The Greens would be there too.
At the same time, all of these parties are fighting for votes with the eco party.
The Greens drive a middle course, critics accuse them of arbitrariness.
But the bottom line is that they score points in both progressive and more conservative milieus.
The Greens are not only a much sought-after partner - they are also perhaps the greatest competitor for the other parties.
The problem has long been identified in the party headquarters of the Union, SPD and Left.
The preparations for the federal election campaign are in full swing.
Ultimately, the decisive question will be: How much attack can a party with whom you want to make common cause tolerate?
"Not engaged to each other"
The misery is currently particularly evident among the
left
.
The comrades are fighting a tough battle with the Greens, especially among young voters and in urban centers.
The left-wing leadership is pushing for the party to be given a sharp climate policy profile.
The course is quite controversial internally.
On the radical left edge of the party, the Greens are seen as willing helpers of right-wing predatory capitalism.
Of course, this has nothing to do with the official course of the left.
The party leadership tried in the past to maintain good contact with the Green leadership.
Nevertheless, there are likely to be sharp attacks in the election campaign.
A few days ago the outgoing party executive agreed on an election strategy.
The paper is available to SPIEGEL.
In it, the left devotes itself to the Greens in greater detail than any other party.
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Left boss Katja Kipping: Ask about the contradictions
Photo: Robert Michael / dpa
One wants to ask the Greens with their "contradictions", it says there.
And it sounds like this: "Environmentally damaging motorway construction and deforestation, scrapping bonus, no free public transport - the Greens regularly lose their compass when they enter into coalitions with the CDU."
In social policy, that is the analysis of the left, the Greens remained rather vague, dealing with "empty phrases".
Party leader Katja Kipping told SPIEGEL: "Whenever we advertise for new left majorities, we will not pretend that we are all engaged to each other."
More attack?
Similar difficulties are faced
in the
SPD
.
From 1998 to 2005, the Social Democrats ruled with the Greens in the federal government.
And basically, the former partner is still the party that comes closest to the comrades in terms of content.
But now the Greens are threatening to overtake them.
The SPD has to end up in front of the Greens in the federal election so that its top candidate Olaf Scholz has a chance to become chancellor.
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SPD General Secretary Lars Klingbeil
Photo:
Michael Kappeler / dpa
Leading Social Democrats look envious and at times frustrated at the rise of the Greens.
Some have the feeling that the media public does not illuminate the contradictions of the opposition party enough.
This somewhat noisy attitude in turn annoys others in the SPD leadership.
In any case, the party has not yet found a common strategy for dealing with the desired partner.
Parts of the parliamentary group leadership want to focus more on attack.
The parliamentary group leader Carsten Schneider recently said that the SPD would increasingly put the politics of the Greens to the test.
Schneider's conclusion: "The fur is very thin there."
Secretary General Lars Klingbeil also repeatedly tips the eco-party with relish.
"Some are reacting the country, others are already sharing posts for the end of 2021," Klingbeil recently etched on Twitter.
The occasion was reports that the Greens could claim the Ministry of Finance after the election.
Klingbeil and Schneider also gleefully butchered the mistakes made by Greens boss Robert Habeck, be it with the commuter allowance or with the tasks of the financial supervisory authority Bafin.
Many party leftists think little of this course.
A leading comrade says that you are only helping the Greens with crude attacks from outside.
If you strive for a coalition with the Greens and the Left in 2021, you have to slowly talk about an alliance strategy.
Unusual balancing act
The ranks of the
CDU
and
CSU
are pretty much in agreement that the Greens will be the main opponent in the coming federal election campaign.
The CDU chairman and possible chancellor candidates Friedrich Merz and Armin Laschet have formulated this in the past just like the CSU leader Markus Söder, who was also a candidate for chancellor.
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CDU opponents: Norbert Röttgen, Armin Laschet, Friedrich Merz
Photo: MICHAEL KAPPELER / AFP
But of course the Union will not be able to thrash Habeck and Baerbock's party to its heart's content as it used to; there is just as broad consensus on this in the sister parties if one then wants to govern together with the Greens.
It's a balancing act that the party headquarters of the CDU and CSU have never had to perform.
The main competitor does not only mean that you argue with the Greens over so-called middle-class voters in the middle, but that it is not a foregone conclusion who will be ahead in the end.
Even if the CDU and CSU have had polls of up to 40 percent for months and are clearly the strongest force.
So the question continues to be: black-green or green-black?
The Union election campaign strategists are not to be envied in view of this mixed situation.
However, they have to answer a much more important question beforehand: with which top candidates the CDU and CSU will run at all.
At this point, the Greens are not further: they also have to clarify whether they will be running for the Chancellery with Annalena Baerbock or Robert Habeck.
Icon: The mirror
