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Why the pandemic will end earlier in the US than in Europe

2020-11-26T03:25:42.476Z


Deutsche Bank estimates that mass immunization will arrive in the second quarter Dependence on AstraZeneca may weigh down the EU against the weight of Pfizer and Moderna in Washington


Europe's greater dependence than the United States on

AstraZeneca's

Covid vaccine

may result in the EU coming later to herd immunity.

This is considered by a report by

Deutsche Bank Research

, which places herd immunization in the US in the second quarter and in Europe it could be delayed to the third quarter if a lower efficacy of the British company's product is confirmed.

A smaller population and a greater weight of Pfizer and Moderna products will cause Washington to end the nightmare of the pandemic sooner.

To make these calculations, the German bank has taken into account the contracts of Washington and Brussels with the pharmaceutical industry on the supply of vaccines to curb the Covid-19 pandemic.

In addition, it collects data for the three most advanced products, since only

Pfizer / BionTech, Moderna and AstraZeneca

have presented efficacy results and they are the only ones that are expected to be on the market in the first months of the year.

The problem for European countries is that, at the moment, in the preliminary data, the vaccine from AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford is less efficient than those of Pfizer and Moderna.

Specifically, the product prevents only 62% of infections with two doses, the administration initially planned.

However, with a dose and a half, it shows an effectiveness of 90%.

The average, according to those two clinical trials, would be 70%.

Europe is much more dependent on AstraZeneca than the US

The EU has contracted a supply of 300 million doses (plus 100 optional)

to the British laboratory.

From Pfizer it has requested another 200 million (plus 100 optional) and Moderna 80 million (plus another 80 additional).

Those initial roads serve 280 million inhabitants of the 446 million total of the club of 27.

"It is almost certain that for

herd immunity in the EU it would be achieved in the summer

, even if AstraZeneca's was only 70% efficient and required two injections," the study highlights.

The financial institution estimates that Europe could catch up with the immunization rate of the United States if

Janssen

, the pharmaceutical subsidiary of the Johnson & Johnson group, offers good news.

Its candidate is another of the more advanced alternatives, but at the moment it has not published efficacy data and its distribution is expected somewhat later.

In the case of approval in the first quarter, from April to June, 80% of Europeans could already be immunized.

But it depends on the ultimate effectiveness of AstraZeneca and whether Janssen succeeds.

"If none of these conditions are met, it is likely that herd immunity in Europe will be delayed for a few months, until the third quarter," they estimate from the financial institution.

“The United States should be able to immunize the most vulnerable Americans thanks only to Moderna and Pfizer.

It doesn't even depend on AstraZeneca to achieve it.

But with a good vaccine from AstraZeneca, in addition to the highly effective Pfizer and Moderna, it is very likely that the US will have enough vaccine doses to immunize 90% of the population by mid-2021, comfortably in excess of what will be required for the herd immunity ”, is explained in the report.

And it is that with the purchases from Pfizer and Moderna they already have an important way forward to immunize the 329 million Americans.

Deutsche Bank indicates that even with just those two vaccines, President-elect

Joe Biden

can see group immunity being achieved in the second quarter.

The German bank places this level of immunization at 60% of the population, when that percentage of inhabitants has already been vaccinated and viral transmission in the community is interrupted.

Pfizer recently announced that it has completed the first phase III trial of an anti-Covid vaccine, which has an efficacy of 95%, and that it is already requesting authorization for emergency use from the US Drug Agency (FDA, en its acronym in English).

The New York company, and its German partner BioNTech, hope to begin distributing the first doses in that country in December.

In this case, the government of

Donald Trump

reached an agreement to supply 300 million vials in 2021, of which 100 million should be delivered when the product is approved.

In this case, two injections per person are required.

In the case of Moderna, the efficacy of the preliminary data is equally high, 94.5%.

For the commercial pact, the Boston company must contribute 100 million containers, plus another 400 million optional.

Although somewhat more delayed in terms, it is expected that in a few weeks it will also be available.

The lower weight of European orders, especially from Moderna, but also from Pfizer, and probably the somewhat later approval of the European Medicines Agency than of the FDA, will cause herd immunization to be delayed.

The German bank believes, in any case, that it will be reached in the second quarter, and will only be delayed if AstraZeneca fails to confirm the 90% efficiency.

"With the rate of viral transmission decreasing during the summer months, this delay in total herd immunity is unlikely to be negative," the study noted.

Deutsche Bank estimates that both in Europe and on the other side of the Atlantic, protection for frontline healthcare professionals and those over 65 (about 20% of the population) can be achieved in the first quarter (first in the US).

"The goal should be herd immunity," says the report, reflecting that most economic activity is likely to resume once vulnerable members of society are immunized, primarily the elderly.

End of the pandemic in summer

After knowing the effectiveness of the AstraZeneca vaccine this Monday, the Deutsche Bank analysis suggests that now "we are on the way for the majority of the developed world to immunize its vulnerable population to Covid in the spring and the entire population in the middle of the year" .

"Depending on the rate of distribution of the vaccine, this estimate may even improve, as some countries achieve herd immunity before summer," the report highlights.

“The news of the combined vaccines in recent weeks is an unprecedented victory for science that will lead to a much faster rate of normalization in our daily lives compared to what we would have assumed just a few weeks ago.

By spring, things should look much closer than normal, ”he adds.

Source: elparis

All news articles on 2020-11-26

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