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Dr. Martin Kulldorff: "Containment has devastating effects on public health in the short and long term"

2020-11-29T02:21:18.684Z


FIGAROVOX / GRAND ENTRETIEN - The various containment policies have had and will have catastrophic results for the public health of the citizens concerned, believes Dr. Martin Kulldorff. According to the professor at Harvard Medical School, on the contrary, a ...


Dr. Martin Kulldorff is a professor at Harvard Medical School expert in biostatistics, and epidemiologist.

He co-signed

The Great Barrington Declaration,

a text that challenges general containment policies across the world.

FIGAROVOX.

- The UK - albeit briefly - and Sweden both practiced an attempt at collective immunity and have now largely abandoned that strategy.

Why is this so?

Martin KULLDORFF.

-

Collective immunity is not a strategy, but a scientifically proven phenomenon, just like gravity.

No country has adopted a collective immunity strategy, but whatever strategy is used, all countries will eventually achieve collective immunity.

The goal should be to minimize both COVID-19 and collateral deaths until we get there.

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To do this, a targeted protection strategy can better protect the elderly and other at-risk groups, while young adults are encouraged to live almost normally to avoid the enormous collateral damage associated with confinement.

It's like a plane in the sky: whatever strategy the pilots use, gravity will cause the plane to eventually hit the ground, and the goal is not gravity but to land it. with minimal loss of life.

You advocate in the Declaration of Great Barrington 4 October what you call the "

Protection Targeted

" ( "

Focused Protection

"), a containment for the most vulnerable only.

What boxes must be checked to be considered “

high risk

”?

The Great Barrington Declaration calls for targeted protection rather than general containment.

If anyone can be infected, the risk of death is more than a thousand times higher between older and younger citizens, and for children, COVID-19 is much less dangerous than the annual flu.

The key is therefore to better protect the over 60s and especially those over 70.

Better protection for the elderly cannot wait until a vaccine is readily available

For example, rather than being locked in, nursing home residents need to be better protected through frequent testing of staff and visitors and less staff turnover.

For retirees, groceries can be delivered, and if they cannot meet their friends and relatives outside, their visitors should be tested.

If people over 60 cannot work from home, we could offer them a short sabbatical year at the height of the transmission, using either retirement or disability funds.

In addition, by keeping university students and young adults at work, we avoid having them move with older relatives, which is increasing the number of multigenerational households right now.

Additional and more detailed public health recommendations are provided on the Great Barrington Declaration FAQ page.

With a vaccine we will have an additional tool to protect vulnerable people, but better protection for the elderly cannot wait until it is readily available.

In the Great Barrington statement, you say that "

current policies of containment are producing devastating effects on public health in the short and long term

".

What are the worst consequences measured so far?

As a scientist in charge of public health, I can only be sorry for the enormous collateral damage that the closure strategy has caused on other health areas.

Examples include collapsing childhood immunization rates, worsening cardiovascular disease, decreasing cancer screening, and deteriorating mental health.

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In developing countries, thousands of children have starved to death due to lockdown.

A more complete list can be found at www.collateralglobal.org.

Among Americans aged 26 to 44, only 4% of total deaths in 2020 were due to COVID-19.

At the same time, there was an excess mortality of 26% compared to previous years.

This means that for every COVID-19 death in the age range, there are more than five other deaths due to collateral damage from the lockdown strategy.

This is all tragic.

You imply in the Great Barrington Declaration that we could possibly achieve herd immunity without mass vaccination.

What makes you think this and how long would it take for most western countries?

Herd immunity can be achieved by natural infections, by a vaccine or by a combination of the two.

My Harvard colleague Professor Marc Lipsitch thinks some places may have already achieved collective immunity.

But if we had pursued a targeted protection strategy from the start, this pandemic would already be over, with fewer casualties.

The number of re-infections with COVID-19 is negligible, so we know there is strong immunity, as is the case with other coronaviruses

How long it will take to get there depends on what strategy we use in the future, as well as the effectiveness and timing of the vaccines.

Unfortunately, the longer the pandemic is prolonged by various containment measures, the more difficult it is for the elderly at high risk to protect themselves.

There are major scientific differences regarding the length of time an infected person remains immune to the virus, with estimates varying between six months and several weeks ... Doesn't that pose a problem for herd immunity?

If so, it would be a problem for both natural infections and vaccines, but these are not science-based estimates.

The number of re-infections with COVID-19 is negligible, so we know there is strong immunity, as there is with other coronaviruses.

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What we don't know yet is if the immunity is lifelong and what the degree of cross-immunity is with other coronaviruses.

There is also considerable disagreement over the exact percentage of people infected with the virus in a country for herd immunity to be achieved.

What percentage do you estimate it?

It is impossible to know, and no respectable epidemiologist would give a precise figure.

It also depends on the pandemic strategy used.

The Great Barrington Declaration received an overwhelmingly positive response from many fellow scientists and medical professionals around the world.

If young people with extensive professional and social networks are infected, then the percentage is much lower than if older and reclusive people are infected.

It also varies geographically, with a higher percentage needed in urban areas compared to rural areas.

You released this Great Barrington statement almost two months ago.

What has been the reaction of medical experts, politicians and the general public?

There has been an overwhelmingly positive response from many fellow scientists and medical professionals around the world.

These are people who see the negative consequences of the containment strategy on a daily basis.

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The public also reacted very positively.

In contrast, politicians and the media in the English-speaking world have reacted rather negatively, although the criticisms have been rather superficial and unfounded on substance.

Source: lefigaro

All news articles on 2020-11-29

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