So that corona infections and deaths do not get completely out of control, Germany is in a tough lockdown until January.
But slowly the question of the results arises.
During the
tough December lockdown
*, it became quiet in Germany.
Statisticians from the LMU Munich analyze the infection process in order to check the effect of the restrictions.
In terms of
deaths
in particular
, they paint a bleak picture for the coming weeks.
Munich -
Germany
has shut down: in mid-December the country went from a light to a comparatively
hard lockdown
.
Gastronomy, retail and cosmetic studios as well as hairdressers are closed, there are strict contact and exit restrictions.
In view of the
infection
, this was probably inevitable.
But do the strict measures also have the desired effect?
A team of statisticians from the
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich
(LMU) regularly analyzes the current figures using specially developed methods - and now comes to rather worrying conclusions.
The preliminary conclusion on the
hard lockdown
: It is not yet possible to say whether it is having an
effect
.
The incubation period and reporting delays make a realistic assessment of the development after December 8th impossible, according to a report by the scientists.
Regarding the Lockdown light from November, the scientists working with Professors Göran Kauermann and Helmut Küchenhoff can say that after an interim reduction in the number of cases
,
there was a renewed increase
from November 21 to December 8
.
https://t.co/BRpeMuRkWy with
3. Current analyzes on the course of the pandemic: There is evidence of an increase in the number of infections at the end of November.
It is still too early to assess the impact of the tightened lockdown.
Joint work with @m_hoehle @adiBender pic.twitter.com/ua4sXkXdPB
- Helmut Küchenhoff (@HKuechenhoff) December 23, 2020
Does the corona lockdown work in Germany?
One value is particularly problematic
Another number worries the researchers:
deaths
.
Because even if the measures should have an effect, it is already too late for many people.
The statisticians have calculated that of all people who were infected in the 51st calendar
week
(14-20 December), around
6,500
will die of the disease
in the coming weeks
.
That is an average of around
900 people a day
.
There can be up to six weeks between infection and death.
Even if the number of cases stagnates, it will take some time before the number of deaths also falls again.
The
state of Saxony
is currently particularly affected by this development
.
According to LMU researchers, up to
60 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants
can be expected there.
Older people are particularly affected.
In addition to Saxony, the situation is also worsening in other federal states.
In
Thuringia, Brandenburg
and also
Saxony-Anhalt
, deaths have increased exponentially in recent weeks.
It is expected that Thuringia and Brandenburg will even overtake Saxony in terms of death rates per 100,000 inhabitants.
According to the scientists, the three federal states thus have "an approximately
three-fold higher mortality rate
than most of the other federal states".
Corona lockdown in all federal states: There are particularly many deaths in Saxony
The rising number of deaths can apparently be explained by a drastic increase in infections among those
over the age of 80
.
The Munich scientists have calculated that the number of new infections in this age group has been growing continuously in almost all federal states since September.
On the other hand, this value drops or at least flattens out for younger people.
However, older people die more often as a result of
Covid 19 disease
*.
Exceptions to this trend are the four federal states mentioned above.
There the incidence is increasing unabated in all age groups.
Although the development of the number of deaths differs greatly from region to region, according to the analysis all have one thing in common: “In all countries, an
exponential increase in deaths
in the oldest population group has been recorded
from mid-September to the end of October and which continues today
.
Analogous to the
new infections
*
The strongest growth can also be observed here in Saxony. ”The all-clear looks different.
(mam) * Merkur.de is part of the Ippen-Digital network
List of rubric lists: © Sebastian Kahnert / dpa-Zentralbild / dpa