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The assault on the Capitol
Biden has promised to unite America, but a Trump trial could achieve the opposite result
The trial will divert attention from the struggle the new president has to wage in the face of the Corona crises and the plans he wants to advance.
In addition, legal constraints and difficult dilemmas will determine Trump's fate - and the future of the Republican Party and American society.
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Donald Trump
Joe Biden
United States
Eitan Gilboa
Saturday, January 16, 2021, 3:20 p.m.
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In the video: Trump condemns the attack on the Capitol, in parallel with the overthrow (Photo: Reuters)
The House of Representatives' decision to oust outgoing President Donald Trump is just one step in the process.
This is a decision to indict Trump for abusing his powers and violating the constitution.
The House of Representatives should file the lawsuit in the Senate that serves as a court and determines whether to accept it or win the president.
Conviction requires a two-thirds majority of senators, 67 out of a hundred.
About a year ago, the House of Representatives decided to file an indictment against Trump, but the Senate acquitted him.
The process of ousting a president is very rare, and in all of American history it has been activated only three times including that of Trump.
He will be the first president in history to be ousted twice and during one term.
The next step in the current process is unusual and complex because there is only about a week left until the end of Trump's term and the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden.
The next steps depend on a combination of legal and political considerations among Democrats and Republicans alike, with an emphasis on the political.
First, it is not possible to be satisfied with just the indictment of the House of Representatives.
This is similar to filing an indictment against a person without conducting a trial and determining whether he is guilty or entitled.
Second, the Senate is on leave until January 19, 2021, that is, until one day before Biden is sworn in and the change of government takes place.
Although there is a rule established in 2004 following the terrorist attacks of 9/11, according to which the Senate can be convened in an emergency if the two party leaders agree to do so.
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Trump went down in history and was ousted twice by the House of Representatives.
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Will he be able to compete in 2024?
Trump (Photo: AP)
It is unclear if there will be 17 Republican senators willing to join the Democrats to secure the required two-thirds majority to convict Trump in the Senate.
Senate Democrat leader Chuck Schumer contacted Republican leader Mitch McConnell, who said it was a state of emergency and asked to immediately convene the Senate and conduct a lightning trial.
However, McConnell refused on the grounds that the dismissal process is rare and there will be no time to hear the parties' claims fairly.
He wants the Senate to set the trial on January 19 and begin it the next day, exactly at the time of the change of government.
That is, the Senate trial can only begin after Trump leaves the White House.
This matter is in legal dispute.
Some constitutional experts argue that the founding fathers intended the process of dismissal and trial only for those who hold office and commit serious offenses, to determine whether to remove him from office or win him and allow him to continue in office.
In their opinion, a trial in the Senate should not be conducted for someone who has completed his term and is a private citizen.
Other experts argue that the process of ousting Trump in the Senate should be continued despite the end of his term, because it should be determined whether he is guilty or not, and in case convicted he should be prevented from running for president again in the 2024 election.
Conviction in the ordinary process results in the termination of the president's term.
That's his punishment.
In the present case, such a punishment has no meaning because Trump will already end his term.
But the Senate can, by a simple majority vote, determine that the punishment will be to prevent Trump from running for president.
Trump has announced he will consider another confrontation in 2024.
If the Senate decides to hold a trial against Trump after his retirement, it is very possible that the matter will go to the Supreme Court, which is the only authorized body to interpret the constitution.
There is a six-to-three majority in favor of the Conservatives.
But conducting a trial for Trump depends largely on political considerations.
For the trial to begin at all, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi must pass the indictment to the Senate, detail the transfer clause and appoint prosecutors from among the House members. On the one hand, Democrats want to run the trial as a warning to a future president similar to Trump's. prevent him from running in the elections in 2024 and split and may dismantle the Republican party, which already has serious differences of opinion between supporters Trump and his opponents.
On the other hand, the trial began immediately after the Biden white house and persistence over at least several weeks, would divert attention from the struggle he has to run in front of the crisis Corona and the plans and reforms he wants to promote
In addition, Biden has promised to reduce polarization in American society and a noisy Senate lawsuit could achieve the opposite result. To Democrats to secure the required two-thirds majority to convict Trump in the Senate.Plusi hinted that in light of all this she may file the indictment in the Senate in just a few months.
The sentence may divert attention from its agenda.
Biden (Photo: AP)
The key to continuing the process is also McConnell, the veteran Republican leader in the Senate. He thinks that because of Trump's refusal to recognize the election results and his responsibility for the attack on the Congress building he should be ousted. In protest of the riot in Congress, his wife, Elaine Chow, resigned from her position as transportation minister in Trump's cabinet. McConnell is also angry with Trump for his interference in the second-round election in Georgia resulting in the Democrats' victory, the loss of Republican control of the Senate and thus also the loss of his position as the Republican majority leader in the Senate.
But McConnell is also thinking about the future of the Republican Party. The dilemma is whether ousting Trump in the Senate will be an opportunity to get rid of him and save the Republican Party from itself, or vice versa, that it will crush the party and split it into two camps: Trump supporters and opponents, who will constantly fight each other. 2024 Trial and dismissal in the Senate could also make Trump a sympathetic victim in the eyes of his supporters and thus intensify the controversy within the Republican Party.
Two personalities, Pelosi and McConnell, political interests and battles, toxic sediments, legal constraints and difficult dilemmas will determine not only the personal fate of Trump but also the future of American society and the Republican Party.
Prof. Eitan Gilboa is an expert on the United States and a senior researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University.
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