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Do not rush to prepare polling stations: Hamas wants to take over and Abu Mazen took a dangerous gamble

The four difficult years of the Trump administration and the spirits of peace in the region have led the 85-year-old leader to signal to Baiden and declare democratic elections.

But with the Koruna hurting his party and Hamas happy to increase its power in the West Bank, the move may prove to be a grave mistake.

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• the Palestinian Authority

• Abu Mazen

• Hamas

Gadi Hitman

Sunday, 17 January 2021, 07:44 Updated: 16:50

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In the video: Abu Mazen's speech at the UN (Photo: Reuters, Edited by: Assaf Drori)

Anyone who has been looking, closely or remotely, at the Palestinian arena since June 2007, sees a split geopolitical system.

Gaza is controlled by Hamas, a national religious movement that seeks to take over the entire Palestinian political system on the way to the liberation of Palestine.

In Ramallah, Abu Mazen has been in charge of the Palestinian Authority since January 2005. In the background, needless to say, from February 2007 (Mecca agreement) to October 2017 (Al-Shati agreement), the Palestinian Authority, built on Fatah and Hamas members, tried to resolve the crisis between them. Without success.

On several occasions when the parties discussed a possible solution, the issue of elections in the Palestinian system arose for both the Legislative Council and the presidency.

In each case, they have seized it, despite obstacles we can scarcely imagine. "

These are two political forces fighting for hegemony in the political system that will allow them to establish in the territories of the future Palestinian state (if there is one) community life based on a different worldview: one secular and the other religious.

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New hope in Ramallah.

Abu Mazen and chairman of the election commission with the order to hold elections in the PA, this weekend (Photo: Reuters)

So what motivates a person approaching his 86th birthday and enjoying exclusive rule in Judea and Samaria (with Israeli support mainly due to the fact that he opposes terrorism and cooperates with it on the security level) to issue a presidential order on holding elections?

The last four years have been difficult for Abu Mazen in the regional and international arena.

The Trump administration, Israel's friendliest ever, has made several moves that have hurt Palestinians: relocating US embassies to Jerusalem, closing PLO offices in Washington and drastically reducing aid to UNRWA (the relief and employment agency) that treats Palestinian refugees scattered in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Jordan And the Gaza Strip.

In addition, the winds of regional peace, blowing hard over the Muqata in Ramallah, did not add to the happiness of Abu Mazen and his men.

The glass ceiling that broke through Egypt in 1979 is now shattering in a thunderous voice, proving that the (Palestinian? Not only) concept has collapsed: it is not necessary to solve the Palestinian problem so that Arab states (at least some) recognize Israel, sign peace agreements with it and normalize relations with it.

Manage the strip without any opposition.

Hamas fighters during military exercise in Gaza (Photo: Reuters)

Abu Mazen saw, digested and remained silent.

He is now signaling to the Biden administration to be sworn in on Wednesday and to the international and regional system that the Palestinians are alive and interested in mentioning that their problem has not yet been resolved.

There was a sigh of relief in the territories when it became clear that Trump would not return for a second term in the White House.

There is now new hope in Ramallah that the Americans will return to being a neutral mediator in the conflict.

Announcing democratic, transparent, clean elections is a worthy move against Washington.

Jibril Rajoub, an associate of Abu Mazen and secretary general of the Fatah Central Committee, has already made it clear that the goal is to end Palestinian domestic violence and create a democratic society built on the foundations of public transparency. Exactly what America loves.

And yet it is worth remembering. : The last year in the Palestinian arena has been marked by the Corona epidemic, and the fact that the PA has imposed health closures has led to a reduction in political activity in universities, cafes and branches of political organizations.

Internal power struggles within Fatah. Muhammad Dahlan (Photo: AP)

All this certainly did not improve the condition of Fatah territory and if you consider the fact that Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the organization, failed to restore its deployment since 2005 - then decided to go for elections is too dangerous gamble.

Keep in mind also the internal power struggles Inside Fatah between the Abu Mazen camp and Dahlan supporters.

In a recent survey published by the Nablus Research Center led by Khalil Shakaki (one of the top pollsters in the Occupied Territories), two-thirds of respondents expressed a desire for Abbas to resign after deciding to resume security coordination with Israel.

Hamas has no real reason to oppose the election

A word about Hamas: The movement has already announced that it is ready for a general election.

It has no real reason to oppose, it has been running the Strip since June 2007 and has no opposition there challenging its rule.

In the case of elections, it can only benefit from increasing its power in the West Bank as well.

In the past, when both sides agreed on a general election, the moves to prepare them got stuck around technical aspects such as the powers of the Central Election Commission (headed by Hanna Nasser, a man of Abu Mazen) and its composition.

This is likely to be the case this time as well, and not because of the basic, long and deep mistrust that exists between Abu Mazen and his people and Hamas.

And it is impossible without a word about the Israeli angle.

The last few months have been marked by a media celebration around the regional peace agreements and few have paid attention to the fact that the Palestinian problem remains mainly an Israeli problem (not emirate; not Bahrain; not Sudanese; not Moroccan).

A vote in East Jerusalem will flood legal and political issues.

Shuafat refugee camp (Photo: Reuters)

General elections in the territories require elections for the Palestinians in East Jerusalem as well, and here, of course, are legal and political issues of Israeli sovereignty in the east of the city. There is no certainty or certainty that an Israeli government will agree to such a move at this time and it is likely that it will encounter a demand from the Biden government to allow it, if the Palestinian election process progresses.

But beyond that, in a scenario in which Hamas wins (as happened in 2006), Israel will be required to recalculate a course - political and security. Among the questions that will come up for discussion and will require a new policy: Should Abu Mazen and the PLO be given up as partners after the Palestinian public chose the national-religious current led by Hamas? Decide whether to militarily defeat Hamas? Should we go with Hamas for some political settlement?

So what's the bottom line you ask? Abu Mazen hopes that the United States will smile at him thanks to this move as well. When the time comes, if necessary, he will text him and blame Hamas. Hamas, which has an organizational array of branches and charities in the territories, will be happy to hold general elections in order to try to advance its interests. And Israel? She will probably pray that the Palestinian internal conflict continues. The game has just begun. Do not rush to place ballots.

Dr. Gadi Hitman is a lecturer at Ariel University and an expert in the Palestinian arena

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