The devastating effect of the corona mutation: Merkel makes a bad incidence prognosis - experts agree with her

They are already rampant in Great Britain and South Africa - now the new corona mutations have also arrived in Germany.

Merkel outlines a bad scenario for Easter - experts agree.

• Chancellor Angela Merkel

  expects the

  corona incidence to

  explode by Easter

  .

• This

  dire prognosis

  could become a really bitter reality, experts have now confirmed.

• The threat posed by the

  coronavirus

  mutations

  from Great Britain and South Africa appears to be enormous.

Berlin - The corona mutation, known as B.1.1.7, is currently keeping scientists and politicians in suspense.

After the mutation initially occurred mainly in Great Britain, it now threatens to determine the infection rate in continental Europe.

Chancellor Angela Merkel

is therefore more than concerned.

"If we do not manage to stop this British virus, we will have

a tenfold incidence

by

Easter,

" the

Chancellor

said

recently.

A tenfold increase in the incidence would correspond to an incidence of around 3000 in some counties, which are currently 300.

The devastating effect the new

virus mutation "B.1.1.7."

Could have can already be seen in the current situation in

Great Britain

.

Up to

60,000 new infections

, the country recorded daily, with the number of in

hospitals

trained

Covid-19 sufferers

is currently much higher than their previous peak in the first wave in the spring of 2020. In the capital

London

that lies

7-day incidence

now at over 1000. One in 30 residents currently has

Covid-19

, Mayor

Sadiq Khan

recently reported on the "absolute crisis situation" - the virus was "out of control" and the clinics were on the verge of collapse.

The

mutation is also on the advance

in neighboring

Ireland

, where the number of cases has recently increased tenfold.

In

Germany

,

the British mutation has been dealt with “occasionally”

in

North Rhine-Westphalia, Saxony, Bavaria

and

Baden-Württemberg,

among others

.

In addition,

a

mutation from South Africa was

detected

on Tuesday in

North Rhine-Westphalia

, which is also said to be more infectious than the previous variant.

Although they are both considered to be potentially more contagious, they are not necessarily the motor for

more severe disease processes.

Also the

vaccines

currently in use

are supposed to be effective against them.

What worries experts, however, is that they will

cause the number of infections to

rise rapidly

and thus

completely overload

the

health system

.

Virus mutation from Great Britain could hit Germany hard at Easter

Although the chief virologist of the

Berlin Charité, Christian Drosten,

is not yet completely

convinced

of the stronger

assertiveness of the virus

, he considers the data coming from

Great Britain and South Africa

to be "astonishing": Instead of an R-factor of one, it could new mutation have an R-factor of 1.5.

Drosten,

for

example, pleads

not to sit and watch as they continue to spread and the intensive care units fill up rapidly.

In the

NDR podcast he

explained: "If it should be the case that the ratios are 1.5 to 1, that is, from new virus to old virus, then we have a real

problem

." Then Germany would have to repeat the current measures resharpen, so

Drosten

.

+

Christian Drosten considers a subsequent tightening of the Corona resolutions to be sensible if the virus mutation turns out to be as infectious as assumed.

(Archive image)

© Christophe Gateau / dpa / Picture Alliance

But while the further tightening of the measures in the fight against the

coronavirus pandemic is still being

discussed, one wonders how likely the

chancellor's shocking bill

really is.

The

statistician Katherina Schüller

examined the possible effects of the far more contagious corona mutation on the infection process in Germany

for

focus.de

.

“We currently have an R-value of about 1.1 and a 7-day incidence of 164;

the new

virus variant is 40 to 70 percent more contagious

than the previously known form.

These are the central input variables for the model, ”explained

Schüller.

The proportion of B.1.1.7 infections among general corona infections in Germany is also decisive for a prognosis.

However, this can only be estimated.

Corona mutation in Germany: Merkel's prognosis of a tenfold incidence value by April possible

With these limiting factors,

Schüller's

extrapolation

comes

to an incidence value of between

500 and 3500

at Easter, depending on the model

.

The mean value taken from this would then be 1500 to 2000. That would roughly correspond to the

tenfold increase in the current incidence

value

feared

by

Angela Merkel

.

RKI: “Total lockdown” from February, apparently already under discussion

The warnings of the experts do not go unheeded by the politicians.

For example, the

Green

boss Annalena Baerbock

already called on Monday for an

expansion of the home office models

,

state-funded FFP2 masks

and the approval of rapid tests for self-application.

“We have to work together to ensure that the numbers don't explode and the hospitals don't collapse,” she said.

In addition, not a single day should be lost while vaccinating.

More than 26,000 new #Corona infections and many still have to go to work in the open-plan office, although it could be different.

In this phase of the pandemic, people should be allowed to work in the #home office wherever possible.

Clear statements from the federal government are needed here.

(1/2)

- Annalena Baerbock (@ABaerbock) January 7, 2021

Both the

Robert Koch Institute (RKI)

and Merkel themselves are currently discussing further tightening.

The Chancellor has brought the meeting with the Prime Minister on Friday

forward to

January 19th

.

The 

government spokesman Steffen Seibert also

 said there was a need to further reduce contacts.

For example, the federal and state governments could

decide on

a

“total lockdown”

next Tuesday

in which not only shops, cultural sites, daycare centers and schools remain closed, but also all-day curfews

could be enacted.

"We should ask ourselves whether a complete lockdown of two to three weeks is ultimately better than an endless hanging game," said

Union parliamentary deputy Thorsten Frei to

the 

mirror

, while

Saxony's Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer also called

for a "very hard lockdown of two to three Weeks ”pleaded.

With the exception of visits to the doctor, shopping or emergencies, you should

then no longer leave your own apartment

in

Germany

and meet at most one person outside the household.

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