Laurent Herblay has been author of the “free gaullist” blog since 2007, former spokesperson for Debout la République and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan for the 2012 presidential election.
The government's inconsistent trial is legitimate.
Macron let the Chinese take over Alstom, Alcatel, Technip and Toulouse airport, was preparing to sell ADP and is leading negotiations aimed at further dismantling EDF.
Why should he hinder the takeover of Carrefour, when the shareholders of the French distributor agree?
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This seems all the more incoherent given that Macron goes around the investors to ask them to choose France, in English in the text, that we have signed the CETA with Canada and that Airbus was able to buy a program from Bombardier (at relief from the latter).
As Gaëtan de Capèle notes in one of Le Figaro, it is a purely political logic which presided over this choice: to let it happen was too risky electorally 15 months before the presidential election, and while the results of previous operations are so unflattering.
Car Carrefour is not a company like any other.
And it is not because "
the day when there is no more pasta and rice on the shelves, how do you do it?"
», As Bruno Le Maire said incongruously.
The takeover of Carrefour in no way threatened the supply of customers on a competitive market in which the group only holds 20%.
Also, the new owner had no interest in creating such problems.
It is difficult to see in this buyout the slightest interest for France
On the other hand, we can find a logic of economic sovereignty to oppose this takeover.
Carrefour is the third company in the CAC40 by turnover (more than 80 billion euros), and the second for that realized in France.
It is not illegitimate for the government to consider seizing the legal provisions put in place in 2005, especially since they were extended to food distribution by this same government in 2019.
And it is difficult to see in this redemption the slightest interest for France.
In such operations, the decision-making centers are always partly transferred from who is bought to who is buying.
It is illusory to believe that there would have been no consequences on employment in France.
Such a buyout has a cost and it must be profitable, especially since Couche Tard is more profitable than Carrefour and would have required a convergence of the profitability of its subsidiary, at the request of its shareholders ...
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And this race for profitability would have been very dangerous for Carrefour, a group that has gone from 30 to 20% of the French market in twenty years for having favored short-term profitability which penalized its attractiveness for its customers.
Indeed, the French market is very atypical, which is probably poorly understood across the Atlantic, due to unlisted independent distributors more aggressive on prices than Carrefour.
Clearly, such an operation could have been extremely destructive for the two distributors.
First of all, it should be remembered that large operations of this nature generally penalize the activity of predators and prey, so much they monopolize the attention of their leaders, to the detriment of the management of current affairs.
Many international mergers or takeovers have ended in fiasco, such as Daimler-Chrysler.
We are in a pure speculative interest, enabled by the level differential between European and North American markets
There was a high probability that the increased pressure on profitability exerted on Carrefour would have ended up penalizing the business of the French distributor, and that the North American shareholders of Couche Tard would eventually tire of the lower profitability of their subsidiary, then pushing for a resale of the French entity… In short, we were in a case where it was probable that one plus one would not even have made two, but could, in fine, destabilize the two parties.
But of this, current Carrefour shareholders did not care, seeing only the opportunity to sell some or all of their positions at a good price against the share price for almost four years.
For once, their short-term interest was completely decorrelated from the medium-term interest of Carrefour, Couche Tard or France.
We are in a pure speculative interest, enabled by the level differential between European markets and North American markets.
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It should be remembered here that the indices across the Atlantic are more than double before the 2008 crash, when the European indices, and in particular in France, remain below their peak at the time.
It is because there is an extravagant bubble that Couche Tard can consider such an operation (being significantly smaller than Carrefour) and offer a price that satisfies current Carrefour shareholders.
But the interests of a company are not measured solely by the interests of its current shareholders.
And this is all the more legitimate for a company like Carrefour, which was also built on opening authorizations given by the public authorities.
We are in a very regulated activity, where the State has allowed Carrefour to develop, and does not allow fierce competition.
Bruno Le Maire would benefit from stressing the importance of Carrefour in France and the many failures of such mergers
This justifies a say on the takeover of the third largest company in the country, especially when this takeover is allowed by the North American financial bubble, and only serves the interests of shareholders, while presenting very high risks for the company. Crossroads.
The last twenty years have too often shown that these giant international mergers lead to a failure with serious consequences for the prey, which often ends up sold cut to size, as we see with Alstom.
Even if there is only a political calculation, this veto is positive.
Bruno Le Maire would benefit from stressing the importance of Carrefour in France and the many failures of such mergers, rather than talking about the risks of supplying pasta and rice.
If Carrefour shareholders lose out in the short term, the distributor's current results indicate that they could quickly find their way around.
And above all, France, Carrefour and Couche Tard will be spared, an operation whose fiasco was probable.
