In Germany, many hope for a similarly low number of corona cases in the summer as last year.
Virologist Christian Drosten, on the other hand, has a "bad fear" for this time of year.
Many people in Germany hope that the number of new infections with the corona virus will drop drastically again in summer.
Christian Drosten, on the other hand, has a "bad fear" of all things for the warm season.
The virologist even speaks of 100,000 new infections per day in the worst case.
Berlin - The current trend in
corona numbers in Germany
gives cautious reason for hope.
It seems that the
lockdown measures
are slowly paying off a little.
In particular, the vaccination has started and the warmer weather from spring onwards makes many people hopeful that the numbers will continue to decline.
So everything will be "normal" again from spring?
After all, the number of new infections in summer 2020 was also relatively low.
Christian Drosten
from the Berlin Charité slows down the euphoria.
The virologist, who also belonged to the panel of experts who advised Prime Minister and Chancellor Angela Merkel before their meeting on Tuesday, is looking forward to the warmer season
with great concern
.
Corona in Germany: 100,000 cases per day in summer?
Christian Drosten has "bad fears"
In an interview with
Der Spiegel
, Drosten spoke about the so-called
"Zero Covid Strategy"
.
This provides for the nine infections to be reduced to zero if possible.
For Drosten this would be an absolutely worthwhile goal.
“Mainly because I have serious fears about what will otherwise happen in spring and summer,” he says.
His great concern also has
to do
with the
vaccination campaign
.
Drosten's fear: As soon as a large part of the elderly and the risk group are vaccinated, "there will be enormous economic, social, political and perhaps also legal pressure to end the corona measures".
Then, within a very short time, significantly more people would be infected with the virus than you can currently imagine, he says.
"Then we no longer have case numbers of 20,000 or 30,000, but in the worst case 100,000 per day," he paints a real
horror scenario
, as also
reported by
wa.de.
In this case, it would be primarily younger people who are known to be less likely to get seriously ill with the virus.
Full intensive care units
and a high death rate would still be inevitable.
"We could cushion this scenario a little if we now push the numbers very low," explains Drosten.
Christian Drosten sees a "unique opportunity" to limit virus mutation in Germany
So no hope of lower case numbers from the summer onwards, like last year?
“I don't think so,” says Drosten in the
Spiegel
interview.
He thinks the
summer
was so mild last year because the number of infections with the corona virus in Germany had remained
below a critical threshold
in the previous spring
.
In the meantime this is no longer the case.
"I'm afraid it will now be more like Spain, where the number of cases rose again quickly in the summer after the lockdown was over, although it was very hot," said Drosten.
It is therefore crucial for the virologist that the
R value is
further reduced.
It is a good thing that the value in Germany is now below 1 again.
Drosten hopes, however, that the
tightening of the lockdown
that was decided on Tuesday could result
in a value below 0.7.
Then there would not only be hope for easing.
This
would also give you a head start
in the fight against the spread of the dangerous
corona mutation B.1.1.7
, which has now arrived in Germany.
“I believe that now there is still a unique opportunity to prevent the spread of this variant in our country or at least to slow it down considerably,” says Drosten, encouraging him on this point.
Christian Drosten about new lockdown measures: criticism of home office regulation
It remains to be seen whether the tightening will be enough.
For Drosten is certainly clear that the point
home office
"certainly more" could have done.
He would also like to see greater support for socially disadvantaged groups.
According to Drosten, the virus often spreads faster there, as many people sometimes live in cramped conditions or work in jobs in which home office cannot be easily implemented.
"I think there is still a lot that can be done there," says the virologist.
(han)
List of rubric lists: © xim.gs/imago-images