Virologist Drosten has "bad fears" for the summer of 2021 - clear difference to 2020 possible

In Germany, many hope for a similarly low number of corona cases in the summer as last year.

Virologist Christian Drosten, on the other hand, has a "bad fear" for this time of year.

• Many people in Germany hope that the number of new infections with the corona virus will drop drastically again in summer.

• Christian Drosten, on the other hand, has a "bad fear" of all things for the warm season.

• The virologist even speaks of 100,000 new infections per day in the worst case.

Berlin - The current trend in

corona numbers in Germany

gives cautious reason for hope.

It seems that the

lockdown measures

are slowly paying off a little.

In particular, the vaccination has started and the warmer weather from spring onwards makes many people hopeful that the numbers will continue to decline.

So everything will be "normal" again from spring?

After all, the number of new infections in summer 2020 was also relatively low.

Christian Drosten

from the Berlin Charité slows down the euphoria.

The virologist, who also belonged to the panel of experts who advised Prime Minister and Chancellor Angela Merkel before their meeting on Tuesday, is looking forward to the warmer season

with great concern

.

Corona in Germany: 100,000 cases per day in summer?

Christian Drosten has "bad fears"

In an interview with

Der Spiegel

, Drosten spoke about the so-called

"Zero Covid Strategy"

.

This provides for the nine infections to be reduced to zero if possible.

For Drosten this would be an absolutely worthwhile goal.

“Mainly because I have serious fears about what will otherwise happen in spring and summer,” he says.

His great concern also has

to do

with the

vaccination campaign

.

Drosten's fear: As soon as a large part of the elderly and the risk group are vaccinated, "there will be enormous economic, social, political and perhaps also legal pressure to end the corona measures".

Then, within a very short time, significantly more people would be infected with the virus than you can currently imagine, he says.

"Then we no longer have case numbers of 20,000 or 30,000, but in the worst case 100,000 per day," he paints a real

horror scenario

, as also

reported by

wa.de.

In this case, it would be primarily younger people who are known to be less likely to get seriously ill with the virus.

Full intensive care units

and a high death rate would still be inevitable.

"We could cushion this scenario a little if we now push the numbers very low," explains Drosten.

Christian Drosten sees a "unique opportunity" to limit virus mutation in Germany

So no hope of lower case numbers from the summer onwards, like last year?

“I don't think so,” says Drosten in the

Spiegel

interview.

He thinks the

summer

was so mild last year because the number of infections with the corona virus in Germany had remained

below a critical threshold

in the previous spring

.

In the meantime this is no longer the case.

"I'm afraid it will now be more like Spain, where the number of cases rose again quickly in the summer after the lockdown was over, although it was very hot," said Drosten.

It is therefore crucial for the virologist that the

R value is

further reduced.

It is a good thing that the value in Germany is now below 1 again.

Drosten hopes, however, that the

tightening of the lockdown

that was decided on Tuesday could result

in a value below 0.7.

Then there would not only be hope for easing.

This

would also give you a head start

in the fight against the spread of the dangerous

corona mutation B.1.1.7

, which has now arrived in Germany.

“I believe that now there is still a unique opportunity to prevent the spread of this variant in our country or at least to slow it down considerably,” says Drosten, encouraging him on this point.

Christian Drosten about new lockdown measures: criticism of home office regulation

It remains to be seen whether the tightening will be enough.

For Drosten is certainly clear that the point

home office

"certainly more" could have done.

He would also like to see greater support for socially disadvantaged groups.

According to Drosten, the virus often spreads faster there, as many people sometimes live in cramped conditions or work in jobs in which home office cannot be easily implemented.

"I think there is still a lot that can be done there," says the virologist.

(han)

List of rubric lists: © xim.gs/imago-images