And three.
After the curfew, the return of confinement.
The moment of truth is approaching for the device in force for a little over a week.
During the next Health Defense Council, scheduled for Wednesday morning at the Élysée Palace, the executive will assess whether the current restrictions are indeed sufficient or not to contain the progression of the epidemic.
The figures provide the beginning of an answer, unfortunately not very encouraging.
With more than 20,000 contaminations per day,
"or 1000 per hour"
, Matignon point, France is experiencing a
"high plateau"
.
At the end of the week, the Prime Minister, Jean Castex, awaited the update of the penetration rates of the variants of the virus among the positive tests, a key data in the decision-making.
“The impact of the English variant in testing will matter.
And we know that it can change very quickly
, says a close friend of the head of government.
Between no confinement and confinement, it is the confinement that is most likely. "
Read also:
Covid-19: is a re-containment inevitable?
For several days, power has been preparing minds anyway for the imminence of a third confinement.
The French seem to have internalized it.
Scientists are pushing.
"It will probably be necessary to go towards containment"
, admitted the president of the Scientific Council, Jean-François Delfraissy, Sunday evening on BFMTV.
According to him, the English variant, which would be responsible for 7% to 9% of contaminations in certain regions,
"completely changes the situation"
.
“If the variants start to spread everywhere, then we will take additional measures, obviously,
warned the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, in
Le Parisien
.
And that's called containment. ”
"There is a very strong concern, and the will to take the necessary decisions",
indicated the government spokesman Gabriel Attal, on France 3
.
“The French are making enormous efforts.
Caregivers have been working for months at the service of the French.
We owe them to be consistent ”
in the decisions and in the calendar
,
supports the entourage of the president.
If
"nothing is done to know if we must move to a complementary stage of measures"
, insists Matignon modestly, all the signals seem to converge towards a reconfinement of the country, while the milestone of one million French vaccinated was crossed on Saturday .
Several scenarios
It remains to be decided as to the degree of confinement.
After March and November, what might February's look like?
The executive is working on several scenarios.
"We are more on a November format, with schools open and shops closed,"
believes a member of the government.
The Minister of National Education, Jean-Michel Blanquer, is campaigning so that students can continue to go to school
.
"I prefer the terms that prevailed in November, with open establishments, especially as we see a posteriori that our strategy has worked,"
he pleaded in
Le Journal du dimanche
.
"The President and the Prime Minister are in the idea that it is necessary to preserve the school as much as possible",
underlines a close relative of Jean Castex.
The aid system to support the possible closure of establishments and businesses will have to be reviewed once again.
Matignon blocked Thursday afternoon in the Prime Minister's agenda for a potential press conference devoted to the health situation.
If containment were to take place this week, the president could himself announce it to the French, as on March 16 and October 28.
"The president was always there when it was necessary to take difficult measures and explain them to the French,"
said Gabriel Attal.
Read also:
Covid-19: more contagious, the English virus would also be more deadly
On Monday, Jean Castex and Olivier Véran will inaugurate the new premises of the Ile-de-France regional health agency, where an alert and tracing system has been set up to better detect variants. The Prime Minister's trip to city policy, scheduled for this week, has however been postponed. The executive is counting on the return of spring, and therefore good weather, to achieve a
"more acceptable situation"
,
"after surely difficult months of February and March"
.
"We have to be able to withstand the shock over time, because it is far from over,"
Jean Castex admits in private. Most experts don't imagine a return to normal life for months. In
Le JDD
, Yves Lévy, professor of clinical immunology, even believes that we must prepare for the virus to circulate
"for years"
.