Stéphane Rozès is a political scientist and professor at Sciences Po. He is the president of Cap (Advice, Analysis and Perspectives) and the author of Chaos. Essai sur les imaginaires des peuples (ed. du Cerf, 2022), book-interview with Arnaud Benedetti.
THE FIGARO. - After Emmanuel Macron's meeting in Saint-Denis with the leaders of the main political parties present in the National Assembly, the majority welcomed a "fruitful outstretched hand". Do you share that enthusiasm?
Stéphane ROZÈS. - It is a first "presidential round" necessary but insufficient. After the retirement law and the loss of political legitimacy that represented for the public the recourse to 49.3, after the riots, then the first positions within the majority for the next presidential election, it was a question of reconnecting with the country. The President of the Republic says he wants to "move forward"; and I would add ''last another four years'. Since his attempts at direct contact with the French have failed, he returns to the "old world" to try to reconnect with the country again.
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On the one hand, this conference was necessary. The mere fact of having succeeded in bringing together all the political parties is already to the credit of the rather singular operation led by Emmanuel Macron. All important topics were discussed. He was thus able to obtain a geography of possibilities in Parliament or by referendum: with the right and the RN on the sovereign and immigration; with the left and the RN on the social. On institutions and ecology, it is more vague and more consensual. Finally, at the end of the meeting, there was a certain restraint or a wait-and-see criticism on the part of the participants.
But this meeting remains insufficient because the subject of Emmanuel Macron is the French. They are waiting for concrete decisions. From now on, the ball is in Emmanuel Macron's court. A government seminar under the aegis of Elisabeth Borne will take place, but it is obviously the president who will be in the front line and who will decide everything. Emmanuel Macron repeated that other meetings, other meetings with intermediate bodies will take place. But the essential remains to be done, because it must ensure that majorities of circumstance can be formed in the event of a referendum on issues such as social issues or immigration.
If Emmanuel Macron does not make serious and concrete proposals, he will not be able to last long.
Stéphane Rozès
Emmanuel Macron has validated the principle of a "social conference" and planned to hold other meetings of this kind at regular intervals. Can dialogue with parties and unions really transcend divisions?
In terms of social conferences, it is the unions that will set the tone. The CFDT and the CGT want to maintain a unitary image. This social conference could take place, but the themes for the moment concern only low-income sectors, below the minimum wage. The expectations of the French, whether they are employees or retirees, revolve around the question of purchasing power. The number of unemployed and non-retired employees is likely to lead to significant impoverishment. Finally, the idea of a social conference is good, but it is for the moment too limited as to its purpose. To win the support of the French, concrete measures with rapid effects are needed.
After the great debate, the citizens' conventions for the climate and euthanasia, the National Council of the refoundation, Emmanuel Macron seeks, with this initiative, to gain time?
After repeated crises in the country showing a loss of political legitimacy, power is legal but the country is in a state of "polycrisis". If Emmanuel Macron does not make serious and concrete proposals, he will not be able to last long. For the country to be at least pacified, it will inevitably have to dissolve or put its legitimacy at stake through a referendum.
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The idea of holding referendums is still on the table. Would appealing directly to the people be more effective than dialogue with political parties?
For now, Emmanuel Macron has in reserve referendums that accentuate the neo-Bonapartist character of his attitude. Unless the referendums are on consensual themes or on several subjects in parallel, he will first try to see if he can achieve majorities with variable geometry. "At the same time" is not possible on substantive issues. There, he has the choice between the parliamentary route and the referendum route. He has four years left. The mere fact that even within its majority, there are already political pre-positions shows that the country is in a very great instability. The challenge for Emmanuel Macron is to move forward but above all to hold on because the country risks passing from crisis to crisis.