The Iowa caucuses open the race for the Republican Party's nomination for the Nov. 5 presidential election. The primary race will be decided in just over two months. In Iowa, only 40 delegates are elected, but since this is the first round, its symbolic value is much greater. The outcome of the caucuses will influence those of the next primary election.
1. Trump's vote share
The margin of Trump's victory in Iowa will give a first measure of the degree of surrender of the Republican base to the former president. Until now, the biggest advantage for a non-White House GOP candidate in the Iowa caucuses was Bob Dole's 12 points in 1988.
"We should do that. If we don't, let them criticize us, right?" Trump told volunteers in Des Moines, Iowa's capital, on Sunday morning. "But let's see if we get to 50%," he insisted, although shortly before he had complained that such a high expectation was set. "[It's so that] if we end up with 49 percent, which would be about 25 points more than anybody's ever got, they can say, 'It's been a failure, it's been a failure,'" he said.
A lead of more than 12 points is a record, a 20-25 lead implies sweeping, but if it achieves less than 50%, it would mean that the base has preferred another candidate over Trump. The former president wants to get more votes than everyone else combined.
2. Who's second
Iowa's fiercest battle is over who comes in second to Trump. But it has a different meaning depending on who achieves it. If Ron DeSantis does it, it will be a relief. The Florida governor kicked off the campaign by saying, "We're going to win Iowa"; however, in his recent rallies and interviews he has changed to, "We're going to do well in Iowa." If he comes third, his viability as a candidate will be in question. If Nikki Haley comes in second, even if it's a long way from Trump, she will be able to sell a story of continuous improvement, on her way to New Hampshire, where her prospects are good. Even if she comes third in Iowa, a very conservative state, more favorable to Trump and DeSantis, but within striking distance of DeSantis, she will be able to continue with that narrative.
3. Participation and the Cold
Snow and cold will weigh on participation in the Iowa caucuses. Temperatures are expected to be below minus 20 degrees Celsius by the time the event kicks off at 19:00 p.m. (2 a.m. on Tuesday in mainland Spain). There are areas that are poorly connected due to snow and ice. Still, after two days without snow, the situation is somewhat better than it seemed on Friday and Iowans are used to the cold temperatures. How turnout affects each candidate will be decisive.
Trump and DeSantis' bases are more rural and older, making it difficult for them to turn, but polls show they are both far more enthusiastic and dedicated than Haley's voters. The former president, a lover of excesses, asked his people to go and vote even if they were sick. "Even if you vote and then die, it will have been worth it," he told them at a rally Sunday in Indianola, south of Des Moines, Iowa's capital.
4. Ramaswamy and Other Marginal Candidates
The Iowa caucuses rarely propel anyone to the presidency (Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama are perhaps the most prominent cases), but they often serve as a sieve to rule out candidates with no chances. This time around, many have thrown in the towel before they started, including former Vice President Mike Pence or, last week, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Still, several fringe candidates survive, including entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson. Their results in Iowa should make them rethink whether it's worth continuing.
5. The Road to New Hampshire
There is barely a week left until the second round in the primary race. The Republican base has a date on Tuesday of next week in New Hampshire. There, Nikki Haley is hot on Donald Trump's heels, while Ron DeSantis is off the hook. The Iowa outcome will influence voters' perceptions of whether the outcome of the Republican elections is decided, or whether there is still a party.
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