Rishi Sunak's war drums in the middle of an election year in the United Kingdom

It doesn't seem like a coincidence. 2024, the year in which the UK's Conservative government faces the polls with a bleak prognosis – all polls point to a lead of at least 18 percentage points for the Labour opposition – is the year chosen to show military muscle. "The era in which we were able to reap the dividends of peace is over. In the next five years we face multiple scenarios of war, against Russia, China, Iraq or North Korea," British Defence Minister Grant Shapps said on Monday in his first speech with substance since he was appointed by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at the end of August. The peace dividends, Shapps explained, were the result of the end of the Cold War under Margaret Thatcher. Years without clear enemies in which public money could have been allocated to education and health rather than to tanks or fighter jets.

In Boris Johnson's final months as prime minister, when his reputation was already at rock bottom due to the partygate scandal – the parties banned in Downing Street during the pandemic lockdown – the drums of war came to his rescue. Staunch support for Ukraine, and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, briefly restored Johnson's popularity. The idea that the United Kingdom remained a country whose military weight is decisive in any international conflict – the Rule Britannia so sweet to the ears of those who backed Brexit – has been the lifeline of a Conservative Party in search of its place in the world after letting go of its moorings with the European Union.

And Sunak has also chosen that trump card. Within 24 hours, he made a surprise trip to Kyiv to meet with Zelenski and reaffirm his commitment to the Ukrainian cause, with the announcement of an extra 2.900 billion euros in military aid. At the same time, the joint attack of US and British forces on Houthi rebel facilities in Yemen was announced, due to their continuous attacks in recent weeks on merchant and military vessels crossing the Red Sea route.

"In times of peril, we will invest in strengthening the defense of our critical infrastructure, we will continue to build alliances, and we will be steadfast in defending our principles: international security, the rule of law, and the freedom to determine our own future. Any attack on these principles will be an attack on everything we believe in, on which both our well-being and our lives depend," Sunak said Monday in parliament.

Aware that any military intervention whose next steps are not well known – for example, Iraq in 2003 or Syria in 2013 – can be a political hornet's nest, Sunak showed respect for Parliament and the opposition – Labour has backed intervention in Yemen – and avoided aggressive rhetoric. He had left that in the hands of his defense minister, who hours earlier had not hesitated to describe the leftist forces as pusillanimous in the face of the current threats in the world.

"This is the time to decide our defense policy. The choice is tough. Some, especially on the left, are tempted to always underestimate our country. They believe that the UK no longer has the strength to influence world events, that we should retreat and ignore what happens beyond our shores," Shapps said in his speech.

"We are at the dawn of a new era in which we are transitioning from a post-war to a pre-war world. Old enemies have been resurrected, and new enemies are taking shape. The foundations on which the old world order was based have been profoundly shaken," Shapps announced, without anticipating any increase in spending on the defence budget beyond what the British government had already announced.

The UK spends more than $58 billion a year on military spending, about 000% of its budget. It has recently announced new budget allocations to modernise its nuclear arsenal and to replenish itself with ammunition and weaponry, after a year of continuous supply of material to Ukraine. Shapps has called on NATO members that have not yet done so to honour the commitment to allocate 2% to defence. Downing Street has reaffirmed its willingness to reach 2.2% when the accounts allow it.

The Defence Minister also announced the UK's decision to send more than 20,000 members of its armed forces to NATO's Exercise Steadfast Defender joint military exercises in the first half of 2024, with the participation of its 31 partner countries along with Sweden.

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