Is Donald Trump the inevitable candidate? That's the question that resonates in the U.S. Republican Party as the Iowa caucuses kick off, which are held on a national holiday honoring Martin Luther King. In Iowa, the cold has kept people in their homes most of the day. The heavy snowfall that fell last week still partly covers the election posters. Tens of thousands of citizens are preparing to brave temperatures below minus 20 degrees Celsius on Monday to head to hundreds of schools, sports centers, community centers, churches and other places to choose their favorite candidate. Trump's victory is taken for granted. It remains to be seen by how much margin and who comes in second, Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley.
Trump leads the polls by a wide margin in the country as a whole, but former U.N. ambassador and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley believes the battle for the nomination is undecided. After competing in Iowa, a conservative, religious state that doesn't particularly favor her, Haley has her sights set on New Hampshire, where the primary is next Tuesday, and her prospects are good. She wants to consolidate herself there and for the Republican primaries to be perceived as a matter of two: Trump and her. Still, the former president's lead among the Republican base seems almost insurmountable.
Not just among the grassroots. Trump has been gathering support among Republican Party congressmen and, either out of fear or conviction, this weekend he already had more than half of all Republican senators and representatives. One of those who have allowed him to surpass the bar has been Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Trump's critical rival in the 2016 primaries and now devoted to his cause. He has preferred it over the governor of his state, Ron DeSantis, which must have hurt the latter.
Haley has her upward trajectory as an asset. While DeSantis has been sinking in the polls, she hasn't stopped improving. The calendar favors him. The next battle is in New Hampshire, a small state, but more urban, moderate and educated than Iowa. The governor, the popular Chris Sununu, who is opposed to Trump, has offered him his full support. Haley has also been met with the gift of retirement from Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, who aroused sympathy in New Hampshire. As the only openly anti-Trump candidate, Haley is aiming to win over a large part of his voters.
Leaving negativity behind
On Monday, the candidates rushed until the last minute to campaign and concentrated their last efforts around Des Moines, the state's capital and most populous city. Haley has insisted in her latest campaign messages on presenting herself as a "new generational leader who leaves behind negativity and baggage and focuses on the solutions of the future," an alternative to the "chaos" that haunts Trump. "We can't defeat Democratic chaos with Republican chaos," he insists again and again.
The day has also come with a bombardment of advertising on local television, mainly with negative ads from Haley against DeSantis and vice versa. Once again, Trump comes out on top in that crossover battle between his two pursuers.
The former president has spent most of the day on the phone with his caucus captains, a kind of delegates at the different meetings that are being held this afternoon to vote. Unlike what the Democratic caucuses were like until now (with votes by show of hands, formation of groups and elimination of candidates with less support), in the Republicans they vote with ballots and the vote is secret.
Trump has also been active on Monday attacking his rivals from his social network, Truth. In it, he has again used his insulting nickname against Haley, "ploverhead," and called her a "globalist." He has criticized Fox News for airing a poll showing Haley trailing closely behind in New Hampshire in voting intentions. Although he has also taken a jab at DeSantis and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, his continued attacks on the lone female candidate show that she is the one he fears the most at the moment.
After New Hampshire, the next stops in the Republican primaries are in Nevada and South Carolina, where DeSantis also has high expectations. In both, Trump's advantage is very clear, but South Carolina is Haley's home state, where she was governor, and she can play the local card there.
Whatever happens in these first rounds, Trump remains the clear favorite, according to the polls, but the chances of a real alternative depend on a narrow victory or defeat for Haley in New Hampshire, where snow and cold are also expected next week. In Iowa, bad weather has taken some toll on the caucus economy, a political and tourist attraction that acts as a source of revenue for the state every four years.
Follow all the international news on Facebook and X, or in our weekly newsletter.