The U.S. presidential election is a race of endurance. On the road to the White House, the Republican primary will determine which candidate will face incumbent President Joe Biden, who is expected to be inaugurated barring any major surprises. The primary kicks off on Monday, as is tradition, with the organization of the first "caucus" in Iowa.
An indirect election
The primary elections will be spread over 5 months, until June 4, in the 50 American states, plus the District of Columbia and small territories (Guam, Puerto Rico, etc.). The stated objective of this unique mechanism is to allow citizens, and not the political parties themselves, to choose who will represent the Republican Party in the presidential election on 5 November. These are indirect ballots: voters vote for local delegates, who are then responsible for choosing their foal.
Presidential candidates will need a majority of the vote to be nominated in the Republican Convention, which will be held July 15-18 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The size of each State's delegation depends on its population. California (169), Texas (162), Florida (125) and New York (91) have the most.
The rules differ by state. Some hold primaries open to all voters (Texas, Louisiana, Michigan, etc.), in which non-party affiliates can vote. Others prefer a closed ballot (New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, etc.), which means that only those who are registered can vote.
What is a "caucus"?
In half a dozen states, "caucuses" rather than primaries are being held. Caucuses are local meetings wherevoters gather to debate and express their preference for a candidate. Unlike primaries, they involve open discussions and public voting, without polling stations or voting booths. As for the Republicans – in Nevada, Dakota, Idaho and Iowa – the vote takes place by secret ballot, sometimes on a simple piece of paper.
Among Democrats, on the other hand, it is public, and caucus participants physically separate into several groups, depending on the candidate they support. This voting method, a vestige of participatory democracy, is used less and less because of its organizational complexity.
Proportional, or "winner take all"?
To be sworn into the presidential race, candidates must secure a majority of delegates, who will then vote at conventions this summer. States have different rules for defining the number of delegates allocated to candidates, based on their results in primaries and caucuses. In the majority of cases, the person who receives the most votes wins the entire stake and wins all the delegates at stake. This is the "winner take all" principle.
Other states are opting for proportional representation. Under this system, candidates for the party's nomination are allocated delegates in proportion to the share of the vote they receive in caucuses or primaries. Finally, there are also states using a hybrid system.
However, according to CNN, it may take until May or June before a candidate gets enough votes to be certain of winning the Republican Party nomination. The winner will be introduced at the Republican National Convention, July 15-18 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. More than 2,400 delegates are expected to attend.
Why is "Super Tuesday" considered a crucial milestone?
Super Tuesday, which will take place on March 5, is a crucial moment in the electoral process since primaries, both Democratic and Republican, are taking place simultaneously in some fifteen states, some of them very important. On the Republican side, 874 delegates will be up for grabs. This day can significantly influence the presidential race, and usually provides a clear idea of who is the frontrunner for the nomination.
Who are the favourites?
Despite his many legal troubles, Donald Trump is well on his way to winning this crucial electoral appointment: according to the polls, he has one of the largest leads ever seen over his rivals - nearly 50% of voting intentions.
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Five candidates are vying to block his path to the White House, but only two still seem to have a chance. Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, the only woman in the race, is enjoying a recent rise in the polls. The 50-year-old is the new darling of the right, much appreciated in particular by the business community.
As for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a conservative with a strong stance on immigration and abortion, the 99-year-old has staked everything on Iowa, crisscrossing each of the 21 counties in recent months. Observers do not rule out that one or the other will create a surprise and nibble away at part of Donald Trump's huge lead. A debate between the candidates will take place on Jan. <>, less than a week after the Iowa caucuses.