Status: 16.01.2024, 16:11 PM
By: Felix Busjaeger
CommentsPrint Share
The situation in the Middle East is coming to a head: Iran has fired missiles at Iraq and Syria. An analysis of the consequences of the attack for the Israeli war.
Tel Aviv/Tehran – For more than 100 days, the war in Israel has been the dominant issue in the Middle East. Nearly every new development stokes fears of a conflagration that plunges several countries into a larger war. Fighting threatens to escalate in several sideshows. With the recent missile attacks by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards on targets in Iraq and Syria, Tehran is positioning itself offensively in the Israeli war for the first time. The consequences for the Middle East are uncertain.
Iran launches attack on Iraq and Syria: Mossad headquarters as target
According to its own statements, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has fired several ballistic missiles at targets in Iraq and Syria. On Tuesday (16 January), they announced on an official IRGC channel that the attacks were revenge for, among other things, the attack in the southern Iranian city of Kerman in early January and the killing of a high-ranking IRGC officer at the end of December.
The target of the attack in northern Iraq was a spy center of the Israeli secret service Mossad. "Tonight, ballistic missiles were used to destroy espionage centers and gatherings of anti-Iranian terrorist groups in the region," the Revolutionary Guards said. According to Iran, the attack in Syria was aimed at the terrorist militia Islamic State (IS).
The Iranian military fires missiles during an exercise (archive image). According to information from Tehran, targets in Syria have been shelled. © Dpa
According to the state news agency Irna, with a distance of more than 1200,1200 kilometers, it was Iran's most geographically far-reaching missile operation to date. In Tel Aviv, the attack is likely to cause greater concern. After all, <>,<> kilometers would be about the distance that rockets from western Iran would need to reach important targets in Israel. The Iranian show of force could thus also have been a clear signal to the archenemy.
Iran attacks Iraq: US responds and condemns attacks in war in the Middle East
A U.S. State Department spokesman said an Iranian strike near the northern Iraqi city of Erbil on Monday "undermines Iraq's stability." Matthew Miller said, according to the Guardian: "We oppose Iran's reckless missile attacks." He added that the U.S. supports "the efforts of the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government to live up to the aspirations of the Iraqi people."
My news
Missiles and drones for Ukraine missing: Pentagon misses weapons - worth 1.7 billion reads
Ukrainians get tanks after a long hesitation - but directly with additional protection.
Drone army without a target: Putin's troops gain control of the airwaves read
Internal AfD e-mail reveals intrigue against Aigner – horror follows: "It's about destroying our democracy"read
Bavaria wants to shake up individual asylum law: traffic light to set up departure centres at airportsread
Gamechanger in the Ukraine war: How the Bradley tank holds up against Russiaread more
It is now an open secret that the war in the Gaza Strip and its impact on the Middle East has been drawing the US deeper into the conflicts for longer than the government wanted. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been trying to find diplomatic solutions since the outbreak of the Israeli war, and he regularly travels to the region. And fighter jets are now also attacking Houthi bases in Yemen from the US aircraft carrier "Dwight D. Eisenhower".
War between Hamas and Israel on the verge of expansion: Iran, Hezbollah and Houthis ignite in the Middle East
What began in October as a war between Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Israel has now spread to several theaters: In northern Israel, there are repeated skirmishes with Hezbollah, the Houthis from Yemen are firing rockets at various lines. For almost three months, meanwhile, Iran remained conspicuously quiet. However, as a string-puller in the background and a supporter of anti-Israel groups, Tehran will have already had an active influence on the attacks on Israel in recent months.
Recently, however, the tones from the Muslim country had become more shrill: At the beginning of the year, Iran sent the warship "Alborz" to the Red Sea. Now, a few hours after Iran's latest missile attack, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised the Houthi rebels' fight against Israel. "The nation of Yemen and Ansar Allah (Houthi) have indeed done a great job," the state-run Irna news agency quoted the 84-year-old as saying on Tuesday. Their work is the proof of the struggle in the way of God. "We hope that these efforts will lead to victory," Khamenei said.
Iran pulls the strings in the Middle East: The brains behind an anti-Israel alliance
Iran's role in the Middle East's power structure has been marked by a deep hatred of Israel since the Iranian revolution in the 1970s. For decades, Tehran has supported Hamas financially and militarily, and Iran also leads the self-proclaimed "Axis of Resistance," an alliance of anti-Israel militias. In addition to the Israeli state, it is also directed against the US military presence in the Middle East.
According to expert Azadeh Zamirirad, Iran wants to avoid further escalation in the region – but the country is still igniting. Although many groups belong to the alliance against Israel, the "axis of resistance" has a hard time in the region. "It is unpopular in large parts of the region because it is perceived as Iran's means of interfering in the internal affairs of neighboring states and undermining state control here by force," Zamirirad told the Federal Agency for Civic Education in October.
Consequences of Israel's war on the Middle East: Saudi Arabia and Iran compete for supremacy
However, the fact that Shiite Iran is stepping up its efforts in the Middle East could also be related to Saudi Arabia's appearance. The Sunni government in Riyadh is currently positioning itself on the side of its Western allies and is using its own air defences to counter Houthi attacks. In an older post, the Council on Foreign Relations ranks Saudi Arabia as an important factor in the region's political order.
Saudi Arabia and Iran are in direct competition for supremacy in the Middle East. The relationship is characterized by strategic rivalry and mutual mistrust. Nevertheless, it was only last year that both sides announced their intention to intensify their relations again. The Tagesschau assessed the rapprochement at the beginning of 2023 as the beginning of a possible upheaval in the region.
However, the outbreak of war in Israel could set back these efforts, the Journal of International Politics and Society (IPG) judged last October. It remains to be seen to what extent the latest developments will actually have a lasting impact on the relationship between the two countries. What is certain is that Iran's missile attacks in the war in the Middle East have sent a clear signal to Israel and its allies – and it cannot be ruled out that more will follow in the coming days. (fbu)