Status: 16.01.2024, 14:46 PM
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Syrians look at an abandoned medical facility that was hit by Iranian missiles late Monday night, according to the White Helmets volunteer rescue organization. © Omar Albam/AP/dpa
Missile strikes from Iranian soil on targets in Syria and Iraq mark a new dimension of the conflict in the Middle East. Experts do not see a new escalation, but warn of a particular danger.
Tehran - Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) have fired numerous missiles at targets in Iraq and Syria amid tensions in the Middle East.
The Iranian news agency Tasnim published a video in which several ballistic missiles rise and briefly light up the night sky. "In response to the recent terrorist crimes committed by the enemies of Islamic Iran, espionage centers and gatherings of anti-Iranian terrorist groups (...) attacked and destroyed," reads an initial IRGC statement.
On the night, when rockets were fired from Iranian territory for the first time since the beginning of the Gaza war, the fear of an escalation is more present than ever before. The attacks with two dozen missiles are retaliation, among other things, for the recent terrorist attacks in Iran as well as the killing of a high-ranking IRGC officer at the end of December, the IRGC web portal said. "We assure our beloved people that the offensive operations of the Revolutionary Guard will continue until even the last drop of the martyrs' blood is avenged," it said in a statement.
Rockets hit the northern Iraqi metropolis of Erbil, killing at least four people. Iran's Revolutionary Guard described the target as the spy center of Israel's Mossad intelligence service. A well-known businessman is said to be among the victims, who, according to Iranian media reports, is suspected of having ties to Israel. In Syria, according to state media, extremists and supporters of the terrorist militia Islamic State (IS) in Idlib province were attacked.
In retaliation for recent terrorist attacks, Iran's Revolutionary Guards are firing missiles at Syria. The target is the terrorist militia Islamic State (archive photo). © Vahid Salemi/AP/dpa
The attack was the country's most far-reaching missile operation to date, covering a distance of more than 1200,<> kilometers. This should also be a clear signal to the arch-enemy Israel. It would be about the same distance that rockets would need from the west of the country to reach Tel Aviv or Jerusalem.
Gaza conflict stokes fears of regional war in the Middle East
More than three months after the start of the Gaza war, tensions in the region continue to rise. While Israel's army is gradually withdrawing combat units from the coastal strip after intense fighting, the situation on the border in the north with the Lebanese Hezbollah militia has been threatening to escalate at any time for months. The situation in the Red Sea and Yemen has also been raising concerns since the militant Islamist Houthis attacked ships on the important sea route to Israel. The U.S. has already responded with air strikes on positions of the Houthi militia, from which the militia has so far been unimpressed. The Houthis, as well as Hezbollah, are closely linked to Iran.
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Experts and observers believe that the world is currently witnessing a dangerous shadow conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran. Shortly after the terrorist attack on Israel by the Islamist Hamas on October 7, the country's leadership praised the attack as an act of resistance, but vehemently rejected direct involvement. Instead, Iranian-allied Shiite militias in the region repeatedly attacked U.S. bases in both Iraq and Syria. Tehran reiterates that it will not issue orders. Rather, the groups act autonomously, Iran's Foreign Minister Hussein Amirabdollahian said recently.
From Tehran to Beirut: Iran's "Axis of Resistance"
Since the 1979 revolution, the United States and Israel have been considered archenemies of the Islamic Republic. The Revolutionary Guards, in particular, have therefore expanded their influence in the region under their generals. One of the most powerful generals, Ghassem Soleimani, was killed by the US in a targeted drone strike in Baghdad four years ago. To this day, the former commander of the IRGC's foreign unit is revered as a martyr among loyal supporters of the system.
At the end of December, an Iranian brigadier general, a confidant of Soleimani, was killed in a suspected Israeli airstrike in Syria, who, according to information from the New York Times, is said to have supervised arms deliveries to the Lebanese Hezbollah militia. General Seyed-Rasi Mousavi was not in the public eye, but his assassination marked a setback for the IRGC. Iran's military leadership vowed revenge to Israel.
Israel's Existence Feels Threatened
For years, Israeli politicians have been concerned about the threatening tones of the leadership in Tehran, which denies the Jewish state's right to exist. Shortly before the Hamas invasion, Iran's head of state, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had reiterated old threats against Israel, calling the state a cancer.
In addition to the threat of a massive arsenal of missiles and drones, Israel also fears Iran's controversial nuclear program. The U.S. had repeatedly accused Tehran of striving for nuclear weapons. Iran denies the allegations and insists that weapons of mass destruction are incompatible with Islam.
Rapprochements with Israel - will Tehran be marginalized?
Non-state allies are also important for Iran's expansion and retention of power, because the declared arch-enemy Israel is growing more strongly into the region. Bahrain, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates have normalized their relations with Israel in recent years. Initial talks about such a step were also held by Saudi Arabia under US mediation. The talks were suspended after the start of the Gaza war. However, Riyadh is still interested in such an agreement, which would be directed primarily against Iran and China.
This still image, from a video provided by Rudaw TV, shows authorities and others near the site where rockets landed near the U.S. consulate. © Uncredited/Rudaw TV/AP/dpa
Tehran had also normalized its relations with Saudi Arabia in 2023 after years of diplomatic ice age - but after an initial euphoria, the mood has cooled significantly. With the "coolly calculated" agreement, Iran wanted to prove that the country is not regionally isolated, said expert Barbara Slavin of the U.S. think tank Stimson Center last fall. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, wants Iran to "insure against external attacks" in an attempt to achieve its ambitious economic goals.
Experts do not see a new quality of escalation
According to experts, the Iranian government was under pressure in the face of a devastating terrorist attack on the anniversary of Soleimani's death in his hometown of Kerman and after the killing of Mousavi. Nevertheless, the missile attack was not aimed at a complete escalation. Sina Azodi of George Washington University told Al Jazeera that the rocket attacks were not a sign of a new regional escalation.
"The Iranians have repeatedly stated that they are not interested in an escalation of the conflict. But I think as long as the conflict in Gaza continues, we will see such actions," the expert said. "My biggest concern is that there could be casualties in one of these attacks, including in the U.S., which would force the United States to respond, and then it could escalate without anyone really wanting a war."