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Good morning!
After judging
the predictions for 2023
, today I write to you with my predictions for 2024. Remember that you can participate with
this simple form
.
I repeat this exercise for two reasons.
First, because the first edition amused many readers (and me).
But also because it is a form of transparency.
Those of us who are dedicated to public speaking tend to make unfalsifiable forecasts.
He is human, but a cheater.
Think, for example, of someone saying that they “do not rule out” a new pandemic or that Spain “could” win the Euro Cup.
They are empty statements, because it is evident that these events are possible, the difficult thing is to estimate their probability: does the person speaking believe that they have 1% of options?
10%?
80%?
Saying “perhaps” or “possible”, without specifying, is a rhetorical trick to talk about the future without getting wet.
That's why probabilistic predictions are valuable: putting numbers to your statements helps hold you accountable.
So here are my predictions.
🇪🇸 National politics
(Instructions: Each prediction is a percentage of the probability I assign to each statement. Unless otherwise stated, everything refers to the last day of 2024.)
1. Pedro Sánchez will be president →
95% probability
2. The PP will govern in Galicia →
70%
3. Neither Podemos nor Vox will have representation in Galicia →
75%
4. In the Basque Country there will be a lehendakari from the PNV and a government agreement with the PSOE →
80%
5. Bildu will be the most voted in the Basque elections →
15%
6. The PP will be the Spanish party with the most seats in the European elections →
80%
7. Podemos will win a seat in the European elections →
70%
🗳️ World elections
8. European… The group of social democrats (SD) will prevail in seats over the popular ones (EPP) →
5%
9. European… The sum of seats of the two Eurosceptic groups (ECR and ID) will exceed the EPP →
55%
10. USA… Joe Biden will be the Democratic candidate →
92%
11. USA… Donald Trump will be elected president →
45%
Donald Trump after winning in IowaBRANDON BELL (Getty Images via AFP)
12. Mexico: Claudia Sheinbaum will be president →
80%
13. South Africa… Mandela's party (ANC) will drop below 50% of votes for the first time in 30 years →
58%
14. United Kingdom… Rishi Sunak will be Prime Minister →
33%
Comment.
For the elections I have looked at
Metaculus
and the polls on Wikipedia.
For example, for the United Kingdom I reasoned like this: (1) Metaculus says that Labor will have a majority with 85% in the next election;
(2) that matches his lead in polls (400 seats out of 650).
However, (3) it is not certain that the elections will be in 2024, and could be in January 2025;
Let's say that's 75% to 25%.
Furthermore, (4) there is some possibility of Sunak losing office for another reason.
Therefore, the probability of Sunak losing office is 85% x 75% + 3% ≈ 66%.
💰 Economy
15. The Ibex will end up positive →
57%
16. Bitcoins will end up positive →
65%
17. In Spain the median income will rise in the next measurement (2023; sixth decile here in INE) →
85%
18. And the percentage of people living at risk of poverty will decrease, from 20.4% in 2022 (INE) →
60%
19. The price of housing in Madrid capital will rise less than 10%, both for sale and rent (in idealista, Dec/Dec) →
70%
20. The unemployment rate in Spain will drop from 10% (in the EPA for the third quarter of 2023) →
15%
21. Argentina will dollarize its economy →
15%
22. China will grow less than 4% in 2024 →
37%
23. Novo Nordisk will be the most valuable European company (here) →
75%
24 … Inditex will be the first Spanish →
90%
Comment.
Here I have relied on reading the press and looking at the numbers.
For example, cryptocurrencies have in their favor that the US SEC has just approved bitcoin ETFs.
With the size of the companies, I have looked at the figures (Novo Nordisk has quite an advantage over the second company) and their prospects (favorable for the pharmaceutical company, which markets the new and successful anti-obesity drugs).
🚀 Technology
25. Intel shares will rise →
66%
26. Nvidia shares will rise →
57%
27. Microsoft shares will rise →
66%
28. Apple shares will rise →
55%
29. Alphabet Stock Will Rise →
62%
Manzana
30. OpenAI will announce GPT-5 →
70%
31. An open source model will equal GPT-4-Turbo in capabilities (solved here, with 95% CI) →
60%
32. Sam Altman will be fired again from OpenAI →
20%
33. The social network X/Twitter will declare bankruptcy →
33%
34. Elon Musk will continue to be the owner of X/Twitter →
73%
35. SpaceX's
Starship
will reach orbit (using this criterion to solve) →
66%
Comment.
With stocks I have used two shortcuts: it is very difficult to predict their evolution, but I think there are reasons to bet on technology stocks.
For the rest I have read the press, tweets, other people's predictions, etc.
⚽ Sports
36. Real Madrid will win LaLiga →
75%
37. Manchester City will win the Premier →
58%
38. Manchester City will win the Champions League →
25%
39. Barcelona will win the F League →
97%
40. And also the Women's Champions League →
55%
Aitana Bonmati, in a Champions League match against FC Rosengard.Johan Nilsson/TT (EFE)
41. Spain will reach the quarterfinals in the Euro Cup →
60%
42. Neither France nor England will win Euro 2024 →
63%
43. The USA will be the country with the most medals in the Games →
70%
44. Haaland will win the Ballon d'Or →
20%
Comment.
With sports it is easy to copy: in addition to looking at the rankings, I have consulted the
Opta predictions
and especially the betting markets.
Then I adjusted a little, knowing I shouldn't do it.
🎉 Entertainment
45. The highest-grossing movie of the year will be a franchise →
60%
46.
Oppenheimer
(and not
Barbie
) will win the Oscar for best picture →
65%
47. Taylor Swift will win the Grammy for album of the year →
60%
48. No one will surpass Taylor Swift's 2023 tour in revenue (1,039 million, according to Pollstar) →
80%
49. Spain will win Eurovision →
7%
50. Nintendo will launch a new Switch (Pro, 2…) →
85%
51. There will be a new trailer for the GTA 6 game and it will exceed 30 million views on YouTube →
80%
52. EL PAÍS will exceed 400,000 subscribers →
90%
53. The English edition of my book
Think clearly
will be announced →
85%
Promotional image of the video game GTA 6. / Rockstar Games
🗺️ Geopolitics
54. Russia will control Ukrainian territory beyond that occupied before the 2022 invasion →
70%
55. There will be a lasting ceasefire in Ukraine →
23%
56. China will invade Taiwan →
5%
57. Sweden will join NATO →
95%
😁 Optimism / pessimism
58. 2024 will surpass 2023 and will be the hottest year on record →
55%
59. Iberian lynxes will increase from 1,700 in the next census →
92%
60. WHO will declare an international health emergency (PHEIC) →
35%
61. Global optimism will increase: more people will agree with the phrase “I am optimistic that 2025 will be a better year for me than 2024 was” (Ipsos) →
55%
62. Average global wealth per adult will increase in the next measurement, corresponding to 2022 (WID) →
66%
63. And inequality will decrease, measured by the ratio between the wealth of the rich 10% and the poor 50% (WID) →
55%
* * *
This is the list.
Do you dare now to make your predictions?
You can share them with this simple form.
In a year's time I'll check to see how we've done, the same thing I did with my predictions for 2023. It was fascinating to travel back to my brain from 12 months ago... and find judgments that I didn't recognize!
If you dare to predict, perhaps the same thing happened to you in January 2025.
You help me?
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