As of: January 20, 2024, 7:03 a.m
By: Max Müller
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Friedrich Merz is currently the favorite to be the Union's candidate for chancellor, says political scientist Thomas Biebricher.
But there is a stumbling block - then Hendrik Wüst's hour could come.
There is an anecdote circulating about Gerhard Schröder that, as Juso boss, he shook the fence of the Bonn Chancellery after a pub crawl and shouted: “I want to get in there.” Such stories are not known in the race for the CDU chancellorship in 2024, and are downright unthinkable.
This image is least likely to suit Hendrik Wüst, Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia.
And that is not primarily because Berlin is further away than Bonn from the NRW government headquarters in Düsseldorf.
It is obvious to Thomas Biebricher that Wüst cannot shake any fence at the moment.
“Friedrich Merz is currently too clearly the favorite for that,” says the political scientist from the University of Frankfurt.
But that doesn't have to mean much.
Because in 2024 the state elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia could bring a lot of movement to the chancellor debate.
“The elections in the East play a crucial role.
They could become a stumbling block for Merz because it will then become clear whether his course is successful.
The core question is: How well is the CDU holding up against the AfD?”
Hendrik Wüst as administrator of the Merkel legacy
Merz has repeatedly been accused in the past of steering too far to the right.
He said about asylum seekers who are required to leave the country: “They sit at the doctor and have their teeth changed, and the German citizens next door don't get any appointments.” He qualified students with a migrant background as “little Pashas”.
In an interview, Merz did not rule out collaboration with the AfD at the local level, which many observers saw as a breach of the dam.
A short time later he qualified these statements and confirmed that there would be no cooperation with the AfD.
According to a survey on Chancellor preference, Hendrik Wüst (right) is ahead of Friedrich Merz.
© Kay Nietfeld/dpa
In this respect, it is not all that surprising that Hendrik Wüst recently called for a “centre alliance” on the migration issue.
Because one thing is clear: If Merz's course doesn't follow, Wüst's hour could come, believes political scientist Biebricher.
“He is trying to position himself as the legitimate successor to Angela Merkel: sober, calm and very much in the political center.” Like Merkel, Wüst lacks a big vision, but that does not have to limit his chances.
“Wüst has made it clear several times that he is not a fan of the Merz course.
If the signs point to a more moderate course in late summer, then he would of course be the more suitable candidate for chancellor compared to Merz.”
Wüst is currently ahead of Merz
In any case, the signs in January 2024 are clearly pointing to desolation, at least if you ask the voters.
According to a current Forsa survey on Chancellor preference, Wüst is ahead of Merz.
According to this, 36 percent of voters would choose Wüst, Merz only gets 28 percent.
In North Rhine-Westphalia, where both politicians come from, Wüst is well ahead of Merz (29 percent) with 46 percent.
This is only topped by Markus Söder, the third candidate for chancellor, who would win the race in Bavaria with 54 percent.
Behind them, Wüst received 40 percent approval, Merz 32 percent.
Such news has so far rolled off Wüst’s radar – at least to the outside world.
His mantra is: His place is “currently” in NRW.
Common rhetoric?
“Yes, if asked, a Markus Söder would also say that his place is in Bavaria.
It would be highly unprofessional to make your ambitions clear now,” says Biebricher.
Nevertheless, Wüst shows that he wants to have a say.
At the end of 2023, he caused a stir when he announced that he wanted to have a say in the selection of candidates.
“Just as the CSU understandably claims to have a say in this, so too do the state chairmen and prime ministers of the CDU,” he told
Spiegel
.
Wüst has a decisive advantage over Merz: age.
Wüst is 48 years old and therefore 20 years younger than Merz.
A penalty that Merz himself discussed in an interview with the German Press Agency.
“After Konrad Adenauer, I would be the oldest applicant for the office of Federal Chancellor.
These are considerations that I have to keep in mind.” Wüst can remain completely calm in this regard.
“He still has the majority of his political career ahead of him, so for that reason alone it will be held back now.
He doesn’t have to run by hook or by crook in the next federal election,” says political scientist Biebricher.