As of: January 20, 2024, 2:41 p.m
By: Marcus Giebel
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Split
His party is slipping further and further in the election polls: Chancellor Olaf Scholz has to accept regular defeats with the SPD.
© IMAGO
In a new election survey, the SPD suffers the next defeat.
The Sahra Wagenknecht alliance would move into the Bundestag.
Berlin - The SPD is getting closer and closer to its coalition partners in the traffic lights - on Sunday questions.
Which is extremely worrying for the supposed people's party.
The Social Democrats' status as the third force in the polls is now shaky.
The chaos in plugging the budget holes, which has already resulted in the eight days of farmers' protests including support from entrepreneurs, is apparently falling primarily on the Chancellor's party.
Survey slap for Scholz: Only 13 percent approval for SPD
According to the latest survey by the opinion research institute INSA for
Bild
(article behind a paywall), the SPD only has 13 percent.
This is the worst value in this series since Olaf Scholz took over the government and just half of the 25.7 percent from the most recent federal election.
At that time, the SPD surprisingly emerged as the strongest force, which was probably also thanks to the dispute between the two alpha animals of the Union, Armin Laschet and Markus Söder, who were fighting for the candidacy for chancellor.
The CDU and CSU are now greetings again from the top and still receive 30 percent of the votes among the 1,203 respondents who were allowed to vote between January 15th and 19th.
The AfD, which has 22 percent, is neither moving up nor down.
The revelations surrounding a meeting of some members with right-wing extremists and the gathering pace of protests against the party do not appear to have had any impact so far.
Video: Germany in new election fever?
Survey reveals tensions
Traffic light parties in survey lows: only the Greens are making slight gains
The aforementioned SPD, on the other hand, lost two percent.
It also reached this low of 13 percent in a survey by the Elections Research Group a week earlier and in a Forsa trend on Tuesday.
The Greens are on par, having even gained one percent and have not been in a better position at INSA since mid-November.
The FDP, as the third traffic light party, still has to worry about returning to the Bundestag at five percent.
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The Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) alliance, which was founded just a few days ago around the former left-wing politician, has achieved more approval straight away.
If polled regularly for the first time, the party would get seven percent of the vote.
That is more than twice as many as are left for the left.
They would lose one percent and be thrown out of parliament with three percent.
The same value is achieved by the Free Voters, who want to run nationwide for the first time, but would also not be represented in the Bundestag.
The other parties only had four percent left.
That is five percent less than before, when potential BSW voters also had to answer “other” in the survey.
Right back with a new party: The Sahra Wagenknecht alliance around the opinionated front woman would move straight into the Bundestag.
© IMAGO
Possible coalitions according to survey: Good chances for the Union and SPD in a three-party alliance
With this result, a continuation of the traffic lights would be impossible, because together the trio only gets 31 percent.
As in the past few weeks, only the Union and AfD have a stable majority of 52 percent, although such an alliance is publicly rejected, especially by the CDU.
It is just as insufficient for a grand coalition as it is for the black-green coalition, which would each hold 43 percent of the seats.
The most likely options would therefore be new three-party alliances made up of the Union, SPD and FDP or of the Union, SPD and Greens.
The former currently exists in Saxony-Anhalt, the latter in Brandenburg and Saxony.
The so-called Germany coalition with black, red and yellow would get 48 percent, which would be enough for a majority, since ten percent of all votes go to parties that would fail at the five percent hurdle.
The Kenya coalition of black, red and green would even get 56 percent of the votes.
A coalition between the Union, the Greens and the FDP would also be possible if the Eco Party and the Liberals actually enjoyed the cooperation so far.
This would be the Jamaica coalition, which failed in negotiations in 2017 and which current Finance Minister Christian Lindner put a stop to at the time.
This alliance of black, green and yellow does not currently exist in any state parliament.
(mg)