The voice of Carolina Soto (Bogotá, 50 years old) has an almost impossible virtue: she is heard with the same respect from the right as from the left.
In the last presidential campaign her name was heard often.
Not only because her husband, Alejandro Gaviria, fought unsuccessfully to lead the centrist candidacy, but because two of the favorite candidates - Gustavo Petro (left) and Federico Gutiérrez (right) - approached her with the intention of joining their ranks. to this renowned economist and former co-director of the Bank of the Republic.
She declined both offers and today, from the consulting firm Dattis Comunicaciones, far from the usual passions that polarize Colombia, she takes stock of a year and a half of Gustavo Petro's Government.
An Executive he knows well, after Gaviria served as Minister of Education for six months, before being dismissed by the president due to his political disagreements.
Soto, who defines himself as a center, warns of a difficult year for the country's economy and risks advising a government that he considers has become radicalized.
He encourages the presentation of a new tax reform and asks Petro to stop making announcements that “scare” and slow down investment.
However, looking towards 2026, the economist predicts that Colombia will return to the right.
Ask.
Is the country better today than a year and a half ago, before Petro?
Answer.
The country is not better.
There is a strong economic slowdown, a contraction in investment, an increase in the cost of access to credit and financing.
We have just closed a difficult year and entered a complex one as well.
Colombia was not the only country that experienced a difficult year due to inflation that grew a lot, but it still has some very big challenges and dark clouds ahead.
Q.
There are voices that warn that the economy is going very badly and those who say that it is going well.
Who has the reason?
A.
The economy is not doing so bad on the macro level, we continue to maintain the stability that has been characteristic of the Colombian economy.
The problem is at the micro level, in the great challenges of sectors such as infrastructure, housing, the electrical sector, the mining sector, the energy sector, the health sector.
There the problems are already accentuating and that is not sustainable because the micro ends up taking away the macro.
Q.
Are you optimistic about the country's economic future?
A.
This is also going to be a difficult and complex year, but in 2023 the projections said that it was going to be a terrible year and it was bad, but not terrible.
We are in a period of economic slowdown and the problems are probably going to get worse.
This is a decisive year because the management of economic policy will determine what happens in the future.
This year may be the one in which the foundations are laid for a solid recovery or, on the contrary, in which we continue with this slowdown and move further away from the recovery.
Q.
If you could give one piece of advice to the Government, what would it be?
A.
You have to give clear signs of where you are going and stop announcing what you are not going to do, stop scaring people.
There is a lot of uncertainty.
If you announce that you are going to carry out a new tax reform, that you are going to change the fiscal rule, that you are not going to continue supporting oil exploration projects or, on the issue of public order, you do not give clear messages about how we are going to stop this escalation of insecurity, disorder and lack of presence in the territory, freezes investment decisions.
This will be seen later in lower growth and lower income for families.
Q.
Petro generated mistrust in you due to fear of a change in model. Has it been as you expected?
A.
I thought he was going to be a little more plural in his style of leadership and government.
In the campaign he spoke of a national agreement, called the different forces and seemed much more institutional than the candidate who competed with him, Rodolfo Hernández.
Then I believed it was going to be a left-wing government, with a change of emphasis in public policy, but much more conciliatory and consensus-based.
And what we have seen is a president who has become increasingly radicalized, who has favored loyalties over knowledge and capabilities.
On the one hand there is a lot of sectarianism, but there is also a lack of management and competition in public administration.
We have stayed with the announcements and there is no one who executes or does the day-to-day life of the Government.
Q.
But can we talk about a change of model?
A.
The Government's view is that the participation of the private sector is harmful, when the economic model that has been in place for 30 years in the country was based on a successful alliance between the public and private sectors.
Now there is the idea of a model where the State should be the protagonist, but it does not go beyond rhetoric.
In Colombia we had bad experiences with a public offering that did not provide quality services and was highly susceptible to corruption.
The model has not formally changed, but the measures and decisions that have been taken are aimed at discouraging private sector participation.
Carolina Soto in an interview for EL PAÍS on January 19, 2024. NATHALIA ANGARITA
Q.
You participated in the transfer of the Mayor's Office of Bogotá, wouldn't you have liked to be part of the cabinet?
A.
We talked about it, but the truth is that I am very happy.
I have liked consulting, the flexibility that venturing into projects in different areas gives me, I have had the opportunity to work with companies from very diverse sectors... So I told the mayor to count on me as an external advisor, ad honorem, but not from within.
Q.
The center is the majority force in Bogotá, but it is doing very poorly in the rest of the country.
A.
Because it does not arouse passions, I believe.
The center is, as they say in Colombia, warm.
Different visions come together that seek dialogue, argumentation, evidence, and discussion.
It is easier to generate passion when you are radical, with a single vision.
The center is very broad, everything can be a center, so achieving that consensus also becomes more difficult.
At some point you will have your chance.
Q.
In the presidential campaign, you and your husband, former minister Alejandro Gaviria, had differences regarding Petro.
Has he ended up agreeing with her?
R.
No, he insists that Petro was the candidate who most represented the institutionality, therefore he believes that he was not wrong in supporting him against Rodolfo.
My recommendation was to vote blank, but Alejandro had just had an important political role and in his opinion, as a politician, he had to make a decision.
Q.
For you it was a mistake?
A.
Suddenly supporting him politically was a mistake, but having entered the cabinet was not.
Alejandro tried to do things right.
The debate generated and the breakup of the Government coalition in Congress as a result of the health reform was largely due to the fact that he was in the Government.
Inside the cabinet he brought his documents with his positions and arguments, and they did not like that.
Q.
You are a very political couple, any plans for 2026?
A.
I wouldn't want to, really.
I insist to Alejandro, but I'm already realizing it and I have to admit that it's probably going to happen again, but not on my part.
Q.
Is Colombia at risk of turning to the extreme right?
R.
I don't know ultra-right, but right.
I believe that the pendulum movement of politics has become more pronounced and that after this Government comes one much more to the right.
Q.
What scares you more, a Bukele or a Petro?
R.
Difficult to choose [stays silent for a while].
But Bukele.
I think that a Petro can greatly destabilize the country and put an end to that institutional strength that we had, but he can recover.
That is the task we have now in Colombia, to start thinking about how we are going to recover from the effects of this Government, from the destruction of state capacities, but it is easier to rebuild it than after a Government where human rights and guarantees are limited.
Q.
Would it be a mistake to get involved in tax reform again?
A.
No, I think that this Government could take advantage and carry out a good tax reform in which the bases are expanded.
In OECD countries, more or less 80% of income from rent collections comes from individuals and 20% from companies; in Colombia we have almost the opposite percentage.
The other thing that has to be done is to expand the VAT base and a reduction in the rate for companies would be desirable, but it cannot be done if we do not expand the bases.
Q.
What good things has Petro done?
A.
He has been bold in very unpopular fiscal measures such as the increase in gasoline.
Previous governments were not able to raise the price of gasoline and close that gap.
Petro was very brave.
This left-wing government, paradoxically, has the strength and capacity to carry out reforms that the more center-right governments could not.
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