The significance of the October 7 failure is not only the loss of the lives of approximately 1,200 Israelis, but first and foremost the creation of potential for regional strategic change, the essence of which is the loss of fear of Israel in the Middle East.
The leadership of Hamas, including Salah al-Aruri, watches with pleasure the atrocities of October 7
In October 1973, the Middle Eastern fantasy that "the Jews can be thrown into the sea" was abandoned.
In October 2023 - the Toyota and RPG gunmen from Gaza reignited the imagination of many among the half a billion Muslims surrounding the Jewish state.
A country of less than 10 million people.
More and more people in the region think it's time to stop being afraid of Israel.
This is the hard news from the events of October 7.
"Certain fear of the collapse of deterrence"
In analytical language it is called: "certain fear of the collapse of Israeli deterrence in the region".
This concern reduces Israel's flexibility regarding the results of the campaign.
Israel must now win.
A definite victory.
A sour draw will be a dangerous loss.
The Israeli leadership needs to understand that it is no longer possible to be satisfied with a "sense of victory" among the Israeli public.
The focus must be on the feeling of the millions that surround us.
There must be a consciousness of a clear Israeli victory.
We must not leave our children in a situation where they will stop fearing us in the Middle East.
Such a situation will lead to chronic instability, which will eventually result in massive bloodshed in the region.
Those who want peace and stability must strive for a definite Israeli victory at this time.
The destruction in the Gaza Strip, today, photo: Arab Networks
The task of defeating Hamas in Gaza becomes complex considering the fact that the Israeli leadership refuses to coordinate expectations with the Israeli public and our friends in the world.
The leadership does not define the dissolution of Hamas in minimal measurable conditions, the main of which are the expulsion of the remaining members of the military wing who are left alive from Gaza, the demilitarization of Gaza from heavy weapons and the seizure of security buffer zones for a long time.
"Change of Front"
The lack of coordination of expectations increases the pressure on the US to end the war, and above all contributes to public and media pressure to reduce the goals of the war to the release of the abductees at any cost. It is doubtful whether a victory in Gaza is enough to return fear to the previous equation of relations between Israel and those around us. Certainly not a victory of reason Its essence will be the release of the kidnapped and confidence-building steps for the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Even those whose entire perception in the last 30 years is based on the idea of Palestinian independence as a core component of Israel's security cannot ignore the consequences of establishing such a state as a result of an Israeli military defeat in Gaza.
That's not how deterrence is restored, that's not how you survive in the Middle East.
If the mud of the Gaza tunnels, the pressure from the US and the issue of the abductees will bring the leadership to the realization that there is no ability to present a clear victory on this front, one that will lead to a strategic change in the region, they should consider switching fronts and restoring Israeli deterrence by removing the strategic threat in Lebanon.
The Iranian axis.
Meeting between Iranian President Raisi and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, June 2023, photo: AP
Initiative and victory against one of the richest and most powerful terrorist organizations in the world can restore deterrence in the region in general, and against the pro-Iranian axis in particular.
It is impossible for Israel to be satisfied with tactical achievements on both fronts while the axis of evil led by Iran will enjoy tremendous strategic achievements and continue to establish a growing threat around Israel.
Israel must remove the threat from the north and dismantle the building of power that Hezbollah built in Lebanon, regardless of the situation in the south, but without victory in the south - a substantial achievement in the north becomes doubly important.
Today it is clear to everyone that removing the threat in the north is not a question of "if" but a question of "when".
We are required to remove a tangible and immediate threat that exists in the north, and without a doubt - the withdrawal of Raduan forces beyond Litani does not remove it.
disrupt the Iranian plan
Israel must disrupt the Iranian plans for a future large and multi-front war against it, at a convenient time for Tehran and while its capabilities mature.
Waiting for the time when the Iranians decide to start a multi-front war will be a strategic error, which will charge higher prices than the prices of the current conflict.
Most of all - we need to restore Israeli deterrence and the fear of a decisive Israeli response.
In Gaza we have not yet achieved this.
The October War must end with a strategic change as Netanyahu and Gantz pledged at the beginning of the fighting.
Strategic deterrence is more important today than routine security gains or revenge.
Eighth graders, in Gantz's words, must not, upon reaching military age, have to deal with the lack of performance of the leadership and the IDF at the present time. It is impossible today to settle for less than victory, at least on one front. If there is no victory in Gaza, the time has come for us to prepare the public for the campaign in the north.
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